CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6): Simulation design and preliminary results
Get PDFWe present a suite of new climate model experiment designs for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). This set of experiments, named GeoMIP6 (to be consistent with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), builds on the previous GeoMIP project simulations, and has been expanded to address several further important topics, including key uncertainties in extreme events, the use of geoengineering as part of a portfolio of responses to climate change, and the relatively new idea of cirrus cloud thinning to allow more longwave radiation to escape to space. We discuss experiment designs, as well as the rationale for those designs, showing preliminary results from individual models when available. We also introduce a new feature, called the GeoMIP Testbed, which provides a platform for simulations that will be performed with a few models and subsequently assessed to determine whether the proposed experiment designs will be adopted as core (Tier 1) GeoMIP experiments. This is meant to encourage various stakeholders to propose new targeted experiments that address their key open science questions, with the goal of making GeoMIP more relevant to a broader set of communities.publishedVersio
Climate projections for local adaptation in the Hindu-Kush Himalayas
Get PDFThis report is an output of the Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP). The aim of this report is to present downscaled climate scenarios in a relevant, understandable and illustrative manner for a diverse group of end-users and stakeholders, including other HICAP research components decision-makers at different levels.
This report is based on dynamically downscaled temperature and precipitation projections for 8 different domains in the Hindu-Kush Himalayas. It uses the HICAP model (the WRF model, driven by the NorESM GCM model) for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Comparing model results with local observations for a reference period (1996-2005, the output was corrected for various under- and overestimations. For each domain, projections for periods 1996-2005, 2010-2030, 2030-2050 and 2050-2080 are presented a) in figures relevant for local users and decision makers, b) in a simplified text summing up the projections, and briefly discussing them in relation to potential impacts.
This report provides highly relevant, locally specific results for the HICAP region, and relates these to geographical variations within each domain across the Himalayas. No other models and projections have been used in this report, and the HICAP model results should be compared with other sources of information for a final assessment of local climate change and impacts. The usability of the report extends beyond the HICAP project: the model-adjustment method, aimed at showing how to make projections realistic and relevant at the local level, the ease of the calculations and the guided interpretations of the figures and projections can serve as a guide to model use and presentations anywhere, provided the availability of a minimal amount of observations to compare and adjust larger scale model outputs to local climate observations for a certain reference period
Institutional Analysis for Climate Services Development and Delivery in Tanzania
Get PDFThis report is an output of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) Adaptation Programme in Africa. The goal of the report is to describe and assess the current institutional landscape for development and delivery of climate services in Tanzania and to suggest pathways for leveraging current opportunities, as well as for addressing current institutional barriers, to enable improved production, access, and use of climate services in Tanzania. This report is based on a review of relevant policy documents and grey literature, focus group discussions with communities in Longido and Kiteto Districts, and key informant interviews with selected policy-makers, authorities, and non-governmental actors at national and district levels involved in the fields of agriculture and food security, health, and disaster risk reduction and management. The report findings suggest that there are four major institutional challenges to the delivery of usable climate services across institutional scales in Tanzania: 1) potential mismatches between national institutional arrangements and legal mandates, 2) limited technical, financial, and human resources, 3) lack of sufficient mechanisms to facilitate systematic flows of information between government agencies, both vertically and horizontally, and 4) limited specialized climate change knowledge and expertise within government structures. Recommendations are made for addressing these challenge
Elektrisitet sertifikater: Empirisk studie av investeringsbarrierer
No full textIn 2012, Norway and Sweden implemented a common market for tradable green certificates to achieve each country's renewable-energy target. This is the first example of a cooperation mechanism that the EU has suggested to improve the cost efficiency of its renewable-energy policies. We asked investors in 446 planned hydropower projects in Norway what type of barriers may prevent their project from being realized under this scheme, and how likely it is that their project will be realized. Based on a regression analysis we find that the responses to these questions vary systematically with investor, project and process characteristics. We find that investors are concerned with capacity barriers imposed on the market because of the short duration and abrupt termination of the subsidy scheme at the end of 2020. Consequently, the cost efficiency of this and similar schemes can be improved by choosing a better design. Moreover, experienced investors and local landowners without previous experience in the energy sector responded differently to these questions. Local landowners were more optimistic, less concerned with capacity barriers and more concerned with economic barriers than experienced investors were. These observations are interesting given the recent emergence of new investors in the renewable energy sector.Elektrisitet sertifikater: Empirisk studie av investeringsbarriererpublishedVersio
Endogenous Minimum Participation in International Environmental Agreements: An Experimental Analysis
Get PDFThis is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Environmental and Resource Economics. The final authenticated version is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-014-9800-1Almost all international environmental treaties require a minimum number of countries to ratify the treaty before it enters into force. Despite the wide-spread use of this mechanism, little is known about its effectiveness at facilitating cooperation. We analyze an agreement formation game that includes an endogenously determined minimum participation constraint and then test the predictions using economic experiments. We demonstrate theoretically that players will vote to implement an efficient coalition size as the membership requirement and this coalition will form. Experimental tests of the theory demonstrate that the minimum participation mechanism is highly effective at facilitating cooperation when efficiency requires the participation of all players. However, when efficiency requires only a subset of players to participate, profitable coalitions are often deliberately blocked. In light of our results it is possible that equity concerns can impede the formation of international agreements when membership requirements allow free riders.submittedVersio
Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China
Get PDFearly three-quarters of the growth in global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and cement production between 2010 and 2012 occurred in China1, 2. Yet estimates of Chinese emissions remain subject to large uncertainty; inventories of China’s total fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2008 differ by 0.3 gigatonnes of carbon, or 15 per cent1, 3, 4, 5. The primary sources of this uncertainty are conflicting estimates of energy consumption and emission factors, the latter being uncertain because of very few actual measurements representative of the mix of Chinese fuels. Here we re-evaluate China’s carbon emissions using updated and harmonized energy consumption and clinker production data and two new and comprehensive sets of measured emission factors for Chinese coal. We find that total energy consumption in China was 10 per cent higher in 2000–2012 than the value reported by China’s national statistics6, that emission factors for Chinese coal are on average 40 per cent lower than the default values recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change7, and that emissions from China’s cement production are 45 per cent less than recent estimates1, 4. Altogether, our revised estimate of China’s CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production is 2.49 gigatonnes of carbon (2 standard deviations = ±7.3 per cent) in 2013, which is 14 per cent lower than the emissions reported by other prominent inventories1, 4, 8. Over the full period 2000 to 2013, our revised estimates are 2.9 gigatonnes of carbon less than previous estimates of China’s cumulative carbon emissions1, 4. Our findings suggest that overestimation of China’s emissions in 2000–2013 may be larger than China’s estimated total forest sink in 1990–2007 (2.66 gigatonnes of carbon)9 or China’s land carbon sink in 2000–2009 (2.6 gigatonnes of carbon)10.submittedVersio
Grønne sertifikater eller feed-in tariffer--en artikkel om risiko
No full textWorldwide, renewable electricity projects are granted production support to ensure competitiveness. Depending on the design of these support schemes, the cash inflows to investment projects will be more or less exposed to fluctuations in electricity and/or subsidy prices. Furthermore, as renewable electricity technologies mature, there is a possibility that the current support scheme will be terminated or revised in ways that make it less generous or more in line with market mechanism. Using a real options approach, we examine how investors in power projects respond to such market and policy risks. We show that: (1) due to price diversification, the differences in market risk between support schemes like tradeable green certificates, feed-in premiums and feed-in tariffs are less than commonly believed; (2) the prospects of termination will slow down investments if it is retroactively applied, but speed up investments if it is not; and, (3) this policy uncertainty may add a substantial risk to investments, especially in the first case where investors expect future curtailment of subsidies to affect new and old installations alike. We conclude the paper by discussing the division of risk between investor and government.Grønne sertifikater eller feed-in tariffer--en artikkel om risikopublishedVersio
World Bank (IBRD)
No full textCategory: Second Opinion, Sector: Development, Issuer type: Financial Institution, Shading: Not shadedpublishedVersio
