CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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Redusert oljeutvinning som klimatiltak: Faglige og politiske perspektiver
Get PDFÅ regulere produksjonen av fossile energiressurser har fått økt oppmerksomhet i klimadebatten de siste årene. Mens klimapolitikken tradisjonelt har vært orientert mot å begrense etterspørselen etter kull, olje og gass, er det nå voksende interesse for også å diskutere politiske tiltak rettet mot å begrense tilbudet av fossil energi. Dette gjelder også debatten om norsk olje- og klimapolitikk, med økende oppmerksomhet om hvordan det norske petroleumsregimet bør innrettes for å være i tråd med de langsiktige klimamålene i Paris-avtalen. Karbonbudsjettet for Paris-avtalens temperaturmål tilsier at rommet for bruk av eksisterende olje- og gassreserver er knapt. For å unngå at samfunnsutviklingen låses til et fossilt energisystem som kan vanskeliggjøre framtidige utslippsreduksjoner eller øke omstillingskostnadene, kan det derfor være behov for å kombinere politiske tiltak for redusert etterspørsel etter fossil energi, med en viss regulering også av tilbudssiden. Både i faglitteraturen og i den politiske debatten er det et bredt spekter av synspunkter på hvor sterk politisk regulering av tilbudssiden som kan være fornuftig. Dette notatet gir en oversikt over det faglige grunnlaget for å diskutere denne typen tiltak, og forsøker å systematisere de ulike perspektivene som finnes i den politiske debatten – både globalt og i Norge
Science as a "fixed point" Quantification and boundary objects in international climate politics
Get PDFOur understanding of climate change is dominated by quantified scientific knowledge, with science and politics usually seen as operating separately and autonomously from one another. By investigating a particular fact box in the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), this paper challenges the assumption that science and policy can be clearly delineated. The so-called “Bali Box” gained a prominent role in negotiations leading up to the Copenhagen Conference in 2009, as it was widely seen as providing a “fixed point” – a quantified scientific answer to the question of equitable effort-sharing between North and South. This understanding of the Bali Box triggered a backlash, however, when the hybrid character of the box as an assemblage of science, political considerations and moral judgements became evident to actors in the negotiations. The paper employs the notion of boundary objects to analyse the history of the Bali Box, and argues that climate politics will benefit from a richer understanding of the interplay between science and policy. Moving beyond characterizations that place the Bali Box on either side of a clear boundary between the scientific and the political, we suggest focusing instead on what the Box as a hybrid product is doing, i.e. how it simplifies and quantifies, what it covers and what it leaves outside.acceptedVersio
Västra Götalandsregionen (VGR)
Get PDFCategory: Second Opinion, Sector: Municipal Government, Issuer type: Local Government, Shading: Medium GreenpublishedVersio
Norges klimamål for 2030. Fra global til europeisk kostnadseffektivitet
Get PDFFra Kyoto-protokollens ovenfra og ned-system, så man i oppløpet til Paris-toppmøtet i 2015 en dreining mot mer nasjonalt ansvar. Dette gjorde at de framtidige mulighetene for å kutte utslipp i utviklingsland, måten Norge har overholdt tidligere klimamål, var uklare. Når en mulighet forsvant, dukket imidlertid en annen mulighet opp og denne muligheten stod EU for. Dette resulterte i Norges klimamål for 2030; innen 2030 skal Norge redusere klimagassutslipp med 40 prosent sammenlignet med nivået i 1990. Det nye med denne målsettingen er at Norge ønsker å samkjøre klimamålet med EUs forpliktelse for samme periode.
Suverenitetsavståelse blir altså sett på som en større mulighet sammenlignet med en uavhengig, nasjonal klimapolitikk. Norges klimamål for 2030 markerer derfor et skille i norsk klimapolitikk der den globale kostnadseffektiviteten erstattes med europeisk kostnadseffektivitet. Dreiningen er likevel et resultat av tidligere norske klimapolitiske vedtak tatt på begynnelsen av 1990-tallet. I tillegg ser vi at klimamålet ikke er et resultat av faglige vurderinger gjort i embetsverket, men at det snarere var et politisk produkt drevet fram av regjeringspolitikere fra Høyre. Ønsket om en EU-tilknytning hadde derfor ikke noe med EU i seg selv å gjøre, men var utelukkende drevet av et internt behov, der en EU-tilknytning ikke ble sett på som noe annet enn en strategisk måte å løse en nasjonal utfordring
The vulnerability and resilience of smallholder-inclusive agricultural investments in Tanzania
Get PDFThis paper compares and contrasts two cases of smallholderinclusive agricultural investment in Tanzania and investigates the factors that shape their vulnerability and resilience to risks and uncertainties that influence their performance and viability as a development strategy. Drawing on observations and interviews with smallholders, key informants and management and staff of two large-scale rice and sugarcane estates, we discuss how the division of ownership, voice, risks and rewards in these investments affect how small- and large-scale producers negotiate their relationships in practice, highlighting the role of the state and political economy factors in shaping these dynamics. We find that a lack of transparent and reliable policies and mechanisms for governing access to land, resolving contractual disputes, and marketing the crops in question reinforces power asymmetries between the participants, undermining the potential development impacts of both investments. The two estates moreover appear to enjoy different levels of state protection that render their commercial operations more or less vulnerable and resilient to various political and economic risks. We conclude that smallholder-inclusive agro-investments in Tanzania are unlikely to fulfil both a commercial and a development function in the absence of consistent, transparent and enforceable ‘rules of the game’ that incentivize and reward responsible agricultural investment behaviour.publishedVersio
Climate Change and International Relations (After Kyoto)
Get PDFThis review “diagnoses” climate change as an international governance challenge and explores the political feasibility of alternative “cures.” Human activities’ growing effect on Earth's climate system is extremely challenging, characterized by, inter alia, very long time lags between mitigation measures (∼costs) and environmental effects (∼benefits) and by stark asymmetries between “guilt” in causing the problem and vulnerability to climate change. Two main cures have been suggested. Some analysts argue that because climate change is a global process, adequate solutions must likewise be global. Others shift attention from the challenge's format to the sources of human motivation, arguing that a decentralized (bottom-up) approach will more directly engage a wider spectrum of motivations and actors. These cures are neither mutually exclusive nor easily combined. IR research contributes more to the former cure than to the latter but can play a constructive role in linking them.acceptedVersio
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC)
Get PDFCategory: Second Opinion, Sector: Banking, Issuer type: Financial Institution, Shading: Dark GreenpublishedVersio
Oslo Bolig Og Sparelag (OBOS)
No full textCategory: Second Opinion, Sector: Real Estate, Issuer type: Corporate, Shading: Medium GreenpublishedVersio
The Imperatives of Sustainable Development
Get PDFThe United Nations sustainable development goals are under fire. By attempting to cover all that is good and desirable in society, these targets have ended up as vague and meaningless. We suggest a model for sustainable development based on three moral imperatives: satisfying human needs, ensuring social equity, and respecting environmental limits. The model reflects Our Common Future's central message, moral imperatives laid out in philosophical texts on needs and equity and recent scientific insights on environmental limits. The model is in conflict with the popular three-pillar model of sustainable development, which seeks to balance social, environmental and economic targets. Rather, we argue that sustainable development constitutes a set of constraints on human behavior, including constraints on economic activity. By identifying indicators, and thresholds, we illustrate that different regions or group of countries face different challenges.publishedVersionacceptedVersio
Regional temperature change potentials for short-lived climate forcers based on radiative forcing from multiple models
No full textWe calculate the absolute regional temperature change potential (ARTP) of various short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) based on detailed radiative forcing (RF) calculations from four different models. The temperature response has been estimated for four latitude bands (90–28° S, 28° S–28° N, 28–60° N, and 60–90° N). The regional pattern in climate response not only depends on the relationship between RF and surface temperature, but also on where and when emissions occurred and atmospheric transport, chemistry, interaction with clouds, and deposition. We present four emissions cases covering Europe, East Asia, the global shipping sector, and the entire globe. Our study is the first to estimate ARTP values for emissions during Northern Hemisphere summer (May–October) and winter season (November–April). The species studied are aerosols and aerosol precursors (black carbon, organic carbon, SO2, NH3), ozone precursors (NOx, CO, volatile organic compound), and methane (CH4). For the response to BC in the Arctic, we take into account the vertical structure of the RF in the atmosphere, and an enhanced climate efficacy for BC deposition on snow. Of all SLCFs, BC is the most sensitive to where and when the emissions occur, as well as giving the largest difference in response between the latitude bands. The temperature response in the Arctic per unit BC emission is almost four times larger and more than two times larger than the global average for Northern Hemisphere winter emissions for Europe and East Asia, respectively. The latitudinal breakdown likely gives a better estimate of the global temperature response as it accounts for varying efficacies with latitude. An annual pulse of non-methane SLCF emissions globally (representative of 2008) lead to a global cooling. In contrast, winter emissions in Europe and East Asia give a net warming in the Arctic due to significant warming from BC deposition on snow.submittedVersio