CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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1083 research outputs found
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Climate Change and International Relations (After Kyoto)
Get PDFThis review “diagnoses” climate change as an international governance challenge and explores the political feasibility of alternative “cures.” Human activities’ growing effect on Earth's climate system is extremely challenging, characterized by, inter alia, very long time lags between mitigation measures (∼costs) and environmental effects (∼benefits) and by stark asymmetries between “guilt” in causing the problem and vulnerability to climate change. Two main cures have been suggested. Some analysts argue that because climate change is a global process, adequate solutions must likewise be global. Others shift attention from the challenge's format to the sources of human motivation, arguing that a decentralized (bottom-up) approach will more directly engage a wider spectrum of motivations and actors. These cures are neither mutually exclusive nor easily combined. IR research contributes more to the former cure than to the latter but can play a constructive role in linking them.acceptedVersio
Agence Française de Développement (AfD)
No full textCategory: Second Opinion, Sector: Development, Issuer type: Financial Institution, Shading: Medium GreenpublishedVersio
Sensitivity of black carbon concentrations and climate impact to aging and scavenging in OsloCTM2-M7
Get PDFAccurate representation of black carbon (BC) concentrations in climate models is a key prerequisite for understanding its net climate impact. BC aging and scavenging are treated very differently in current models. Here, we examine the sensitivity of three-dimensional (3-D), temporally resolved BC concentrations to perturbations to individual model processes in the chemistry transport model OsloCTM2–M7. The main goals are to identify processes related to aerosol aging and scavenging where additional observational constraints may most effectively improve model performance, in particular for BC vertical profiles, and to give an indication of how model uncertainties in the BC life cycle propagate into uncertainties in climate impacts. Coupling OsloCTM2 with the microphysical aerosol module M7 allows us to investigate aging processes in more detail than possible with a simpler bulk parameterization. Here we include, for the first time in this model, a treatment of condensation of nitric acid on BC. Using kernels, we also estimate the range of radiative forcing and global surface temperature responses that may result from perturbations to key tunable parameters in the model. We find that BC concentrations in OsloCTM2–M7 are particularly sensitive to convective scavenging and the inclusion of condensation by nitric acid. The largest changes are found at higher altitudes around the Equator and at low altitudes over the Arctic. Convective scavenging of hydrophobic BC, and the amount of sulfate required for BC aging, are found to be key parameters, potentially reducing bias against HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) flight-based measurements by 60 to 90 %. Even for extensive tuning, however, the total impact on global-mean surface temperature is estimated to less than 0.04 K. Similar results are found when nitric acid is allowed to condense on the BC aerosols. We conclude, in line with previous studies, that a shorter atmospheric BC lifetime broadly improves the comparison with measurements over the Pacific. However, we also find that the model–measurement discrepancies can not be uniquely attributed to uncertainties in a single process or parameter. Model development therefore needs to be focused on improvements to individual processes, supported by a broad range of observational and experimental data, rather than tuning of individual, effective parameters such as the global BC lifetime.publishedVersio
Quantum Solar Scatec
No full textCategory: Second Opinion, Sector: Energy, Issuer type: Corporate, Shading: Dark GreenpublishedVersio
Swedish-Norwegian tradable green certificates: Scheme design flaws and perceived investment barriers
Get PDFThe EU Commission recommends using market-based support schemes for renewable-electricity projects. One example is the Swedish-Norwegian tradable green certificate scheme. We examine whether design features in the Norwegian part of this scheme, specifically, the scheme's short duration and the way it is to be abruptly terminated, contribute to investors' perceptions of barriers. We apply econometric techniques on primary data collected in two surveys of Norwegian investors in hydropower, and we use real options theory to predict and interpret investors' responses. We show that: (1) immediately after the scheme was introduced, investors are eager to lock in future subsidies by investing immediately and concerned with factors that may delay the completion of their projects; (2) as the certificate deadline neared, investors have become increasingly pessimistic and concerned with economic and risk barriers. Investors in big hydropower plants with regulation reservoirs are particularly concerned with the risk of not completing their projects in time to gain the right to sell certificates. These findings are consistent with the predicted responses to the scheme design derived from real options theory. In contrast to earlier studies, we find no difference in responses to the scheme design across investor types.publishedVersio
Poland’s renewable energy policy mix: European influence and domestic soap opera
Get PDFPoland’s energy mix is dominated by indigenous coal, and since the country joined the European Union in 2004 it has been clear that it will do much to safeguard its domestic coal sector and resist pressures for ambitious harmonized decarbonization efforts. At the same time, Poland is meeting its renewable energy targets and its onshore wind capacity is growing at a significant pace. In 2015 and 2016, a new renewable energy policy mix has been put in place, relying on tenders for renewable energy volume in large scale RES and a micro-installations support scheme. In parallel, a capacity mechanism is still on the table, though its details are only being worked out. What explains this particular choice of instruments? In this article I focus on four explanatory factors: the influence of the European environment; domestic political and organizational fields and the material and structural constraints of the energy system and resource endowment. I provide a historical overview of renewable energy policy in Poland since the early 1990s, showing how policy evolved, new actors and coalitions emerged, and how the influence of the EU changed overtime. The preliminary findings suggest that the European environment has been crucial in pushing for stronger RES support policies, while the inherently instable domestic political field explains the soap opera of renewable energy policy legislation: drafts, new plans, amendments and legal instability. On the other hand, the choice of particular instruments, within the confines of options acceptable by the EU, is best explained by the stable and segmented organizational field, dominated by a professional logic of the centralized, engineer-lead coal sector, which in turn is linked to the importance of the country’s resource endowment. In these conditions, the current renewable energy policy mix seems optimal for the actors dominating the organizational field, and a deep paradigm shift and overturning the political economy of the energy sector would be needed to change that
City of Lund
Get PDFCategory: Second Opinion, Sector: Municipal Government, Issuer type: Local Government, Shading: Dark GreenpublishedVersio
Lietuvos Energijas
Get PDFCategory: Second Opinion, Sector: Energy, Issuer type: Corporate, Shading: Dark GreenpublishedVersio
Conditional cooperation and cultural worldviews
Get PDFWe show that conditionally cooperative behavior depends on the cultural worldviews of players in a public goods game. While others have examined the interaction of culture and cooperative behavior by comparing results from different geographic locations, we consider individual cultural measures. Conditional cooperation and pure free-riding behavior is strongly associated with specific worldviews.acceptedVersio