CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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Biblioteket som drivkraft for mer bærekraftig forbruk. Erfaringer fra UPSCALE 2020-24
Get PDFRapporten presenterer utvalgte hovedfunn fra UPSCALE prosjektet. En survey-undersøkelse viser først hvordan interesse for lån av gjenstander fordeler seg i fem kommuner og hvilke faktorer som forklarer dagens utlånsaktivitet. Videre gjennomgås erfaringer fra casestudier i Norge og Danmark der biblioteker har vært engasjert i å promotere og understøtte ulike typer utlån av gjenstander. Den miljømessige effekten en av ulike typer gjenstandsdeling beregnes deretter med utgangspunkt i livssyklus-analyser basert på utlånsscenarier. Avslutningsvis diskuteres fordeler og ulemper ved fire hovedstrategiene som i dag benyttes for gjenstands-utlåning via biblioteker, og hvordan bibliotekene i fremtiden kan legge til rette for bærekraftig utlån av gjenstander.publishedVersio
Carbon and Greenhouse Gas Budgets of Europe: Trends, Interannual and Spatial Variability, and Their Drivers
Get PDFIn the framework of the RECCAP2 initiative, we present the greenhouse gas (GHG) and carbon (C) budget of Europe. For the decade of the 2010s, we present a bottom-up (BU) estimate of GHG net-emissions of 3.9 Pg CO2-eq. yr−1 (using a global warming potential on a 100 years horizon), which are largely dominated by fossil fuel emissions. In this decade, terrestrial ecosystems acted as a net GHG sink of 0.9 Pg CO2-eq. yr−1, dominated by a CO2 sink that was partially counterbalanced by net emissions of CH4 and N2O. For CH4 and N2O, we find good agreement between BU and top-down (TD) estimates from atmospheric inversions. However, our BU land CO2 sink is significantly higher than the TD estimates. We further show that decadal averages of GHG net-emissions have declined by 1.2 Pg CO2-eq. yr−1 since the 1990s, mainly due to a reduction in fossil fuel emissions. In addition, based on both data driven BU and TD estimates, we also find that the land CO2 sink has weakened over the past two decades. A large part of the European CO2 and C sinks is located in Northern Europe. At the same time, we find a decreasing trend in sink strength in Scandinavia, which can be attributed to an increase in forest management intensity. These are partly offset by increasing CO2 sinks in parts of Eastern Europe and Northern Spain, attributed in part to land use change. Extensive regions of high CH4 and N2O emissions are mainly attributed to agricultural activities and are found in Belgium, the Netherlands and the southern UK. We further analyzed interannual variability in the GHG budgets. The drought year of 2003 shows the highest net-emissions of CO2 and of all GHGs combined.Carbon and Greenhouse Gas Budgets of Europe: Trends, Interannual and Spatial Variability, and Their DriverspublishedVersio
Snow depth in high-resolution regional climate model simulations over southern Germany - Suitable for extremes and impact-related research?
Get PDFnow dynamics play a critical role in the climate system, as they affect the water cycle, ecosystems, and society. In climate modelling, the representation of the amount and extent of snow on the land surface is crucial for simulating the mass and energy balance of the climate system. Here, we evaluate simulations of daily snow depths against 83 station observations in southern Germany in an elevation range of 150 to 1000 m over the time period 1987–2018. Two simulations stem from high-resolution regional climate models – the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model at 1.5 km resolution and the COnsortium for Small scale MOdelling model in CLimate Mode (COSMO-CLM; abbreviated to CCLM hereafter) at 3 km resolution. Additionally, the hydrometeorological snow model Alpine MUltiscale Numerical Distributed Simulation ENgine (AMUNDSEN) is run at point scale at the locations of the climate stations, based on the atmospheric output of CCLM. To complement the comparison, the ERA5-Land dataset (9 km), a state-of-the-art reanalysis land-surface product, is also compared. All four simulations are driven by the atmospheric boundary conditions of ERA5. Due to an overestimation of the snow albedo, the WRF simulation features a cold bias of 1.2 °C, leading to the slight overestimation of the snow depth in low-lying areas, whereas the snow depth is underestimated at snow-rich stations. The number of snow days (days with a snow depth above 1 cm) is reproduced well. The WRF simulation can recreate extreme snow depths, i.e. annual maxima of the snow depth, their timings, and inter-station differences, and thereby shows the best performance of all models. The CCLM reproduces the climatic conditions with very low bias and error metrics. However, all snow-related assessments show a strong systematic underestimation, which we relate to deficiencies in the snow module of the land-surface model. When driving AMUNDSEN with the atmospheric output of the CCLM, the results show a slight tendency to overestimate snow depth and number of snow days, especially in the northern parts of the study area. Snow depth extremes are reproduced well. For ERA5-Land (ERA5L), the coarser spatial resolution leads to larger differences between the model elevation and the station elevation, which contributes to a significant correlation of climatic biases with the elevation bias. In addition, the mean snow depth and number of snow days are strongly overestimated, with conditions that are too snowy in the late winter. Extreme snow depth conditions are reproduced well in the low-lying areas, whereas strong deviations occur with more complex topography. In sum, due to the high spatial resolution of convection-permitting climate models, they show the potential to reproduce the winter climate (temperature and precipitation) in southern Germany. However, different sources of uncertainties, i.e. the spatial resolution, the snow albedo parametrisation, and other parametrisations within the snow model, prevent their further use in a straightforward manner for impact research. Hence, careful evaluation is needed before any impact-related interpretation of the simulations, such as in the context of climate change research.publishedVersio
Governing as valuing: Assetization and the making of the Norwegian oil fund
Get PDFRecent scholarship has highlighted ‘assetization’ as an increasingly prevalent process in which valuation practices from financial economics are imposed on new aspects of society. This paper analyses the establishment of the Norwegian ‘oil fund’ – currently the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund – as the outcome of such a process. It traces the shift in the Norwegian government’s valuation arrangements from valuing oil as ‘activity’ in the 1970s towards valuing oil as a ‘national asset’ from the mid-1980s, and shows how this shift happened through close exchanges between economic expertise and governmental procedures. The paper contributes to understanding assetization as a mode of governing by showing both how it happens through governmental tools and practices and how it can have direct material consequences. In the case of Norwegian oil, the introduction of new tools of valuation made the Norwegian government manage the oil resource in a new way, and led to a re-timing of the pace of its extraction. The outcome was speeding up the conversion of oil into financial holdings, and the establishment of the ‘oil fund’ as a new infrastructure for handling oil as a national asset.publishedVersio
Can policy packaging help overcome Pigouvian tax aversion? A labexperiment on combining taxes and subsidies
No full textTax aversion makes it politically challenging to introduce Pigouvian taxes. One proposed solution to overcome this resistance is to package policies. Using an online lab experiment, we investigate whether combining a tax and a subsidy is perceived as more acceptable than the tax or the subsidy alone. The purpose of the policies is to reduce demand for a good with a negative externality to the socially optimal level. We find that support for a combination of a tax and a subsidy equals the simple average of support for the two instruments alone. Combining a tax and a subsidy therefore does not reduce tax aversion. We examine potential mechanisms behind the tax aversion. Participants believe they will receive a lower share of the tax revenue when the tax is implemented alone than when it is combined with a subsidy, i.e. the participants in the tax alone group hold more pessimistic beliefs about the tax revenue. We also find that the participants expect the tax to be more effective in reducing demand for the good with a negative externality than both the subsidy alone and the combinations of tax and subsidy. This belief does not, however, translate into support for the tax.publishedVersio
Efficacy of climate forcings in transient CMIP6 simulations
No full textFor effective radiative forcing (ERF) to be an ideal metric for comparing the strength of different climate drivers (such as CO2 and aerosols), the ratio of radiative forcing to global-mean temperature change must be the same for each driver. Typically, this ratio is divided by the same ratio for CO2 and termed efficacy. Previously it has been shown that efficacy is close to unity in abrupt perturbation experiments for a range of climate drivers, but efficacy with respect to CO2 has not been investigated in transient realistic simulations. Here, we analyse transient simulations from CMIP6 experiments and show comparable results between transient and abrupt perturbation experiments. We demonstrate that aerosol efficacy is not significantly different from unity, however inter-model differences in aerosol experiments are notably large.publishedVersio
Environmental sustainability of food production and consumption in the nordic and baltic region - a scoping review for nordic nutrition recommendations 2023
Get PDFThis scoping review examines environmental impacts related to food production and consumption in Nordic and Baltic countries. The overarching advice to all Nordic and Baltic countries, in line with the current body of scientific literature, is to shift to a more plant based dietary pattern and avoid food waste. Taking into account current consumption patterns, there is a high potential and necessity to shift food consumption across the countries to minimize its environmental impact. More specifically, a substantial reduction in meat and dairy consumption and increased consumption of legumes/pulses, whole grains, vegetables, fruits, nuts and seeds is suggested as a priority intervention. Reducing the environmental impacts of seafoods is also key and suggestions include a shift to seafoods with lower environmental impacts such as seaweed and bivalves. As part of the suggested transition to a more plant-based diet, the scope for increasing the provision of plant-based foods through increasing the cultivation of legumes/pulses, vegetables and grains and through feed-to-food shifts within the region should be explored.acceptedVersio
Flight-intensive practices and wellbeing: current evidence and future research
Get PDFThis article draws on social practice theory and wellbeing perspectives to outline a research framework for the study of flight-intensive practices. The framework is then used to discuss, through a non-systematic review, the social science air travel literature and to propose avenues for future research. We study both the work and leisure domains, with sub-cases for travel in academia and visiting family and friends. We find insights of a complex relationship between flight-intensive practices and wellbeing. On one hand, currently flight-intensive practices are linked to human need fulfilment, particularly in the family and social domains. Leisure-related air travel often enhances subjective wellbeing, as it contributes to positive moods and life satisfaction, but may not be sustained in the long term. On the other hand, flying, particularly frequent flying, hinders wellbeing by increasing levels of stress and health-related issues, and by straining work/life balance. Overall, the study suggests that policies to reduce the demand for air travel may not significantly compromise wellbeing if accompanied by infrastructural and sociocultural changes that support specific groups to still meet their needs for relatedness, participation, or understanding through low carbon transport, videoconferencing, or reducing the total amount of travel. We identify avenues for future research, both to consolidate our understanding of the practice elements that will support a shift away from flight-intensive practices, and to understand their direct effects on wellbeing.Flight-intensive practices and wellbeing: current evidence and future researchpublishedVersio
Fires as a source of annual ambient PM2.5 exposure and chronic health impacts in Europe
Get PDFChronic exposure to ambient PM2.5 is the largest environmental health risk in Europe. We used a chemical transport model and recent exposure response functions to simulate ambient PM2.5, contribution from fires and related health impacts over Europe from 1990 to 2019. Our estimation indicates that the excess death burden from exposure to ambient PM2.5 declined across Europe at a rate of 10,000 deaths per year, from 0.57 million (95 % confidence intervals: 0.44–0.75 million) in 1990 to 0.28 million (0.19–0.42 million) in the specified period. Among these excess deaths, approximately 99 % were among adults, while only around 1 % occurred among children. Our findings reveal a steady increase in fire mortality fractions (excess deaths from fires per 1000 deaths from ambient PM2.5) from 2 in 1990 to 13 in 2019. Notably, countries in Eastern Europe exhibited significantly higher fire mortality fractions and experienced more pronounced increases compared to those in Western and Central Europe. We performed sensitivity analyses by considering fire PM2.5 to be more toxic as compared to other sources, as indicated by recent studies. By considering fire PM2.5 to be more toxic than other PM2.5 sources results in an increased relative contribution of fires to excess deaths, reaching 2.5–13 % in 2019. Our results indicate the requirement of larger mitigation and adaptation efforts and more sustainable forest management policies to avert the rising health burden from fires.publishedVersio
Technical note: Emulation of a large-eddy simulator for stratocumulus clouds in a general circulation model
Get PDFHere we present for the first time a proof of concept for an emulation-based method that uses a large-eddy simulations (LESs) to present sub-grid cloud processes in a general circulation model (GCM). We focus on two key variables affecting the properties of shallow marine clouds: updraft velocity and precipitation formation. The LES is able to describe these processes with high resolution accounting for the realistic variability in cloud properties. We show that the selected emulation method is able to represent the LES outcome with relatively good accuracy and that the updraft velocity and precipitation emulators can be coupled with the GCM practically without increasing the computational costs. We also show that the emulators influence the climate simulated by the GCM but do not consistently improve or worsen the agreement with observations on cloud-related properties, although especially the updraft velocity at cloud base is better captured. A more quantitative evaluation of the emulator impacts against observations would, however, have required model re-tuning, which is a significant task and thus could not be included in this proof-of-concept study. All in all, the approach introduced here is a promising candidate for representing detailed cloud- and aerosol-related sub-grid processes in GCMs. Further development work together with increasing computing capacity can be expected to improve the accuracy and the applicability of the approach in climate simulations.publishedVersio