CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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1083 research outputs found
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En kunnskapsoversikt over klima og kjønn: Byrder, medvirkning og muligheter
Get PDFPåvirkning av klimaendringer og klimatiltak, samt mulighet til å kunne delta og påvirke politikk og virkemidler i omstillingen til lavutslippssamfunnet, er betinget av grupper og enkeltindividers tilgang til ulike ressurser og status i samfunnet. Kjønn og likestilling er viktig i denne sammenhengen fordi kvinner globalt har dårligere tilgang på ressurser som land, inntekt, utdannelse og tjenester som kreditt og informasjon. Kjønnsforskjeller knyttet til klimaendringer bør også forstås i sammenheng med faktorer som alder, klasse, kaste, religion og etnisitet m.m.
I lys av dette har Utenriksdepartementets Seksjon for menneskerettigheter, demokrati og likestilling gitt CICERO Senter for klimaforskning i oppdrag å skrive en litteraturgjennomgang på tema Kjønn og klima.publishedVersio
The transformative potential of local-level planning and climate policies. Case studies from Norwegian municipalities
Get PDFWe analyse whether and how current municipal climate policies can be characterised as transformative and which factors and pathways may lead to transformative change at the municipal level. Based on 13 in-depth case studies of Norwegian municipalities, we address the transformative potential of climate planning and policy measures as defined and implemented by municipal authorities. We argue that municipalities’ engagement in transforming towards a low- emission society must be seen as a continuous process. Our investigation shows that municipal transformative actions are both “broad” and “in-depth”. Our study has identified several frontrunner municipalities whose “green pathways” towards transformation have emerged through historical events. We also identify how these transformative aspects are emphasised by networks and entrepreneurial actors. However, in the majority of municipalities studied, transformative climate policies are challenged by the need for job and business development along with competition over limited resources to fulfil mandatory public service tasks.publishedVersio
Invited perspectives: A research agenda towards disaster risk management pathways in multi-(hazard-)risk assessment
Get PDFWhilst the last decades have seen a clear shift in emphasis from managing natural hazards to managing risk, the majority of natural-hazard risk research still focuses on single hazards. Internationally, there are calls for more attention for multi-hazards and multi-risks. Within the European Union (EU), the concepts of multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment and management have taken centre stage in recent years. In this perspective paper, we outline several key developments in multi-(hazard-)risk research in the last decade, with a particular focus on the EU. We present challenges for multi-(hazard-)risk management as outlined in several research projects and papers. We then present a research agenda for addressing these challenges. We argue for an approach that addresses multi-(hazard-)risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards. In this approach, the starting point is a specific sustainability challenge, rather than an individual hazard or sector, and trade-offs and synergies are examined across sectors, regions, and hazards. We argue for in-depth case studies in which various approaches for multi-(hazard-)risk management are co-developed and tested in practice. Finally, we present a new pan-European research project in which our proposed research agenda will be implemented, with the goal of enabling stakeholders to develop forward-looking disaster risk management pathways that assess trade-offs and synergies of various strategies across sectors, hazards, and spatial scales.publishedVersio
Folk og klima: Utvikling i nordmenns oppfatninger om klimaendringer, klimapolitikk og eget ansvar 2018-2021
Get PDFDenne rapporten gir en oversikt over noen deskriptive resultater fra fire spørreundersøkelser gjort i prosjektet ACT (‘From targets to action: public responses to climate policy instruments’) som er finansiert av Norges forskningsråd. Prosjektet ferdigstilles i løpet av 2022, mens CICEROs klimaundersøkelse fortsetter. Mange av spørsmålene i undersøkelsen presenteres ikke her, men vies grundigere analyser i publiserte og kommende vitenskapelige artikler. Tallene som presenteres i denne rapporten gir oss et bilde av hva nordmenn mener om klimaendringer, klimapolitikk og eget ansvar. Oppsummert viser tallene stor grad av stabilitet over tid, med noen unntak, og mønstrene i forskjeller mellom grupper er også relativt stabile.publishedVersio
Climate change doesn’t win you a climate election: party competition in the 2021 Norwegian general election
Get PDFThe 2021 Norwegian General Election was hailed as a ‘climate election’, yet the Greens only won three seats. What explains the centrality of climate change and why did this not translate into more success for the Greens? The academic literature emphasises the valence nature of climate change, meaning it is a consensus issue and that parties compete on competence. Presenting original voter data, we demonstrate this not to be the case. The Greens faltered not because of a perceived lack of competence, but because of fierce competition which fragmented issue ownership. Moreover, we show that fragmented issue ownership is not the result of voters’ differing views of competence, but the policy options presented by the parties. Our article therefore questions the valence nature of climate change and makes a significant contribution to the literature on the party politics of climate change, as well as on the (re)politicisation of climate politics.publishedVersio
Referansebane for klimagassutslipp i Oslo fram til 2030
Get PDFCICERO Senter for klimaforskning og Transportøkonomisk institutt (TØI) har utarbeidet en referansebane for klimagassutslipp i Oslo kommune fram til 2030 og en beregningsmodell for videre analyser av utslipp og mulige klimatiltak, på oppdrag fra Klimaetaten i Oslo kommune. Referansebanen gir anslag for hvordan klimagassutslippene innenfor Oslos grenser kan utvikle seg hvis det ikke gjennomføres ytterligere klimatiltak etter utgangen av 2021. Resultatene viser at utslippene kan ventes å gå ned fra 2020 til 2030, og betydelig ned i forhold til anslått 2009-nivå, men at allerede gjennomførte tiltak bare oppnår knapt halvdelen av Oslo kommunes klimamål om 95 prosent reduksjon fra 2009 til 2030.publishedVersio
Forest fluxes and mortality response to drought: Model description (ORCHIDEE-CAN-NHA r7236) and evaluation at the Caxiuanã drought experiment
Get PDFExtreme drought events in Amazon forests are expected to become more frequent and more intense with climate change, threatening ecosystem function and carbon balance. Yet large uncertainties exist on the resilience of this ecosystem to drought. A better quantification of tree hydraulics and mortality processes is needed to anticipate future drought effects on Amazon forests. Most state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation models are relatively poor in their mechanistic description of these complex processes. Here, we implement a mechanistic plant hydraulic module within the ORCHIDEE-CAN-NHA r7236 land surface model to simulate the percentage loss of conductance (PLC) and changes in water storage among organs via a representation of the water potentials and vertical water flows along the continuum from soil to roots, stems and leaves. The model was evaluated against observed seasonal variability in stand-scale sap flow, soil moisture and productivity under both control and drought setups at the Caxiuanã throughfall exclusion field experiment in eastern Amazonia between 2001 and 2008. A relationship between PLC and tree mortality is built in the model from two empirical parameters, the cumulated duration of drought exposure that triggers mortality, and the mortality fraction in each day exceeding the exposure. Our model captures the large biomass drop in the year 2005 observed 4 years after throughfall reduction, and produces comparable annual tree mortality rates with observation over the study period. Our hydraulic architecture module provides promising avenues for future research in assimilating experimental data to parameterize mortality due to drought-induced xylem dysfunction. We also highlight that species-based (isohydric or anisohydric) hydraulic traits should be further tested to generalize the model performance in predicting the drought risks.publishedVersio
Perspectives on tipping points in integrated models of the natural and human Earth system: Cascading effects and telecoupling
Get PDFThe Earth system and the human system are intrinsically linked. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have led to the climate crisis, which is causing unprecedented extreme events and could trigger Earth system tipping elements. Physical and social forces can lead to tipping points and cascading effects via feedbacks and telecoupling, but the current generation of climate-economy models do not generally take account of these interactions and feedbacks. Here, we show the importance of the interplay between human societies and Earth systems in creating tipping points and cascading effects and the way they in turn affect sustainability and security. The lack of modeling of these links can lead to an underestimation of climate and societal risks as well as how societal tipping points can be harnessed to moderate physical impacts. This calls for the systematic development of models for a better integration and understanding of Earth and human systems at different spatial and temporal scales, specifically those that enable decision-making to reduce the likelihood of crossing local or global tipping points.publishedVersio
Precipitation frequency in Med-CORDEX and EURO-CORDEX ensembles from 0.44° to convection-permitting resolution: impact of model resolution and convection representation
Get PDFRecent studies using convection-permitting (CP) climate simulations have demonstrated a step-change in the representation of heavy rainfall and rainfall characteristics (frequency-intensity) compared to coarser resolution Global and Regional climate models. The goal of this study is to better understand what explains the weaker frequency of precipitation in the CP ensemble by assessing the triggering process of precipitation in the different ensembles of regional climate simulations available over Europe. We focus on the statistical relationship between tropospheric temperature, humidity and precipitation to understand how the frequency of precipitation over Europe and the Mediterranean is impacted by model resolution and the representation of convection (parameterized vs. explicit). We employ a multi-model data-set with three different resolutions (0.44°, 0.11° and 0.0275°) produced in the context of the MED-CORDEX, EURO-CORDEX and the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study "Convective Phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean" (FPSCONV). The multi-variate approach is applied to all model ensembles, and to several surface stations where the integrated water vapor (IWV) is derived from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements. The results show that all model ensembles capture the temperature dependence of the critical value of IWV (IWVcv), above which an increase in precipitation frequency occurs, but the differences between the models in terms of the value of IWVcv, and the probability of its being exceeded, can be large at higher temperatures. The lower frequency of precipitation in convection-permitting simulations is not only explained by higher temperatures but also by a higher IWVcv necessary to trigger precipitation at similar temperatures, and a lower probability to exceed this critical value. The spread between models in simulating IWVcv and the probability of exceeding IWVcv is reduced over land in the ensemble of models with explicit convection, especially at high temperatures, when the convective fraction of total precipitation becomes more important and the influence of the representation of entrainment in models thus becomes more important. Over lowlands, both model resolution and convection representation affect precipitation triggering while over mountainous areas, resolution has the highest impact due to orography-induced triggering processes. Over the sea, since lifting is produced by large-scale convergence, the probability to exceed IWVcv does not depend on temperature, and the model resolution does not have a clear impact on the results.Precipitation frequency in Med-CORDEX and EURO-CORDEX ensembles from 0.44° to convection-permitting resolution: impact of model resolution and convection representationpublishedVersio
Description of a 1.5°C scenario with chosen measures
Get PDFIn the Paris Agreement, it was agreed to limit global warming to well below 2°C, and preferably to 1.5°C,
compared to pre-industrial levels. At the follow-up meeting in Glasgow in 2021, the goal was strengthened to 1.5°C. Based on previous studies and a review of the relevant policies and measures to achieve the 1.5°C target, this report describes one specific 1.5°C scenario with chosen measures that will be used in three models, i.e., a global macroeconomic computable general equilibrium model GRACE, a global energy market model FRISBEE, and a Norwegian macroeconometric model KVARTS. Our chosen
1.5°C pathway follows roughly the pathway of total CO2 emissions from fossil fuels combustion in the Net Zero Emission scenario by the International Energy Agency. We present possible supply-side and demand-side measures in the energy sectors that can be implemented to reduce CO2-emissions to achieve the 1.5°C target. We also discuss to what extent we will implement these policies and measures in the three models.publishedVersio