CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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Regional scenarioanalyse av klimagassutslipp for Troms
Full text linkCICERO og Transportøkonomisk institutt har utarbeidet utslippsbaner for Troms, fram mot 2035. For det første er det utarbeidet utslippsbaner fram mot 2035. Det er laget en referansebane, det vil si et anslag for hvordan klimagassutslippene kan tenkes å utvikle seg hvis det ikke iverksettes noen nye klimatiltak etter 2023. I tillegg er det identifisert en rekke mulige klimatiltak og utviklet tiltaksscenarier som gir et anslag på hvor mye utslippene kan reduseres hvis disse tiltakene gjennomføres. Det er anslått hvor mye elektrisitet og bioenergi det trengs for å gjennomføre tiltakene. Hvordan tiltakene kan påvirke arealbruk og natur er også beskrevet. For det andre er det utarbeidet utslippsbaner fram mot 2050. Også her er det utarbeidet en referansebane og tiltaksscenarier. Analysen, både fram mot 2035 og 2050, omfatter de utslippene som inngår i Miljødirektoratets kommunefordelte klimagassregnskap.publishedVersio
Comparison of observation- and inventory-based methane emissions for eight large global emitters
Full text linkMonitoring the spatial distribution and trends in surface greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes, as well as flux attribution to natural and anthropogenic processes, is essential to track progress under the Paris Agreement and to inform its global stocktake. This study updates earlier syntheses (Petrescu et al., 2020, 2021, 2023), provides a consolidated synthesis of CH4 emissions using bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) approaches for the European Union (EU), and is expanded to include seven additional countries with large anthropogenic and/or natural emissions (the USA, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo)). Our aim is to demonstrate the use of different emission estimates to help improve national GHG emission inventories for a diverse geographical range of stakeholders. We use updated national GHG inventories (NGHGIs) reported by Annex I parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2023 and the latest available biennial update reports (BURs) reported by non-Annex I parties. Comparing NGHGIs with other approaches highlights that different system boundaries are a key source of divergence. A key system boundary difference is whether anthropogenic and natural fluxes are included and, if they are, how fluxes belonging to these two sources are partitioned. Over the studied period, the total CH4 emission estimates in the EU, the USA, and Russia show a steady decreasing trend since 1990, while for the non-Annex I emitters analyzed in this study, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and DR Congo, CH4 emissions have generally increased. Quantitatively, in the EU the mean of 2015–2020 anthropogenic UNFCCC NGHGIs (15±1.8 Tg CH4 yr−1) and the mean of the BU CH4 emissions (17.8 (16–19) Tg CH4 yr−1) generally agree on the magnitude, while inversions show higher emission estimates (medians of 21 (19–22) Tg CH4 yr−1 and 24 (22–25) Tg CH4 yr−1 for the three regional and six global inversions, respectively), as they include natural emissions, which for the EU were quantified at 6.6 Tg CH4 yr−1 (Petrescu et al., 2023). Similarly, for the other Annex I parties in this study (the USA and Russia), the gap between the BU anthropogenic and total TD emissions is partly explained by the natural emissions. For the non-Annex I parties, anthropogenic CH4 estimates from UNFCCC BURs show large differences compared to the other global-inventory-based estimates and even more compared to atmospheric ones. This poses an important potential challenge to monitoring the progress of the global CH4 pledge and the global stocktake. Our analysis provides a useful baseline to prepare for the influx of inventories from non-Annex I parties as regular reporting starts under the enhanced transparency framework of the Paris Agreement. By systematically comparing the BU and TD methods, this study provides recommendations for more robust comparisons of available data sources and hopes to steadily engage more parties in using observational methods to complement their UNFCCC inventories, as well as considering their natural emissions. With anticipated improvements in atmospheric modeling and observations, as well as modeling of natural fluxes, future development needs to resolve knowledge gaps in the BU and TD approaches and to better quantify the remaining uncertainty. TD methods may emerge as a powerful tool to help improve NGHGIs of CH4 emissions, but further confidence is needed in the comparability and robustness of the estimates. The referenced datasets related to figures are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12818506 (Petrescu et al., 2024).Comparison of observation- and inventory-based methane emissions for eight large global emitterspublishedVersio
Climate extremes and risks: links between climate science and decision-making
Full text linkThe World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a future where actionable climate information is universally accessible, supporting decision makers in preparing for and responding to climate change. In this perspective, we advocate for enhancing links between climate science and decision-making through a better and more decision-relevant understanding of climate impacts. The proposed framework comprises three pillars: climate science, impact science, and decision-making, focusing on generating seamless climate information from sub-seasonal, seasonal, decadal to century timescales informed by observed climate events and their impacts. The link between climate science and decision-making has strengthened in recent years, partly owing to undeniable impacts arising from disastrous weather extremes. Enhancing decision-relevant understanding involves utilizing lessons from past extreme events and implementing impact-based early warning systems to improve resilience. Integrated risk assessment and management require a comprehensive approach that encompasses good knowledge about possible impacts, hazard identification, monitoring, and communication of risks while acknowledging uncertainties inherent in climate predictions and projections, but not letting the uncertainty lead to decision paralysis. The importance of data accessibility, especially in the Global South, underscores the need for better coordination and resource allocation. Strategic frameworks should aim to enhance impact-related and open-access climate services around the world. Continuous improvements in predictive modeling and observational data are critical, as is ensuring that climate science remains relevant to decision makers locally and globally. Ultimately, fostering stronger collaborations and dedicated investments to process and tailor climate data will enhance societal preparedness, enabling communities to navigate the complexities of a changing climate effectively.publishedVersio
Environmental impact of Norwegian food and beverages: compilation of a life cycle assessment food database
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Ruminating on sustainable food systems in a net-zero world
Full text linkFor as long as sustainable food systems have been on the global agenda, the meaning of ‘sustainable’ has been hotly debated. Discussing the use and abuse of the term sustainability in the food-system context, we select a specific case to illustrate this discussion, examine various sustainability arguments and propose ways forward for reduced meat aligned with local values and global needs. A contextual, transparent and nuanced debate can avoid policies informed by vested interests and straw-man arguments, which can backfire and hurt many of the very interests that the sector and policies aim to protect.acceptedVersio
The chicken or the egg? Spillover between private climate action and climate policy support
Full text linkPeople engage in many different activities with climate consequences, including mundane everyday activities, such as eating meals and either saving or throwing away leftovers, and collective actions, such as voting, participating in political events and in other ways expressing support for or resistance against climate-relevant policy. Does engaging in everyday climate-relevant activities have implications for support of climate policy, and vice versa, as suggested by research on pro-environmental behavioural spillover? A repeated survey was collected yearly between 2018 and 2022 from representative samples of Norwegians, most of whom participated in more than one survey. The surveys included self-reports about two everyday climate-relevant behaviours (eating red meat and discarding food waste) and the support for two types of policy to mitigate climate change (expansion of wind power and “carbon taxes” – the use of taxes or fees to regulate climate-relevant behaviour). Cross-lagged structural equation modelling of relationships between everyday climate-relevant behaviour and support for mitigation policy reveal that, as expected, all auto-regressive effects (of a latent variable on itself, measured one year apart) are highly significant. There are also significant, positive cross-lagged (i.e., spillover) effects, which are generally bigger between the two types of everyday behaviours and support for the two types of policies than between everyday behaviour and policy support. However, support for carbon taxes has a strong positive effect on reducing meat consumption. Hence, it appears that when it comes to climate actions, consumer and citizen roles are intertwined. Spillover effects are partly mediated through climate concern.publishedVersio
“Robots taking over the world… fantastic!” Understanding social representations, familiarity and visions of experiments with autonomous public transportation
Full text linkAutonomous public transport (APT) represents a potentially important innovation in the transition to a low-carbon transport system. Niche operators around the world are currently starting to experiment with forms of APT in urban environments. In these experiments visions and shared expectations are believed to play a pivotal role. However, such visions are not easily communicated to the local public, and experimenting can evoke and amplify different views. This study applies a novel combination of social representation theory and multi-level perspective (MLP) to explore the local social understandings of APT in an incumbent-led experiment in a Norwegian municipality. Based on a qualitative analysis, the study identifies three emerging social representations of the APT technology, where two oppose the niche vision. A general lack of information about the purpose and mission of the pilot evoked ambivalent and critical representations, drawing on pre-existing images and metaphors from a landscape level. We argue that social representations of technologies can help explain the complexity of the socially embedded reactions that emerge when niche experimentation takes place. We also discuss how such reactions may influence socio-technical transition processes.publishedVersio
Protecting Child Health From Air Pollution in India
Full text linkExposure to criteria pollutants such as fine particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) results in various health issues, encompassing morbidity and mortality related to cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, and many other ailments [1,2]. Children under five years of age (U5) are among the most vulnerable groups being impacted by exposure to air pollution due to their developing bodies and immature immune systems [3,4]. In India, the longstanding challenge of poor air quality has had alarming impacts on the health of children [3,5,6]. Despite the implementation of multiple policies intended to mitigate air pollutant emissions, the country grapples with persistently high levels of air pollution. Over the past two decades, i.e., between 2000 and 2018, the population-weighted exposure to ambient PM2.5 in India has risen significantly, after which it seems to show a sign of stabilization [7]. This pattern sharply contrasts with the global pattern of improving air quality [8]. Concurrently, NO2 exposure within India surged by 17% during this timeframe, in contrast to the 10% global decrease. These decreasing global trends are largely attributed to successful policy implementations in the global West and East Asia, contributing to improvements in global air qualitypublishedVersio
The Burning Issues of Punjab: Exploring the Different Futures on Offer when Managing Residue in Punjab’s Rice-Wheat Cropping System
Full text linkThe annual rotation from rice to wheat across Punjab leaves millions of tons of straw residue. The preferred method for handling residue has been incineration. This contributes to the winter smog that covers the mega-city of New Delhi. In 2019, the Supreme Court deemed stubble burning illegal. This brought forth alternative means to handle residue.
This thesis is based on fieldwork conducted in Punjab and uses a Science and Technology Studies (STS) lens to explore how the ways of handling residue affect the local and global environment and how more-than-human actors are excluded or included, depending on how performing actors frame and understand the problems and solutions. Farmers that burn residue do this due to time constraints and to avoid fungal outbreaks. The fungus is a friend if the farmers use the in-situ methods where residue is decomposed in the soil that strengthens. The ex-situ methods, which handle the residue outside of the field, make the residue into a monetized resource that can be utilized to produce renewable energy. This method increases the extraction of the soil's resources and amplifies many of the existing agricultural problems in Punjab.
This thesis argues for a more inclusive future with a recognition of our co-species and asks humans to look beyond their initial issue when solving problems in the Anthropocene.publishedVersio
Recent reductions in aerosol emissions have increased Earth’s energy imbalance
Full text linkThe Earth’s energy imbalance is the net radiative flux at the top-of-atmosphere. Climate model simulations suggest that the observed positive imbalance trend in the previous two decades is inconsistent with internal variability alone and caused by anthropogenic forcing and the resulting climate system response. Here, we investigate anthropogenic contributions to the imbalance trend using climate models forced with observed sea-surface temperatures. We find that the effective radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosol emission reductions has led to a 0.2 ± 0.1 W m−2 decade−1 strengthening of the 2001–2019 imbalance trend. The multi-model ensemble reproduces the observed imbalance trend of 0.47 ± 0.17 W m−2 decade−1 but with 10-40% underestimation. With most future scenarios showing further rapid reductions of aerosol emissions due to air quality legislation, such emission reductions may continue to strengthen Earth’s energy imbalance, on top of the greenhouse gas contribution. Consequently, we may expect an accelerated surface temperature warming in this decade.publishedVersio