CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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1083 research outputs found
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Varieties of approaches to constructing physical climate storylines: A review
Get PDFThe physical climate storyline (PCS) approach is increasingly recognized by the physical climate research community as a tool to produce and communicate decision-relevant climate risk information. While PCS is generally understood as a single concept, different varieties of the approach are applied according to the aims and purposes of the PCS and the scientists that build them. To unpack this diversity of detail, this article gives an overview of key practices and assumptions of the PCS approach as developed by physical climate scientists, as well as their ties to similar approaches developed by the broader climate risk and adaptation research community. We first examine varieties of PCSs according to the length of the causal chain they explore, and the type of evidence used. We then describe how they incorporate counterfactual elements and the temporal perspective. Finally, we examine how value judgments are implicitly or explicitly included in the aims and construction of PCSs. We conclude the discussion by suggesting that the PCS approach can further mature in the way it incorporates the narrative element, in the way it incorporates value judgments, and in the way that the evidence chosen to build PCSs constrains what is considered plausible.publishedVersio
Towards Sustainable Transport Practices in a Coastal Community in Norway: Insights from Human Needs and Social Practice Approaches
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Climate change adaptation based on computable general equilibrium models – a systematic review
Get PDFPurpose This study aims to identify the current state of the art and the gaps in the application of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models on studying climate change adaptation. Design/methodology/approach A systematic review is conducted to select, classify and analyze relevant studies from two databases of Web of Science and Scopus. Findings Totally, 170 articles based on selected keywords were found from both databases, where 56 articles were duplicates. The authors further excluded 17 articles owing to preliminary exclusion criteria. Hence, 97 papers were selected for full-text review and more detailed assessment. Only a few of the studies explicitly have addressed the role of autonomous adaptation embodied in the CGE models. Over one-third of the studies have focused on planned adaptation without explicitly mentioning autonomous adaptation. Agriculture was the most addressed sector, and country-level models are the most adopted. Only one article has focused on South America. Research limitations/implications The review suggests that autonomous adaptation embodied in CGE models was not well addressed in the literature. As the limited studies have shown that autonomous adaptation can dramatically mitigate direct climate change impacts, further studies are needed to examine the importance of the autonomous adaptation for better understanding of climate change impacts. Furthermore, CGE models can provide a joint assessment considering both mitigation and adaptation strategies and management measures as such models have also been widely used to address effects of mitigation measures in the literature. Originality/value The studies on climate change adaptation based on CGE models have been systematically reviewed, and state-of-the-art knowledge and research gaps have been identified.Climate change adaptation based on computable general equilibrium models – a systematic reviewpublishedVersio
Sustainable sharing in local communities: exploring the role of social capital
Get PDFThere are many forms of sharing occurring in local communities that can help reduce overconsumption and mitigate the continuous growth of climate emissions. Lately, traditional forms of local sharing have been supplemented with internet-based peer-to-peer sharing applications. This paper applies a social capital perspective to explore the relational basis for different forms of sharing in local communities, and to inform a discussion on how local sharing can be scaled up. Based on a survey of citizens in four municipalities in Norway, four key forms of sharing are explored including p2p-sharing, sharing schemes organised in the community, sharing of time through voluntary work, and informal sharing among friends, family and neighbours. Results indicate that bridging social capital is particularly important for all sharing activities, and that time-sharing is most strongly sustained by social capital. In addition to social capital dimensions, environmental motives also contribute to people’s engagement in face-to-face local sharing. p2p-sharing, however, is to a much lesser degree related to social capital and environmental motives.publishedVersio
Changes in design precipitation over the Nordic-Baltic region as given by convection-permitting climate simulations
Get PDFThe increased risk of flooding due to global warming and subsequent heavy rainfall events in the Nordic-Baltic region, call for recommendations directed at long-term planning. One example of such recommendations are climate change allowances. These are often based on expected changes in design precipitation as given by climate model simulations, and are used as a buffer on top of current design values to avoid a future increased damage potential as a consequence of climate change. We here compute expected changes in precipitation design values, so-called climate factors (CFs), for the Nordic-Baltic region, based on 3 km convection permitting simulations from the Nordic Convection Permitting Climate Projections project. These have the advantage of explicitly resolving convection, which has been shown to be the main contributor to increased rainfall. We assess the dependence of the CFs on rainfall duration, return period, and geographical location, focusing on the summer (convective) season, short durations and the high emission scenario RCP8.5. We also compare these CFs to those computed from a non-convection permitting regional climate model ensemble. We found higher CFs for the longer return period, with only few exceptions, and distinctly higher CFs going from daily to sub-daily durations. However, the different simulations give conflicting results for very short-duration rainfall (<3 h). The huge difference in the climate sensitivity of driving GCMs dominates the magnitude of estimated return levels. Our analysis is shaped by the high computational costs of running convection permitting models, resulting in a very limited ensemble (3 members) representing a single emission scenario (RCP8.5). Therefore, we believe that combining results from convection permitting simulations with a larger ensemble (21 members) of non-convection permitting simulations adds value to the assessment of robust climate change allowances for heavy precipitation in the Nordic-Baltic region.publishedVersio
Atmospheric concentrations of black carbon are substantially higher in spring than summer in the Arctic
Get PDFA key driving factor behind rapid Arctic climate change is black carbon, the atmospheric aerosol that most efficiently absorbs sunlight. Our knowledge about black carbon in the Arctic is scarce, mainly limited to long-term measurements of a few ground stations and snap-shots by aircraft observations. Here, we combine observations from aircraft campaigns performed over nine years, and present vertically resolved average black carbon properties. A factor of four higher black carbon mass concentration (21.6 ng m−3 average, 14.3 ng m−3 median) was found in spring, compared to summer (4.7 ng m−3 average, 3.9 ng m−3 median). In spring, much higher inter-annual and geographic variability prevailed compared to the stable situation in summer. The shape of the black carbon size distributions remained constant between seasons with an average mass mean diameter of 202 nm in spring and 210 nm in summer. Comparison between observations and concentrations simulated by a global model shows notable discrepancies, highlighting the need for further model developments and intensified measurements.publishedVersio
‘I prefer to own what I use’: Exploring the role of emotions in upscaling collaborative consumption through libraries in Norway
Get PDFThe generalisation of collaborative consumption as a practice embedded in everyday practices such as cooking, cleaning, repairing, commuting, and exercising can reduce material and resource use, but has not yet achieved its full potential in Western societies. This article contributes to an emerging literature focusing on emotions as an integral part of practices and investigates how they might promote or hamper the scaling up collaborative consumption. The study draws on quantitative and qualitative data to, first, describe the emotions associated with sharing and their relationship with other bundled practices and, second, explore the potential of upscaling collaborative consumption through libraries, institutions with long traditions in organised sharing. Through the case study of sports equipment and a municipal library in Norway, we find that interventions that encourage positive emotions such as excitement and reward and that reduce the need to regulate negative emotions associated with sharing can recruit practitioners to collaborative consumption. Explicit and long-term engagement by libraries in the lending of culturally meaningful equipment such as skis in Norway can potentially reduce the need for regulating the embarrassment and discomfort associated with not owning them.publishedVersio
A global review of the state of the evidence of household air pollution's contribution to ambient fine particulate matter and their related health impacts
Get PDFDirect exposure to household fine particulate air pollution (HAP) associated with inefficient combustion of fuels (wood, charcoal, coal, crop residues, kerosene, etc.) for cooking, space-heating, and lighting is estimated to result in 2.3 (1.6–3.1) million premature yearly deaths globally. HAP emitted indoors escapes outdoors and is a leading source of outdoor ambient fine particulate air pollution (AAP) in low- and middle-income countries, often being a larger contributor than well-recognized sources including road transport, industry, coal-fired power plants, brick kilns, and construction dust. We review published scientific studies that model the contribution of HAP to AAP at global and major sub-regional scales. We describe strengths and limitations of the current state of knowledge on HAP’s contribution to AAP and the related impact on public health and provide recommendations to improve these estimates. We find that HAP is a dominant source of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) globally — regardless of variations in model types, configurations, and emission inventories used — that contributes approximately 20 % of total global PM2.5 exposure. There are large regional variations: in South Asia, HAP contributes ∼ 30 % of ambient PM2.5, while in high-income North America the fraction is ∼ 7 %. The median estimate indicates that the household contribution to ambient air pollution results in a substantial premature mortality burden globally of about 0.77(0.54–1) million excess deaths, in addition to the 2.3 (1.6–3.1) million deaths from direct HAP exposure. Coordinated global action is required to avert this burden.publishedVersio
Assessment of short-term heat effects on cardiovascular mortality and vulnerability factors using small area data in Europe
Get PDFShort-term associations between heat and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality have been examined mostly in large cities. However, different vulnerability and exposure levels may contribute to spatial heterogeneity. This study assessed heat effects on CVD mortality and potential vulnerability factors using data from three European countries, including urban and rural settings.publishedVersio
What is a heat(wave)? An interdisciplinary perspective
Get PDFExcessive summer heat is becoming people’s daily reality creating an urgency to understand heatwaves and their consequences better. This article suggests an interdisciplinary analytical framework of heat(waves) as multiple objects. It brings together data and perspectives from social anthropology, sociology, climate science, epidemiology, and meteorology to map the gaps in knowledge about heat(waves) and their impacts on one of the most vulnerable groups: older adults. Based on research in Poland and Spain, we look at heat(waves) as simultaneously individual experiences, biophysical changes, and socio-political phenomena. Climatologists and meteorologists define heat(waves) as prolonged episodes of abnormally high temperatures. Epidemiologists perceive heat(waves) through raising morbidity and mortality rates. For policymakers, they are an emergency defined by duration and temperature thresholds. Older adults living in Warsaw and Madrid recognize a heat(wave) when they feel it in their bodies, when they cannot sleep, or when they need to change their daily routines. Such differently situated scientific definitions and embodied knowledge stem not only from varied epistemological perspectives but demonstrate that heat(waves) are ontologically different. By looking at convergences and divergences between these perspectives, we see that the length of heat(waves) varies and that older adults often experience longer periods of excessive heat than climate measurements or policy alerts indicate; that the impact of nighttime temperatures is more important than daily temperatures; and that there is a discrepancy between heat(waves) as anomalies and as increasingly common events. The article addresses an important gap between biophysical definitions of heatwaves and the experiences of the most vulnerable groups.publishedVersio