CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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Strømkunders oppfatninger om ny nettleiemodell: rettferdighet og fleksibilitet
Get PDFRapporten oppsummerer funn fra kvalitative undersøkelser knyttet til kunders oppfatninger om ny nettleiemodell for strøm i Norge. Samlet viser resultatene at mange av kundene har en viss grad av bekymring for at den nye nettleien kan få uheldige og urettferdige fordelingsvirkninger. Kundene tar hensyn til faktorer (f.eks. husholdningssammensetning) som ligger utenfor nettselskapenes nåværende mandat å inkludere i tariffberegninger. Kundenes uttrykte bekymringer taler for gradvise endringer i nettariffer framover, framfor omfattende endringer som vil kunne gi store utslag som mange vil oppfatte som urimelige.publishedVersio
Estimating vanishing allowable emissions for 1.5 °C
Get PDFThe remaining carbon budget for 1.5 °C has been a highly discussed tool to communicate the urgency of efforts needed to meet the Paris Agreement. Now, research reassesses IPCC estimates, suggesting that ongoing near-flat emissions and methodological choices can make big relative differences to the tiny remaining 1.5 °C budget.acceptedVersio
Much of zero emissions commitment occurs before reaching net zero emissions
Get PDFWe explore the response of the Earth’s coupled climate and carbon system to an idealized sequential addition and removal of CO2 to the atmosphere, following a symmetric and continuous emissions pathway, in contrast to the discontinuous emissions pathways that have largely informed our understanding of the climate response to net zero and net negative emissions to date. We find, using both an Earth system model and an ensemble of simple climate model realizations, that warming during the emissions reduction and negative emissions phases is defined by a combination of a proportionality of warming to cumulative emissions characterized by the transient climate response to emissions (TCRE), and a deviation from that proportionality that is governed by the zero emissions commitment (ZEC). About half of the ZEC is realized before reaching zero emissions, and the ZEC thus also controls the timing between peak cumulative CO2 emissions and peak temperature, such that peak temperature may occur before peak cumulative emissions if ZEC is negative, underscoring the importance of ZEC in climate policies aimed to limit peak warming. Thus we argue that ZEC is better defined as the committed warming relative to the expected TCRE proportionality, rather than as the additional committed warming that will occur after reaching net zero CO2 emissions. Once established, the combined TCRE and ZEC relationship holds almost to complete removal of prior cumulative CO2 emissions. As cumulative CO2 emissions approach zero through negative CO2 emissions, CO2 concentrations drop below preindustrial values, while residual long-term climate change continues, governed by multicentennial dynamical processes.publishedVersio
Climate action post-Paris: how can the IPCC stay relevant?
Get PDFThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been a crucial facilitator of climate change research and governance. After its sixth assessment cycle, the organization is at a critical juncture. The amount of climate science has grown tremendously over the past three decades, but so has global emissions of greenhouse gases. If the world is to reach the objectives implied by the Paris Agreement, climate action must accelerate on an unprecedented scale and pace, across widely differing contexts. Scientific knowledge will play a key role in this endeavour. Everyone who produces or relies on climate knowledge needs to wrestle with this pivotal question: How can IPCC processes and outcomes be reformed to produce knowledge that is more relevant for climate action? The organizational and resource constraints of the IPCC must be considered when searching for answers. This is an introduction to a special collection of research articles, reviews and perspectives dealing with this question from many different angles. In this introduction, we present four possible reform agendas for the IPCC in the form of ideal types, all with their advantages and disadvantages. This introduction does not advocate a certain set of reforms but rather attempts to spur discussions and reflections on the IPCC and its future.Climate action post-Paris: how can the IPCC stay relevant?publishedVersio
Virkemiddelvurderinger i utslippsframskrivinger
Get PDFCICERO Senter for klimaforskning har på oppdrag fra Teknisk beregningsutvalg for
klima gjennomført en kartlegging av metoder for utslippsframskrivinger i andre land.
Formålet med kartleggingen er å få innsikt i ulike metoder og modellapparater for
utslippsframskrivinger og ulike måter å organisere arbeidet på. Arbeidet har særlig
fokusert på hvordan ulike land håndterer virkemiddelvurderinger i utslippframskrivinger.
Arbeidet har vært gjennomført av Sofie Skjeflo og Nora Ytreberg i perioden
november 2022 til februar 2023. Prosjektleder har vært Sofie Skjeflo og rapporten er
kvalitetssikret av Frode Longva.publishedVersio
Investigating the representation of heatwaves from an ensemble of km-scale regional climate simulations within CORDEX-FPS convection
Get PDFHeatwaves (HWs) are high-impact phenomena stressing both societies and ecosystems. Their intensity and frequency are expected to increase in a warmer climate over many regions of the world. While these impacts can be wide-ranging, they are potentially influenced by local to regional features such as topography, land cover, and urbanization. Here, we leverage recent advances in the very high-resolution modelling required to elucidate the impacts of heatwaves at these fine scales. Further, we aim to understand how the new generation of km-scale regional climate models (RCMs) modulates the representation of heatwaves over a well-known climate change hot spot. We analyze an ensemble of 15 convection-permitting regional climate model (CPRCM, ~ 2–4 km grid spacing) simulations and their driving, convection-parameterized regional climate model (RCM, ~ 12–15 km grid spacing) simulations from the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study on Convection. The focus is on the evaluation experiments (2000–2009) and three subdomains with a range of climatic characteristics. During HWs, and generally in the summer season, CPRCMs exhibit warmer and drier conditions than their driving RCMs. Higher maximum temperatures arise due to an altered heat flux partitioning, with daily peaks up to ~ 150 W/m2 larger latent heat in RCMs compared to the CPRCMs. This is driven by a 5–25% lower soil moisture content in the CPRCMs, which is in turn related to longer dry spell length (up to double). It is challenging to ascertain whether these differences represent an improvement. However, a point-scale distribution-based maximum temperature evaluation, suggests that this CPRCMs warmer/drier tendency is likely more realistic compared to the RCMs, with ~ 70% of reference sites indicating an added value compared to the driving RCMs, increasing to 95% when only the distribution right tail is considered. Conversely, a CPRCMs slight detrimental effect is found according to the upscaled grid-to-grid approach over flat areas. Certainly, CPRCMs enhance dry conditions, with knock-on implications for summer season temperature overestimation. Whether this improved physical representation of HWs also has implications for future changes is under investigation.Investigating the representation of heatwaves from an ensemble of km-scale regional climate simulations within CORDEX-FPS convectionpublishedVersio
Intermediating climate change: the evolving strategies, interactions and impacts of neglected “climate intermediaries”
Get PDFClimate change governance systems comprise a wide variety of actors. Here, we introduce “climate intermediaries” as one potentially influential yet often neglected type of actor, behaving as “go-betweens” that connect different types of actors and/or governance levels. This Special Issue analyses two under-researched forms of climate intermediaries: those that exist for reasons unconnected to climate change, and new or uncommon forms of climate intermediaries that have yet to be examined. In this Introduction article, we present the conceptual framework employed within our Special Issue. We begin by problematizing the definition of intermediaries within climate research before clarifying our own relational understanding of “climate intermediaries”. A climate intermediary is thus a role, assumed by any type of actor, while potentially assuming other roles when interacting with other actors. Second, we summarize the existing research on the strategies of intermediaries, the interactions that may exist between them, and the impacts of these actors on the climate policy process. These three foci then guide our three research questions for the Special Issue. Third, we examine existing research on myriad types of intermediaries, such as interest groups, faith-based actors, and funding bodies. Finally, we provide an overview of the contributions included within the issue.publishedVersio
Quantification of hydraulic trait control on plant hydrodynamics and risk of hydraulic failure within a demographic structured vegetation model in a tropical forest (FATES-HYDRO V1.0)
Get PDFVegetation plays a key role in the global carbon cycle and thus is an important component within Earth system models (ESMs) that project future climate. Many ESMs are adopting methods to resolve plant size and ecosystem disturbance history, using vegetation demographic models. These models make it feasible to conduct more realistic simulation of processes that control vegetation dynamics. Meanwhile, increasing understanding of the processes governing plant water use, and ecosystem responses to drought in particular, has led to the adoption of dynamic plant water transport (i.e., hydrodynamic) schemes within ESMs. However, the extent to which variations in plant hydraulic traits affect both plant water stress and the risk of mortality in trait-diverse tropical forests is understudied. In this study, we report on a sensitivity analysis of an existing hydrodynamic scheme (HYDRO) model that is updated and incorporated into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) (FATES–HYDRO V1.0). The size- and canopy-structured representation within FATES is able to simulate how plant size and hydraulic traits affect vegetation dynamics and carbon–water fluxes. To better understand this new model system, and its functionality in tropical forest systems in particular, we conducted a global parameter sensitivity analysis at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We assembled 942 observations of plant hydraulic traits on 306 tropical plant species for stomata, leaves, stems, and roots and determined the best-fit statistical distribution for each trait, which was used in model parameter sampling to assess the parametric sensitivity. We showed that, for simulated leaf water potential and loss of hydraulic conductivity across different plant organs, the four most important traits were associated with xylem conduit taper (buffers increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height), stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential, maximum stem hydraulic conductivity, and the partitioning of total hydraulic resistance above vs. belowground. Our analysis of individual ensemble members revealed that trees at a high risk of hydraulic failure and potential tree mortality generally have a lower conduit taper, lower maximum xylem conductivity, lower stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential, and lower resistance to xylem embolism for stem and transporting roots. We expect that our results will provide guidance on future modeling studies using plant hydrodynamic models to predict the forest responses to droughts and future field campaigns that aim to better parameterize plant hydrodynamic models.publishedVersio
Household Energy Practices in Low-Energy Buildings: A Qualitative Study of Klosterenga Ecological Housing Cooperative
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National contributions to climate change due to historical emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide since 1850
Get PDFAnthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) have made significant contributions to global warming since the pre-industrial period and are therefore targeted in international climate policy. There is substantial interest in tracking and apportioning national contributions to climate change and informing equitable commitments to decarbonisation. Here, we introduce a new dataset of national contributions to global warming caused by historical emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide during the years 1851–2021, which are consistent with the latest findings of the IPCC. We calculate the global mean surface temperature response to historical emissions of the three gases, including recent refinements which account for the short atmospheric lifetime of CH4. We report national contributions to global warming resulting from emissions of each gas, including a disaggregation to fossil and land use sectors. This dataset will be updated annually as national emissions datasets are updated.publishedVersio