CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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Environmental and nutritional assessment of young children's diets in Norway: comparing the current diet with national dietary guidelines and the EAT-Lancet reference diet
Get PDFPurpose
Introducing healthy and sustainable diets early in life can promote lifelong healthy dietary patterns with a low environmental impact. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the environmental and nutritional consequences of a dietary change for 2-year-old children in Norway towards healthier dietary patterns.
Methods
Environmental impacts of the current habitual diet among 2-year-olds (n = 1413) were estimated for six impact categories and compared with scenario diets based on the Norwegian food-based dietary guidelines (FBDG) and the EAT-Lancet Commission reference diet. Last, we evaluated the nutritional adequacy of the diets against the Norwegian nutrition recommendations for children aged 2–5 years. The current diet was assessed by an FFQ.
Results
Environmental impacts of the current habitual diet were up to two times higher than those of the scenario diets. Compared with the current diet, impacts from the FBDG scenario diet were reduced by 35% for water use and 18% for terrestrial acidification, whereas impacts from the EAT-Lancet scenario diet were reduced by 51% for water use, 57% for terrestrial acidification, 36% for global warming potential and 27% for freshwater eutrophication. Milk and dairy products were the main contributors to environmental impacts in both the current diet and the FBDG scenario diet. The scenario diets were nutritionally adequate and improved the dietary quality among Norwegian 2-year-olds.
Conclusion
Compared to current diets among young children, more plant-based dietary patterns in line with national FBDG or the EAT-Lancet Commission reference diet can improve the nutritional adequacy of diets and simultaneously reduce environmental impacts.publishedVersio
The Representation of Sea Salt Aerosols and Their Role in Polar Climate Within CMIP6
Get PDFNatural aerosols and their interactions with clouds remain an important uncertainty within climate models, especially at the poles. Here, we study the behavior of sea salt aerosols (SSaer) in the Arctic and Antarctic within 12 climate models from CMIP6. We investigate the driving factors that control SSaer abundances and show large differences based on the choice of the source function, and the representation of aerosol processes in the atmosphere. Close to the poles, the CMIP6 models do not match observed seasonal cycles of surface concentrations, likely due to the absence of wintertime SSaer sources such as blowing snow. Further away from the poles, simulated concentrations have the correct seasonality, but have a positive mean bias of up to one order of magnitude. SSaer optical depth is derived from the MODIS data and compared to modeled values, revealing good agreement, except for winter months. Better agreement for aerosol optical depth than surface concentration may indicate a need for improving the vertical distribution, the size distribution and/or hygroscopicity of modeled polar SSaer. Source functions used in CMIP6 emit very different numbers of small SSaer, potentially exacerbating cloud-aerosol interaction uncertainties in these remote regions. For future climate scenarios SSP126 and SSP585, we show that SSaer concentrations increase at both poles at the end of the 21st century, with more than two times mid-20th century values in the Arctic. The pre-industrial climate CMIP6 experiments suggest there is a large uncertainty in the polar radiative budget due to SSaerpublishedVersio
Environmental and nutritional assessment of young children’s diets in Norway: comparing the current diet with national dietary guidelines and the EAT-Lancet reference diet
Get PDFPurpose
Introducing healthy and sustainable diets early in life can promote lifelong healthy dietary patterns with a low environmental impact. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the environmental and nutritional consequences of a dietary change for 2-year-old children in Norway towards healthier dietary patterns.
Methods
Environmental impacts of the current habitual diet among 2-year-olds (n = 1413) were estimated for six impact categories and compared with scenario diets based on the Norwegian food-based dietary guidelines (FBDG) and the EAT-Lancet Commission reference diet. Last, we evaluated the nutritional adequacy of the diets against the Norwegian nutrition recommendations for children aged 2–5 years. The current diet was assessed by an FFQ.
Results
Environmental impacts of the current habitual diet were up to two times higher than those of the scenario diets. Compared with the current diet, impacts from the FBDG scenario diet were reduced by 35% for water use and 18% for terrestrial acidification, whereas impacts from the EAT-Lancet scenario diet were reduced by 51% for water use, 57% for terrestrial acidification, 36% for global warming potential and 27% for freshwater eutrophication. Milk and dairy products were the main contributors to environmental impacts in both the current diet and the FBDG scenario diet. The scenario diets were nutritionally adequate and improved the dietary quality among Norwegian 2-year-olds.
Conclusion
Compared to current diets among young children, more plant-based dietary patterns in line with national FBDG or the EAT-Lancet Commission reference diet can improve the nutritional adequacy of diets and simultaneously reduce environmental impacts.publishedVersio
Forbrukerfleksibilitet: Et kunnskapsgrunnlag for å forstå husholdningers oppfatninger og muligheter
Get PDFI Norge ble en ny modell for beregning av nettleie innført 1. juli 2022. Formålet med den nye nettleien er å motivere husholdninger til å fordele strømforbruket jevnere utover døgnet. På tidspunktet hvor den nye nettleien ble planlagt innført var det liten kunnskap om virkninger av slike virkemidler på forbrukere. Flexeffect-prosjektet startet har undersøkt virkninger virkemidler for fleksibel strømbruk på forskjellige husholdningsgrupper.
Resultatene viser at mange av forbrukerne forstår og er enige med formålet for ny nettleie. Samtidig gjør utformingen det vanskelig å forstå og tilpasse seg i hverdagslivet og det er konkurrerende signaler og hensyn de må ta. Videre har mange uttrykt bekymring for at den nye nettleien kan få uheldige og urettferdige fordelingsvirkninger. Våre funn viser også at det er krevende for forbrukere å ta i bruk ny teknologi for å øke forbrukerfleksibiliteten. Selv om forbrukerhensyn er nevnt i den politiske prosessen for å innføre ny nettleie er forbrukerne svakt representert i utformingen og forbrukerhensynene som inngår i konsultasjonene har en tendens til å være generelle. Dimensjoner som systembehov er blitt mer vektlagt enn forbrukerbehov og ikke minst forbrukeres evne til tilpasning.publishedVersio
A “greenhouse gas balance” for aviation in line with the Paris Agreement
Get PDFThe effects of aviation on climate pose unique policy challenges. A large fraction of the CO2 emissions (65%) is international and not (explicitly) included in the Paris Agreement. The interpretation of Article 4.1 on achieving a “balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases” is ambiguous in the context of aviation because of the substantial non-CO2 effects associated with the sector. For the achievement of the temperature goal in Article 2, both CO2 and non-CO2 effects are important. The non-CO2 effects contribute 66% of the sectoral total climate effect (in terms of Effective Radiative Forcing; ERF) at present, with significant uncertainties. The largest of these non-CO2 effects, contrail-cirrus and the net-effect of NOx, are not caused by direct greenhouse gas emissions, representing another ambiguity as to whether they should be included in the balance concept. We discuss the role of aviation in the context of the Paris Agreement, and present illustrative calculations of a hypothetical aviation “greenhouse gas balance.” Several questions are addressed: Which components should be included? If an aggregate of components is adopted for the “balance,” which metric should be used? How can the large differences in timescales as well as the large intrinsic underlying ERF uncertainties be handled? We demonstrate that these choices result in very different requirements for CO2-removal from the atmosphere and different temperature outcomes over time. The article provides policymakers with an overview of issues and choices that are important regarding which approach is most appropriate for defining and achieving a greenhouse gas balance for aviation in the context of the Paris Agreement.publishedVersio
Natural short-lived halogens exert an indirect cooling effect on climate
No full textObservational evidence shows the ubiquitous presence of ocean-emitted short-lived halogens in the global atmosphere1,2,3. Natural emissions of these chemical compounds have been anthropogenically amplified since pre-industrial times4,5,6, while, in addition, anthropogenic short-lived halocarbons are currently being emitted to the atmosphere7,8. Despite their widespread distribution in the atmosphere, the combined impact of these species on Earth’s radiative balance remains unknown. Here we show that short-lived halogens exert a substantial indirect cooling effect at present (−0.13 ± 0.03 watts per square metre) that arises from halogen-mediated radiative perturbations of ozone (−0.24 ± 0.02 watts per square metre), compensated by those from methane (+0.09 ± 0.01 watts per square metre), aerosols (+0.03 ± 0.01 watts per square metre) and stratospheric water vapour (+0.011 ± 0.001 watts per square metre). Importantly, this substantial cooling effect has increased since 1750 by −0.05 ± 0.03 watts per square metre (61 per cent), driven by the anthropogenic amplification of natural halogen emissions, and is projected to change further (18–31 per cent by 2100) depending on climate warming projections and socioeconomic development. We conclude that the indirect radiative effect due to short-lived halogens should now be incorporated into climate models to provide a more realistic natural baseline of Earth’s climate system.publishedVersio
Mortality Attributable to Ambient Air Pollution: A Review of Global Estimates
Get PDFSince the publication of the first epidemiological study to establish the connection between long-term exposure to atmospheric pollution and effects on human health, major efforts have been dedicated to estimate the attributable mortality burden, especially in the context of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD). In this work, we review the estimates of excess mortality attributable to outdoor air pollution at the global scale, by comparing studies available in the literature. We find large differences between the estimates, which are related to the exposure response functions as well as the number of health outcomes included in the calculations, aspects where further improvements are necessary. Furthermore, we show that despite the considerable advancements in our understanding of health impacts of air pollution and the consequent improvement in the accuracy of the global estimates, their precision has not increased in the last decades. We offer recommendations for future measurements and research directions, which will help to improve our understanding and quantification of air pollution-health relationships.publishedVersio
Can shared autonomous vehicles become a sustainable mode of mobility in the future? Insights from a practice-based study of urban dwellers in Norway
Get PDFShared autonomous vehicles (SAVs) represent a rapidly growing technological field with features believed to potentially support the development of more sustainable mobility systems in city regions. To succeed as a sustainable mode of mobility, however, many current car owners must replace their private vehicles with SAVs. Based on a survey of citizens in Oslo and 12 other Norwegian cities, as well as in-depth interviews with citizens living in a location where SAV is tested, this study explores the relationships between people’s everyday mobility patterns and their future interest in using SAVs. The study located six different mobility practices and found a positive interest in the use of SAVs among people who adhere to a shared mobility type of practice, while the resistance was strongest among people who adhere to different car-based mobility practices. Also, those whose current mobility practice involves the use of electric cars had little interest in replacing their cars with SAVs. The study points to some paradoxes and challenges that are critical to handle if an upscaling of SAVs is to be part of a future sustainable mobility mode.publishedVersio
Impact of heat on all-cause and cause-specific mortality: A multi-city study in Texas
Get PDFStudies on the health effects of heat are particularly limited in Texas, a U.S. state in the top 10 highest number of annual heat-related deaths per capita from 2018 to 2020. This study assessed the effects of heat on all-cause and cause-specific mortality in 12 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) across Texas from 1990 to 2011.submittedVersio
Optimal asset allocation for commodity sovereign wealth funds
Get PDFThis paper studies the dynamic asset allocation problem faced by an infinitively lived commodity-based sovereign wealth fund under incomplete markets. Assuming that the fund receives a non-tradable stream of commodity revenues until a predetermined date, the optimal consumption and investment strategies are state and time-dependent. Using data from the Norwegian Petroleum Fund, we find that the optimal demand for equity should decrease gradually from 60% to 40% over the next 60 years. However, the solution is particularly sensitive to the correlation between oil and stock price changes. We also estimate wealth-equivalent welfare losses, relative to the optimal rule, when following alternative suboptimal investment rules.publishedVersio