BI Open (Norwegian Business School)
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Outsmarting Time: Foundation Models for Zero-Shot Forecasting
Get PDFMasteroppgave(MSc) in Master of Science in Business Analytics, Handelshøyskolen BI, 2024This thesis evaluates the performance of three foundation models – Chronos, TimeGPT and Moirai – in the context of the M3-Competition. The models are based on the Transformer architecture, a wildly successful architecture in the field of Artificial Intelligence for both Large Language Models and Computer Vision. We evaluate the foundation models in zero-shot forecasting, as the models are not fitted to the data before inference, against the original competitors in the competition.
Our evaluation shows promise for using foundation models for time series forecasting. Overall, Chronos outperforms the two other foundation models and places fifth in our ranking of the 23 models for all data. The foundation models display better results for monthly data than the other time frequencies in the dataset, with Chronos being the top performer of all evaluated models for this subset. Our findings suggest that foundation models can be a viable approach to forecasting, and we recommend considering Chronos as the preferred model for forecasting monthly data
Green Mutual Funds: Investigating the Impact of Carbon Emissions Performance on Financial Returns
Get PDFMasteroppgave(MSc) in Master of Science in Sustainable Finance, Handelshøyskolen BI, 2024This paper explores the relationship between carbon emissions performance and financial returns of green mutual funds by analyzing data from 90 green1 mutual funds from September 2018 to December 2023. Our study controls for common fund characteristics such as age, fees, size, sustainability rating, active share, and historical risk-adjusted performance. Our findings reveal that carbon emission performance, as measured by Morningstar’s Carbon Risk Score, does not significantly impact the financial performance of green mutual funds. This outcome may stem from the market already factoring in the associated carbon risks, or investors relying on alternative metrics beyond the Carbon Risk Score to assess fund performance
Når robotene tar over regnskapet
Get PDFBacheloroppgave i Økonomi og administrasjon fra Handelshøyskolen BI, 2024I denne studien undersøker vi implementeringen av Robotic Process Automation (RPA) i Domstolenes regnskaps- og lønnseksjon (DRL), ved bruk av Kotters åtte trinns modell for endringsledelse. DRL, en sentral enhet under Domstoladministrasjonen, håndterer økonomiske og lønnsrelaterte oppgaver for alle domstolene i Norge. I 2021 gjennomgikk DRL en reform for å sentralisere administrative funksjoner. Seksjonen har 50 ansatte, med et mål om å redusere dette til 40 gjennom økt effektivitet og automatisering. Ved å bruke en kvalitativ metode, inkludert dybdeintervjuer og analyse av sekundærdata, tilegnet vi oss en bredere forståelse for temaet.
Våre funn viser at DRL startet med å etablere en forståelse av nødvendigheten av endring på grunn av ineffektivitet og økt arbeidsmengde etter reformen. De dannet en koalisjon med bred kompetanse, støttet av eksterne RPA-eksperter fra Tietoevry. Deretter utviklet de en tydelig visjon og strategi for å skape en mer effektiv, digital arbeidsplass. Effektiv kommunikasjon var essensiell for å informere og engasjere alle ansatte. DRL identifiserte tekniske og organisatoriske barrierer, og brukte data for å demonstrere roboten sin effektivitet.
Resultatene viser at kortsiktige gevinster, som automatisering av enkle, repetitive oppgaver, var viktige for å opprettholde momentum og støtte for RPA. DRL planlegger å utvide RPA til flere områder og forbedrer prosessene basert på tilbakemeldinger fra ansatte. I tillegg fant vi ut at kontinuerlig måling av resultater, oppmuntring til tilbakemeldinger og feiring av suksesser var essensielt for å forankre de nye tilnærmingene i DRL.
Forskningen vår konkluderer med at en strukturert tilnærming som tar hensyn til både tekniske og menneskelige faktorer kan være nødvendig for vellykket RPA-implementering. Effektiv kommunikasjon, medarbeiderengasjement og kontinuerlig forbedring er nøkkelfaktorer for å oppnå varige endringer. DRL sin erfaring kan gi verdifulle innsikter for andre offentlige institusjoner som vurderer å implementere RPA. Som en del av konklusjonen har vi utarbeidet ti bud som vi mener er essensielle for en vellykket implementering av RPA. Basert på erfaringene fra DRL, kan budene gi praktiske råd og strategier for å overkomme vanlige utfordringer og maksimere fordelene ved RPA
Customer Experience (CX), Employee Experience (EX), and Human Experience (HX): Introductions, Interactions, and Interdisciplinary Implications
Get PDFThe purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of what (service) experience is and examine it using three distinct perspectives: customer experience (CX), employee experience (EX), and human experience (HX).acceptedVersio
Employee Status, Role Expectation and Performance Evaluation: Evidence from NBA Players
Get PDFThis paper shifts attention from how employee status affects work performance to the role of status in performance evaluation when rewards or penalties for performance are determined. While prior studies have shown that high status enables employees to perform well, we emphasize that it may also elevate role expectations, which then become hard to meet. Building on expectation confirmation theory, we argue especially that high-status employees may be less rewarded for their performance because high expectations of them have been established. Although low-status employees are less likely to perform well, they receive greater rewards on attaining success, suggesting a potential advantage to being disadvantaged ex ante. Moreover, while prior literature highlights various benefits of having prestigious peers, we maintain that the presence of high-status teammates also raises expectations of teamwork. As such, employees will be less rewarded for team performance when they work with high-status teammates. We test our hypotheses in a sample of NBA players and find general support. Our findings highlight employees’ status as a potential liability in performance evaluation.publishedVersio
Charged Choices - How influencer endorsement and time-limited offers shape credit card behavior
Get PDFMasteroppgave(MSc) in Master of Science in Strategic Marketing Management - Handelshøyskolen BI, 2024This master thesis investigates how influencer endorsements and time-limited
offers affect consumer credit payment behavior. With the rise of alternative
payment methods, credit cards have become a dominant choice, often leading to
overspending due to the psychological separation between purchase and payment,
known as the “pain of payment”.
The study addresses the gap in existing literature on the combined effects of
influencer marketing and time-limited offers on credit card usage. It focuses on
women in Norway, using a 2x2 factorial design to assess these variables’ impact.
The experiment involved 176 female respondents, divided into four groups, each
exposed to different conditions of influencer presence and time-limited offers.
Findings reveal that neither time-limited offers nor influencer presence alone
significantly increased the likelihood of making a purchase using credit.
Surprisingly, time-limited offers had a counterintuitive effect, where respondents
showed a lower purchase intention when presented with such offers. Additionally,
no significant interaction effect between influencer presence and time-limited
offers was found. However, a positive attitude towards credit payment options
was correlated with higher purchase intentions, and a positive perception of the
chosen influencer was associated with a more favorable attitude towards the
chosen brand.
The research enhances understanding of how modern marketing tactics influence
financial behavior, offering insights for academic study and practical strategies.
Limitations such as sample homogeneity and short-term focus are acknowledged,
with recommendations for future research to explore more diverse populations
and long-term effects. Given constraints like limited time and resources, this study
lays the groundwork for further exploration of the dynamics between influencer
marketing, time-limited offers, and consumer credit behavior
Dark knights: Exploring resilience and hidden workarounds in commercial aviation through mixed methods
Get PDFIn this study, the duality of adaptive capacity in aviation safety is examined, where the need for resilience of frontline workers conflicts with the expectations and assumptions of upstream entities, leading to system brittleness. We explore three critical categories: responsibilization, the application of practical wisdom in navigating challenging situations, and the unrecognized sacrifices that accompany adaptation. A qualitative research design is used, using three focus groups consisting of pilots in a European airline, the airline’s safety department, and the respective civil aviation authority. The study's findings reveal i. significant organizational constraint and pressure on pilots, resulting in workarounds, personal playbooks, and exhaustion, ii. a culture of apathy, cynicism, and secrecy, contributing to a disconnect between the idealized and practical aspects of work (work-as-imagined versus work-as-done), iii. an oversimplification of complex issues and attributing problems to individual factors rather than systemic factors, iv. normalizing the risk of saturation by pushing the boundaries of safe performance, and v. the current prescriptive training approach may increase risk by not accounting for adaptations that are necessary in the frontline work environment. Recognizing both the technical and social complexities of aviation, the study calls for a reimagined framework away from a prescriptive training approach, as it may increase risk by not accounting for adaptations that are necessary in the frontline work environment. In summary, the study presents a nuanced view of aviation as a complex system, where the push for adaptivity is challenged by ethical dilemmas and trade-offs. Left unresolved, this conflict may hinder aviation safety.publishedVersio
Extending the range of bugs that automated program repair can handle
Get PDFModern automated program repair (APR) is well-tuned to finding and repairing bugs that introduce observable erroneous behavior to a program. However, a significant class of bugs does not lead to observable behavior (e.g., termination bugs and non-functional bugs). Such bugs can generally not be handled with current APR approaches, so complementary techniques are needed. To stimulate the systematic study of alternative approaches and hybrid combinations, we devise a novel bug classification system that enables methodical analysis of their bug detection power and bug repair capabilities. To demonstrate the benefits, we study the repair of termination bugs in sequential and concurrent programs. Our analysis shows that integrating dynamic APR with formal analysis techniques, such as termination provers and software model checkers, reduces complexity and improves the overall reliability of these repairs. We empirically investigate how well the hybrid approach can repair termination and performance bugs by experimenting with hybrids that integrate different APR approaches with termination provers and execution time monitors. Our findings indicate that hybrid repair holds promise for handling termination and performance bugs. However, the capability of the chosen tools and the completeness of the available correctness specification affects the quality of the patches that can be produced.publishedVersio
Skattemessig tilhørighet og utfordringene som følger
Get PDFMasteroppgave(MSc) i Master of Science i Forretningsjus og økonomi - Handelshøyskolen BI, 2024I vår masteroppgave ønsker vi å undersøke det dagsaktuelle temaet som omhandler hvordan økningen i beskatning av eiendeler påvirker norske selskapers konkurranseevne på det norske og internasjonale markedet, spesielt i situasjoner der selskapene må utbetale betydelige utbytter til eierne for å dekke deres personlige skatt. Temaet har blitt gjennomgått tidligere av både masterstudenter innen jus, og økonomi, men ikke sammen. Med bakgrunn i vårt masterstudium forretningsjus og økonomi har vi muligheten til å belyse både de juridiske og økonomiske konsekvensene ved dagens skattepolitikk. Ved å trekke på innsikt fra tidligere juridiske masteroppgaver som omhandler vurderingsvilkåret “hjemmehørende”, samt økonomiske masteroppgaver som den nylig skrevet masteroppgaven av Balder Belsvik og Erlend Ramberg, kan vi sammenslå alle funnene til en oppgave for å gi et mer helhetlig bilde av norsk skattepolitikk og dens påvirkning på bedriftseiere i
Norge
An empirical study on the impact of carbon emissions on the implied cost of capital
Get PDFMasteroppgave(MSc) in Master of Science in Business, Sustainable Finance - Handelshøyskolen BI, 2024This study explores the impact of sustainable investment initiatives, particularly those addressing carbon emissions, on the implied cost of capital for European companies. Aligned with the European Green Deal, the research draws inspiration from Palmer (2023) and Bolton & Kacperczyk (2021) to investigate the relationship between a company's carbon emissions and its implied cost of capital.
The literature review highlights the complexity of integrating carbon data into asset pricing models, emphasizing challenges and insights from prior studies. The research focuses on the carbon risk premium hypothesis using the methodology of Hou, Van Dijk & Zhang (2012) to calculate a firm’s implied cost of capital.
The data, sourced from LSEG and Compustat, covering STOXX600 stocks from 2004-2022, includes carbon emission data categorized into levels, growth, and intensity.
Our main findings suggest a strong positive relationship between the carbon emission levels and the implied cost of capital. The effect was further amplified by separating the industry averages, which suggests the importance of industry-wide patterns in the evaluation of climate-related risks. Additionally, firm residual emission intensity exhibits a strong negative relationship with the implied cost of capital, as the substantial number of firms consistently report lower than industry-average emission levels and expected return maintains at around 10%.
In summary, this research provides supportive insights into the relationship between carbon emissions and implied cost of capital, contributing to the understanding of sustainable investment impacts on financial markets