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Peacebuilding: Lessons for Afghanistan
Get PDFThis report examines lessons from previous peacebuilding
efforts in Afghanistan, and from other countries, in order to
highlight issues of central relevance for the present phase of
peacebuilding and economic recovery. It consists of two
papers commissioned by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign
Affairs. The report argues that the most promising strategy
is to strengthen national institutions. At the same time, the
report warns against a rapid infusion of funds for
reconstruction, and proposes a careful start with a long-term
perspective. Placing a large assistance package on the table
at the present time may encourage a fight over “the spoils of
peace”, and entrench the power of the warlords.
There is no blueprint for peacebuilding based on experiences
from other countries, but relevant lessons are nevertheless
found. Innovation, risk-taking and flexibility are important
in formulating strategies. Most important in Afghanistan is
to establish institutions that will prevent future conflict
among the victors. Employment generation and external
budget support to core state functions are essential, while
security sector reforms will be difficult and require a longterm
approach. The modest UN mission will leave a “light
footprint”, but other actors seem to counteract this positive
feature
Socio-economic effects of HIV/AIDS in African countries
Get PDFThis desk study was commissioned by NORAD to review recent literature on socio-economic consequences of the HIV/AIDS pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa with focus on Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia. The report gives a general socio-economic overview and identifies some issues of importance for Norway's assistance to the five focus countries. It is hoped that the report will provide useful background material for development assistance officials and other interested parties.
Overall, the report argues that for the countries focused, the present decade will be the worst ever with regard to AIDS morbidity and mortality. The exception is Uganda, which was early at launching an effective anti-AIDS campaign.
The report stresses the severe long-term consequences of the pandemic but finds little evidence of attempts to explore future socio-economic effects emanating from profound changes in population structures. It is recommended that Norway offers support to countries which attempt to explore the future demographic and societal effects of AIDS.
Since the population in the focus countries is already poor and vulnerable, the pandemic will be serious for these countries. The poorer households and in particular women and children are likely to be worst affected. Agricultural production, of key importance for incomes and food supply, is set to drop from already low levels. Families and communities break apart and young people's future becomes insecure. The manufacturing sector, transport, mining, construction, tourism and the financial sector will be hit in various ways. Recent studies of African countries looking at key determinants of long-term growth indicate considerable reductions in the growth rate of GDP per capita as a result of the AIDS pandemic.
The study argues that the fight against HIV/AIDS in Africa must come at the top of national and international agendas mainly because AIDS is now the biggest killer in Africa and hits the most productive segment of the population. It is stressed that the amount of resources for the fight against HIV/AIDS will increase. Efforts will have to be mainstreamed in public sector planning and budgeting.
It is important that Norway assists the most affected countries to improve resource flow monitoring, to learn from each other by using the diversity in anti-AIDS strategy and integrate their planning and management of the crisis into country planning frameworks
Political Islam in South Asia
Get PDFThis report analyses the growth of political Islam in South Asia (Pakistan, Afghanistan and India’s Jammu and Kashmir Province). In Pakistan the failure of parliamentary democracy and the weakening of civil society have spurred the growth of social protest in the form of a political Islam. Pakistan is still a moderate Islamic country, but with a growing and increasingly violent Islamic militant lobby. The army is still firmly in charge but because of its patronage of the key militant groups, cannot take decisive action against them.
The Kashmir conflict has for half a century marred relations between India and Pakistan and is currently the biggest security threat in the region. The intensification of the conflict since 1989 in the form of an insurgency against Indian rule was in large measure due to growth of political Islam.
The Taliban movement was created and nurtured by Pakistan and support for its regime in Afghanistan was a cornerstone of Pakistan’s foreign policy. Although the Taliban regime has been defeated militarily, it can still present a long-term challenge to a future government in Afghanistan. The presence of the Al Qaeda “cells” in Pakistan’s tribal areas and in some of the major cities pose a security threat, especially if they ally themselves with the country’s most militant groups
An analysis of Tanzania's 1998 imports. A sector of origin and end use analysis of Tanzania's goods imports, undertaken for the Macmod model
Get PDFThis paper reports on an analysis made of Tanzania’s 1998
imports, undertaken as part of the Macmod project. The
analysis entails the classification of imported goods according
to their sector of origin and their end use
Kan vi kjøpe mer fra våre samarbeidsland? Hvem vet hva og hvordan?
Get PDFThis report explores the potential for increasing imports to Norway from its main development partners. The analysis is based on three main indicators: i) a trade intensity index (commodities which the development partners are exporting, but where Norway is importing relatively less than similar OECD countries); ii) the peak tariff rates (commodities where tariff rates are high); and iii) the utilisation rate of commodities with preferential tariffs (commodities where the development partners are not fully utilising the preferences). In addition, interviews were conducted with Norwegian importers of clothing, toys, food and gifts to identify their problems when importing from developing countries. Finally, the report identifies persons and institutions with expertise on problems faced by developing countries when trying to penetrate the Norwegian market.
We find that Norway is importing relatively less than other OECD countries from most of its development partners, particularly for agricultural products. Based on the trade intensity index, we identify a further import potential of products such as prawns, coffee, sugar, fruits and nuts.
Norway has particularly high tariffs on clothing and agricultural products. Tariffs on clothing favour the least developed countries (LDCs) and members of the European Economic Area (EEA) at the cost of ordinary developing countries, which do not have preferential treatment.
Extending such preferential treatment to all developing countries will spur imports from China in particular.
From 1 July 2002, all imports from LDCs to Norway will have duty free access. In the short run, the import potential of agricultural products from LDCs seems limited, since these countries are net importers of the relevant product categories.
The utilisation rate of Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) in Norway is about 80 percent and China is the primary beneficiary. We argue for targeting the GSP system towards LDCs. We also argue that Norway should liberalise its rules of origin for clothing products in order to increase the utilisation rate. The project is financed by the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (NORAD)
A review of Ireland Aid's Human Rights and Democratisation Scheme
Get PDFIn 1997, Ireland Aid (IA) established a Human Rights and Democratisation (HRD) scheme in order to assist projects outside IA’s programme countries. Its broad objective is to assist the development of democratic processes and institutions and the promotion and protection of human rights, mainly through support for relatively small-scale projects that contribute to training and capacity building.
Particular importance is attached to the impact of projects on awareness of HRD issues at grassroots community level and on the capacity of communities to assert their rights and gain access to and understanding of the processes and institutions of government. Funding for HRD projects is channelled through Irish, overseas and local NGOs, as well as through other international bodies. Requests for funding under the HRD scheme are also occasionally received from the Political Division of the Department of Foreign Affairs.
The main objective of this review is to outline strengths and weaknesses of the HRD scheme to date and to suggest practical options for its future direction
Social Development and Foreign Direct Investments in Developing Countries
Get PDFThis study analyses the link between social development and foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing countries. Previous empirical studies conflict in their view of the impact of wage levels and human capital on FDI, whereas some aspects of political stability appear to attract investment, and corruption deters FDI. In this study, we use panel data from 61 developing countries for the period 1989- 2000, and estimate the relationship between disaggregate socio-political indices and FDI. The most robust variables influencing FDI prove to be political rights, civil liberties, democratic accountability, religious and ethnic tensions and internal conflict. Interpreting the results, the social development variables that matter for FDI flows seem to be those most closely associated with investors’ perception of long term stability, whereas other social development variables have limited impact on overall FDI
Best Practice in Capacity Building in Public Finance Management in Africa. Experiences of NORAD and Sida
Get PDFThis study was contracted by Sida and NORAD for the purpose of summarising experiences in capacity building for Public Finance Management (PFM) in Africa. In particular, the two organisations’ attempts to take a more comprehensive approach to PFM were to be highlighted. The study is a desk study, based on a review of policy documents.
An overview of the Swedish and Norwegian approach for support to PFM reveals a number of similarities between the two donors. In particular, since the seventies and eighties, their approach has moved away from the concept of “filling holes” based on standalone technical assistance to PFM institutions. Presently, the donor agencies, at least in theory, approach PFM as a system, comprising the above-mentioned components. In the diagnostic phase they attempt to take a systemic view, although most interventions focus components or sub-components.
Tentative recommendations that the authors see emergingfrom their examination of Sida and NORAD projects as well as other sources of experience are as follows:
- A long view is necessary.
- It is important to analyse the entire PFM system and to undertake interventions that are balanced between the components of PFM (Planning, budgeting, Auditing, Accounting etc.).
- Support the education and training of economists and accountants to build up a strong professional cadre of accountants and economists.
- Improve human resource management systems (like salaries and career opportunities) to attract competent personnel for PFM.
- Institutionalise the dialogue between recipient agencies and donor agencies during both diagnostic and implementation stages.
- The development perspective has to guide the development of PFM.
- Ideally, the recipient government, not the World Bank should provide leadership for support to PFM under joint donor “umbrellas”.
- Support and encourage regional organisations and networks in the PFM field.
- Consider implementation conditions such as: The level of political will to improve PFM; Degree of organisational and institutional blockages; Terms and conditions for key staff; Capacity for capacity building
- Link PRSP poverty reduction approaches, budgetary support and PFM improvement. The quality of PFM will be a decisive factors in ensuring that recipients policy decisions and agreements with donors actually lead to a greater flow of public sector resource for poverty reduction
The fight against corruption and the role of parliamentarians
Get PDFThis note outlines some challenges facing parliamentarians in the fight against corruption. To succeed, it is argued, requires open-mindedness with respect to the weaknesses of political institutions, and to seriously consider the possible role of politicians in fuelling corruption
Angola 2001/2002. Key Development Issues and Aid in a Context of Peace
Get PDFThis is the third report on Angola under the Country Advisor Agreement between the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (NORAD) and Chr. Michelsen Institute. The report consists of a part I synthesising and assessing existing information regarding political, economic and social developments in Angola, and a Part II focussing on development aid in a context of peace. This is done through contributions on the economy, the state and civil society by leading social scientists on Angola, originally presented at the seminar “Preparing for Peace. Workshop on Future Swedish and Norwegian Development Cooperation with Angola” hosted by CMI 8-9 April 2002