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Cost-effectiveness of wastewater-based environmental surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in Blantyre, Malawi and Kathmandu, Nepal:a model-based study
No full textWastewater-based environmental surveillance (ES) has been demonstrated to provide an early warning signal to predict variant-driven waves of pathogens such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Our study evaluated the potential cost-effectiveness of ES for SARS-CoV-2 compared with clinical testing alone. We used the Covasim agent-based model of COVID-19 to simulate disease transmission for hypothetical populations in Blantyre, Malawi, and Kathmandu, Nepal. We simulated the introduction of a new immune-escaping variant over 6 months and estimated health outcomes (cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) and economic impact when using ES to trigger a moderate proactive behavioral intervention (e.g., increased use of masks, social distancing) by policymakers versus no ES and hence a delayed reactive intervention. Costs considered included for ES, clinical testing, treatment, and productivity loss for the entire population due to implementation of the behavioral intervention. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and compared these with local willingness-to-pay thresholds: 249 for Nepal. We performed sensitivity analyses to evaluate the impact of key assumptions on the results. Costs are reported in 2022 US dollars. We estimate that if ES were implemented, approximately 600 DALYs would be averted in Blantyre and approximately 300 DALYs averted in Kathmandu, over the six-month period. Considering health system costs, ES was cost-effective in Blantyre and cost-saving in Kathmandu. Cost-effectiveness of ES was highest in settings with low clinical surveillance, high disease severity, and high intervention effectiveness. However, from the societal perspective, ES may not be cost-effective depending on the magnitude of population-wide productivity losses associated with the proactive behavioral intervention and the cost-effectiveness threshold. SARS-CoV-2 ES has the potential to be a cost-saving or cost-effective tool from the health system perspective when linked to an effective public health response. From the societal perspective, however, the length of the behavioral intervention and its consequences for productivity losses of the entire population may make ES not cost-effective. Implementing ES for multiple pathogens may improve its cost-effectiveness
Ethical loneliness and the undermining of social capital:how racism shapes loneliness in three UK Asian communities – a mixed methods study
No full textLoneliness can have severe health impacts, and ethnic minority groups may face heightened risks due to structural barriers like racism. This study explores the relationship between racism, social capital and loneliness among Chinese, Indian, and Pakistani communities in Britain. Using mixed methods, we analyse secondary data from the Evidence for Equality National Survey (EVENS) and data from qualitative interviews with 20 older adults and 8 key informants. Our findings show that racism not only exacerbates loneliness but also appears to undermine the positive effects of social capital in reducing loneliness. Ethnic bonding does not consistently protect against loneliness; instead, participating rarely in ethnic activity is associated with less loneliness for Chinese and Pakistani people. We find that marginalisation and isolation within ethnic communities, particularly due to socio-economic status, can exacerbate loneliness and, together with limited English proficiency, hinder the building of bridging ties. Furthermore, although a sense of belonging to British society (bridging capital) lowers loneliness, institutional racism undermines this benefit, leading to ethical loneliness – a profound sense of isolation and abandonment. The findings emphasise the need for policies that enhance both ethnic bonding and bridging capital while addressing structural racism and social inequalities
Author correction:local tuning of Rydberg exciton energies in nanofabricated Cu<sub>2</sub>O pillars
No full textCorrection to: Communications Materials https://doi.org/10.1038/s43246-024-00481-9, published online 28 March 202
Dynamics of stratospheric wave reflection over the North Pacific
No full textStratospheric wave reflection events involve the upward propagation of planetary waves, which are subsequently reflected downward by the stratospheric polar vortex. This phenomenon establishes a connection between the large-scale circulations in the troposphere and in the stratosphere. Here, we investigate a set of wave reflection events characterized by an enhanced difference between poleward eddy heat flux over the northwestern Pacific and equatorward eddy heat flux over Canada. Previous research has pointed to a link between these events and anomalies in the tropospheric circulation over North America, with an associated abrupt continental-scale surface temperature decrease over the same region. In this study, we elucidate the dynamical mechanisms governing this chain of events.We find that the evolution of meridional heat flux anomalies over the northwestern Pacific and Canada around reflection events is explained by a westward-propagating geopotential height ridge and by the downstream development of a trough. The trough advects colder-than-average air southward in the lower troposphere over North America, leading to an abrupt temperature decrease close to the surface. The evolution of this large-scale pattern resembles the shift from a Pacific Trough to an Alaskan Ridge weather regime, with approximately one-third to one-half of such transitions associated with reflection events. Furthermore, stratospheric wave reflection events exert a far-reaching influence on the tropospheric circulation across the northern middle and high latitudes. For example, a few days after the reflection-driven temperature decrease across North America, the North Atlantic jet stream becomes unusually intense and zonal, favoring the occurrence of extreme winds over Europe
Where the wild bees are:birds improve indicators of bee richness
No full textWidespread declines in wild bee populations necessitate urgent action, but insufficient data exist to guide conservation efforts. Addressing this data deficit, we investigated the relative performance of environmental and/or taxon-based indicators to predict wild bee richness in the eastern and central U.S. Our methodology leveraged publicly available data on bees (SCAN and GBIF data repositories), birds (eBird participatory science project) and land cover data (USDA Cropland Data Layer). We used a Bayesian variable selection algorithm to select variables that best predicted species richness of bees using two datasets: a semi-structured dataset covering a wide geographical and temporal range and a structured dataset covering a focused extent with a standardized protocol. We demonstrate that birds add value to land cover data as indicators of wild bee species richness across broad geographies, particularly when using semi-structured data. These improvements likely stem from the demonstrated sensitivity of birds to conditions thought to impact bees but that are missed by remotely sensed environmental data. Importantly, this enables estimation of bee richness in places that don’t have direct observations of bees. In the case of wild bees specifically, we suggest that bird and land cover data, when combined, serve as useful indicators to guide monitoring and conservation priorities until the quality and quantity of bee data improve
Narrating and negotiating difference in the Insular Viking Age
No full textThis paper explores the terms used in medieval Insular sources to refer to raiders, traders, settlers and their descendants from Scandinavia and from among the Scandinavian diaspora in the four centuries after the first surviving records of viking raids. The choice and use in Insular textual production of relational terminology such as gennti (gentiles), Gaill (foreigners), heðenen (heathens), pagani (pagans), barbari (barbarians), piratae (pirates) and wícing/ucing (pirate, sea-rover) was deliberate, especially once named leaders and more specific geographical or ethnic terminology begin to appear in the same sources, and material and scholarly networks are considered. This reflects a deliberate othering by Insular scribes, grounded in both the contemporary scholarly milieu and on biblical and late antique intellectual traditions. Furthermore, there are important regional distinctions in how these others are conceptualised, with Irish and Welsh scribes making recourse to the Old Testament and English scribes drawing on late antique patristics
A Lost but Truly Great Russian Novel
No full textNJЁ ROMAN I HUMBUR RUS, VЁRTET I MADH [A Lost but Truly Great Russian Novel] (translated from the English into Albanian by Bardhyl Selimi). 2025. KosovaLindore. 13 May. http://www.kosovalindore.com/nj%d1%91-roman-i-humbur-rus-v%d1%91rtet-i-madh
Data transparency and reproducibility in health research:bridging the gap for early-career researchers
No full textIn the evolving and interdisciplinary landscape of health and disease research, data transparency and reproducibility are increasingly recognised as essential for maintaining scientific integrity and trust. This article invites early-career researchers (ECRs) to engage critically with these principles while navigating the pressures of academic progression, publication demands, and career development. It examines the challenges ECRs face in maintaining reproducible practices and underscores the need for institutional support, inclusive training, and mentorship across all stages of the research career. Drawing on global initiatives and case studies, the article advocates for a more collaborative, diverse, and mentally healthy research culture. It also highlights alternative career pathways beyond academia, empowering ECRs to explore opportunities in industry, government, and non-governmental organisations. By integrating transparency with values such as team science, responsible metrics, and researcher wellbeing, this article reflects the ethos of the new generation of scientists and offers a timely call for systemic change and collective action to strengthen the future of research culture.</p
Distinct intraseasonal oscillation modes over the tropical Indo-Pacific oceans
No full textIn boreal winter, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), which bridges weather and climate. In addition to the dominant eastward propagating MJO mode, this study identifies the existence of the westward propagating and stationary oscillating ISO modes according to the spatio-temporal evolution of large-scale precipitation. At the pentad timescale, each ISO mode tends to suppress the occurrence of the other two. The diagnostic of column-integrated moist static energy (MSE) tendency anomalies reveals the dominant contribution from horizontal MSE advection to each ISO mode. Synthesis results indicate that vertical zonal wind shear anomalies exhibit opposite distributions between the propagating and stationary oscillating ISO events over the tropical Indo-Pacific Oceans. Subsequent simulations prove that the easterly (westerly) wind shear anomalies could suppress the eastward (westward) propagating convection of the ISO, thus favoring a stationary oscillating ISO