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Calibration of correction factors for source, attenuation and site effects to predict ground shaking across Italy
No full textThis doctoral research focuses on improving the spatial prediction of ground shaking across Italy by
developing empirical correction factors for source and attenuation effects and creating a new
national-scale Vs30 map to account for site conditions. These tools are designed to support and
enhance the generation of empirical ground-shaking scenarios at both regional and local scales.
The work is framed within the fields of applied seismology and seismic hazard assessment. Its goal
is to improve the accuracy of ground motion predictions and reduce the uncertainty associated with
the classical ergodic assumption still widely used in empirical Ground Motion Models (GMMs).
Ground motion is the result of the combination of three fundamental components: the earthquake
source, the wave propagation path, and local geological conditions (site effects). While traditional
empirical GMMs allow for fast and reliable ground motion estimates, they rely on the ergodic
assumption, which implies that variability observed across multiple sites is representative of the
variability expected at a single site over time. However, practically, this assumption tends to
overestimate uncertainty and fails to capture regional geological and tectonic peculiarities.
In this context, the regionalization of source and attenuation effects is based on the analysis of
residuals, defined as the logarithmic differences between ground motion observations and model
predictions, and their decomposition into repeatable components following the methodology of Al
Atik et al. (2010): between-event residuals (δBe), representing source effects not captured by the
GMMs; site-to-site residuals (δS2S), associated with site effects not explained by the reference
model; and within-event residuals (δWes) corrected for source and site, which may include additional
effects not accounted for by the model, such as regional propagation phenomena or source
directivity.
In this thesis, the δBe and δWes components are spatially modeled to identify homogeneous zones
and derive regional correction factors for source and attenuation.
The entire process is supported by a robust dataset, in particular the ITACAext database (Brunelli et
al., 2022), which includes more than 37,000 accelerometric and velocimetric recordings from over
1,800 earthquakes across Italy. As a predictive model, the ITA18 GMM (Lanzano et al., 2019),
developed for shallow crustal earthquakes in Italy, is selected as the national reference.
A large part of the work of this thesis has been spent on the evaluation of site effects, through a new
nationwide map of the shear wave velocity in the uppermost 30 m (Vs30), constructed through
parametric linear regressions and geostatistical analysis. To this end, approximately 15,000 shear
wave velocity (Vs) profiles were collected and organized into a georeferenced archive, derived from
regional microzonation studies and surveys conducted by freelancers. Furthermore, several site
proxies, both raster and vector-based, were compiled and analyzed for their correlation with Vs30 at
multiple spatial resolutions. A new lithological classification was developed and used, together with
slope, as predictors in the final Vs30 model.
The result is a comprehensive framework for generating regionalized empirical ground motion
scenarios applicable to various purposes such as the generation of ground shaking maps, the
reconstruction of historical events without recordings, and the production of scenarios for possible
future events. The methodology represents a robust and efficient alternative to physics-based
simulations, providing faster computation and improved consistency with observations.
In conclusion, this thesis contributes significantly to the evolution of ground motion prediction models,
promoting a data-driven, non-ergodic, and scientifically sound approach capable of leveraging Italy’s
rich geological and seismological data to meet the challenges of more accurate and realistic seismic
modeling
A Mapping Methodology Enabling Object-Centric Process Mining on Blockchain Applications
No full textBlockchain technology has fostered the advent of decentralised applications relying on smart contracts to encode business logic. In this context, it is particularly relevant to analyse data produced by smart contracts that can reveal valuable insights about applications and their execution. In recent years, process mining and, in particular, object-centric techniques have been considered to capture the complexity of blockchain applications and reveal their different perspectives. However, their adoption raises novel challenges related to the object-centric representation of blockchain data. To address this problem, in this work, we propose a mapping methodology guiding users to correlate blockchain data to an object-centric log without requiring advanced technical skills. The proposed methodology generates logs that are compatible with current tools and techniques, enabling in-depth analysis. The methodology was implemented as a web-based tool and its applicability was evaluated on three real-world applications together with a performance and usability assessment
Urges: un progetto di cooperazione
No full textIl contributo si inserisce nel volume che raccoglie l’esperienza di URGES, un progetto finanziato dal POR FESR Basilicata 2014-2020 e sviluppato da un partenariato composto dall’Università della Basilicata, nel ruolo di capofila, dalle Università di Lubiana, Siviglia, Chieti-Pescara, Reggio Calabria e dall’Agenzia Lucana di Sviluppo e di Innovazione in Agricoltura. Acronimo di “Urban Green Shapes”, URGES è un progetto di ricerca interdisciplinare aperto alla partecipazione di ricercatori, cittadini, enti ed aziende, che si è posto l’obiettivo di studiare e dimostrare come “forme di verde” possano contribuire ad elevare la qualità urbana e architettonica, l’efficienza energetica e il benessere degli abitanti nella città contemporanea. Per oltre due anni, si è occupato di studiare strategie innovative di rigenerazione urbana basate sul greening e sulle Nature-based solutions (NBS), mettendo in campo competenze architettoniche, paesaggistiche, agronomiche, ambientali e sociali e ponendo lo sguardo sui quartieri di edilizia pubblica come l’Arco di Matera; un’espansione nata negli anni Novanta del secolo scorso con un Piano di Edilizia Economica Popolare, che nel realizzarsi ha disatteso quell’“armonica osmosi fra città e campagna” che il suo primo progettista, Marcello Fabbri, aveva ben prefigurato con il suo disegno originale
In search of Machiavelli’s Theory of the State: umori, tumulti, ordini, Rule of Law
No full textOn Machiavelli's theory of State, political conflict, rule of la
EMPIRICAL PREDICTIVE MODELS FOR THE ESTIMATION OF ECONOMICAL LOSSES AFTER SEISMIC EVENTS
No full textEconomical loss estimation methodologies are crucial tools for governments and insurance companies to predict the consequences of earthquakes. Moreover, they permit them to proper-ly plan the allocation of resources following seismic events, and to simulate possible losses scenarios at a territorial scale. In this paper empirical probabilistic predictive models to evaluate the repairing costs expected after earthquakes are presented. These probabilistic models can be applied to different building stocks, and they directly relate the seismic intensi-ty to economic losses. Such models are based on data collected after a recent earthquake oc-curred in Central Italy, concerning both ancient churches belonging to cultural heritage and school buildings, which, instead, encompass a wider range of structural typologies. More in detail, the empirical data, required to define the probabilistic models, have been obtained by combining information coming from Shake Maps, provided by the National Institute for Geo-physics and Volcanology (INGV), information on the building properties (e.g. locations, di-mensions, construction typology), provided by both the archdiocese of Camerino and San Severino, two little towns severely stroke by the 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence, and by the Ministry of Education for what concerns schools. For both the dataset analysed, data re-lated to damage suffered and funding for damage repairs have been provided by the Recon-struction Office of the Marche Region. Information related to damage, indeed, constitutes an intermediate albeit necessary step for the definition of the cost models. Finally, proposed models also provide the opportunity to directly derive fragility curves in terms of cost, to make it possible to use the research outcomes in risk frameworks based on a discrete descrip-tion of the losses
LOCAL CLIMATE ZONE MAPPING IN HISTORICAL CITIES: A HIGH-RESOLUTION TOOL FOR URBAN CLIMATE RESILIENCE
No full textIn this study, a novel high-resolution Local Climate Zone (LCZ) classification tool, the Framework for Environmental Type Classification Hub (FETCH), is introduced. It utilises Google remote-sensing data and a 30 m × 30 m segmentation method. Through the proposed tool, climate vulnerability within typical historical urban centres was effectively analysed. Ascoli Piceno, a historic Italian town, was selected as the study area because of its complex urban morphology. Advanced computer vision and machine learning techniques were employed to process and classify the remote sensing data, ensuring the accuracy and detail of the generated LCZ map. The results indicate that the LCZ map accurately represents urban morphology, revealing distinct climate zones that closely correspond to known urban features and climate vulnerability. A tool for assessing classification errors using the Root Mean Square Error of Prediction (RMSEP) is also introduced, which ensures the reliability of LCZ classification for further analysis and decision-making. The practical relevance of the LCZ map is underscored by its potential application in urban policy, climate adaptation and environmental analysis. This study addresses the challenge of developing consistent and high-resolution LCZ maps on a global scale by leveraging high-resolution data and advanced computational methods. The findings have significant implications for urban climate research, providing a robust tool for understanding and mitigating the impacts of urban heat islands in architecturally complex and historically significant cityscapes. The methodology developed in this study can be adapted for use in other historical urban contexts to promote the development of sustainable and resilient cities in the face of climate change
Ecosistemi digitali in sanità: ruoli, strumenti e prospettive
No full textCon riguardo al settore sanitario, il legislatore sta completando l’architettura dell’ecosistema digitale che ha avuto la sua maggiore spinta grazie al PNRR adottato in conseguenza dell’emergenza sanitaria. Gli strumenti che compongono l’ecosistema digitale della sanità (FSE, STS, ANA, ecc.) modificano i ruoli tradizionali da una molteplicità di punti di vista: oltre ad un rinnovato rapporto tra l’utente e il soggetto erogatore del servizio, si rafforza la concezione pubblicistica relativa ai dati e alla loro circolazione e si inseriscono nuovi attori (su tutti le piattaforme). Si pensi, ad esempio, al decreto del Ministero della salute 31 dicembre 2024 (entrato in vigore il 5 marzo 2025 e i cui servizi saranno attivi entro il 31 marzo 2026) istitutivo dell’ecosistema dei dati sanitari funzionale al sistema del FSE e all’accoglimento del Regolamento EHDS
Lavoro e salari in Italia
No full textIl volume fornisce un quadro empiricamente e metodologicamente fondato, ma di facile lettura e comprensione, sui diversi elementi di fragilità della struttura occupazionale e delle condizioni del lavoro in Italia. I diversi capitoli mettono in evidenza le principali cause dei bassi salari e della crescita del lavoro povero e precario in Italia, riconducibili, oltre che a processi e tendenze che operano su scala globale (e che hanno visto un generale peggioramento della forza contrattuale del lavoro nei paesi di più antica industrializzazione ma non solo), ad elementi specifici del nostro sistema economico
A study on deterioration and residual service life of recovered azobé (Lophira alata) sheet piles
No full textLarge parts of banks of canals in the Netherlands are protected by azobé timber sheet piles. Many kilometers of sheet piles in the province of Noord-Holland, are planned to be replaced or to undergo maintenance. Yet, there is insufficient knowledge on the current state of the azobé sheet piles and their residual service life. Based on this, a series of investigations on azobé sheet piles after 57 years of service were performed. Visual inspections showed surface deterioration on the water-exposed side for all boards. Nondestructive testing using micro drilling technique showed no signs of internal deterioration. A maximum reduction in thickness of 17% and an average thickness reduction of 6.7% of original thickness were observed. CT scanning showed that the remaining cross sections of the azobé boards were intact and had comparable density of new azobé boards. An exponential damage accumulation model was used to predict the residuals service life of the timber sheet piles subjected to earth stress. Conservative estimates based on physical measurements and residual bending strength indicate that the sheet piles have an additional service life of 22–43 years from the current state
Design, Synthesis and Characterization of Adenosine Receptor Ligands and Enzyme Inhibitors
No full textThe present PhD thesis focuses on different fields of adenosinergic system: heterocycles as A2AAR
antagonists, nucleosides as partial A2AAR agonists, and nucleosides as A3AR agonists/antagonists. In the first section, novel therapeutic agents capable of synergistically inhibiting CK1δ isozymes
while simultaneously antagonizing A2AAR for treating chronic neurodegenerative diseases and
cancer were designed. Experimental and computational approaches to elucidate the key structural
factors governing CK1δ inhibition and AR affinity were integrated to achieve this. Findings
revealed that smaller substituents at 2 and 9-positions of adenine enhanced binding efficiency, while
dynamic binding studies identified a “flipped” binding mode that optimized interactions with the
selectivity pocket. Notably, the 9-cyclopentyl-2-dimethylamino-N6-methyl- (2-benzimidazolyl)
adenine (17) emerged as the first dual A2AAR antagonist and CK1δ inhibitor, offering a promising
multi-target therapeutic strategy. The second section synthesized a series of 2,8-disubstituted Ado derivatives through a multistep
process to investigate novel A2AAR partial agonists for EV regulation in GBM cells. Structural
modifications at 2 and 8-positions significantly influenced AR selectivity and binding affinity. Functional analyses demonstrated that 2-hexynyl-8-methylaminoAdo (1) acts as a partial agonist
capable of regulating EV release, indicating its therapeutic potential in glioblastoma treatment. These findings underscore the crucial role of structural elements in receptor interactions and their
implications for drug development. In the third section, the anticancer activity of A3AR ligands were explored by synthesizing known
substituted Ado derivatives, which behave as A3AR antagonists, and a novel A3AR agonist N6-(2,2- diphenylethyl)-2-phenylethynylMECA (5) via a multistep process and analyzing its ligand-receptor
interactions. Binding studies revealed a shift between antagonism and agonism due to modifications
in sugar moiety. Cytotoxicity assays confirmed that these compounds effectively inhibited
proliferation and induced cell cycle arrest, highlighting their potential antitumor properties