University of Bari Aldo Moro
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Unlocking extra virgin olive oil identification: predicting ethyl esters with explainable AI on IR spectra
No full textExtra virgin olive oil (EVOO) is susceptible to adulteration and degradation, making the assessment of its authenticity and quality essential. Fatty acid ethyl esters (FAEE), formed through fermentative processes, are regulated by EU legislation as key markers of EVOO quality, with acceptable levels up to 35 mg/kg. In this study, a rapid, non-destructive, and cost-effective alternative based on infrared spectroscopy combined with traditional statistical methods (i.e., Partial Least Square – PLS), machine learning (ML) and explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) is proposed. A dataset of 170 olive oil samples with FAEE concentrations ranging from 1.81 mg/kg to 109.00 mg/kg were analyzed using Fourier Transform Infrared spectroscopy. Spectral data were preprocessed and used to train various regression models. The best performance was obtained with an XGBoost model (R2 = 0.90, RMSE = 9.41 mg/kg). XAI techniques enabled interpretation of the model and identification of spectral regions mostly associated with FAEE content
Molecular tools for the specific and rapid detection of toxigenic fungal contaminants in harvested commodities
No full textAmong natural contaminants, mycotoxins represent a major issue in food safety. Mycotoxins are secondary metabolites produced by fungi belonging to the genera Aspergillus, Alternaria, Penicillium, and Fusarium. Fungal contamination begins during crop cultivation and continues throughout postharvest handling and transformation phases. Therefore, early detection and monitoring are essential to prevent irreversible health impacts in humans and livestock. Besides the necessity to be highly specific, sensitive, accurate, and reliable, detection techniques need to be fast, easy to use, cost-effective, able to detect pathogens even in complex matrices, and ideally easy to deploy on sites. In the present work, two detection assays were developed: a multiplex TaqMan real-time PCR assay for the rapid and sensitive screening of multiple infections and LAMP assay for the onsite detection of Alternaria alternata. TaqMan assay targeted distinct mycotoxigenic fungi: A. alternata, Penicillium expansum, Aspergillus ochraceus, and Aspergillus carbonarius. Sets of primers and probes were designed on genes involved in mycotoxin production: pksI (alternariol), idh (patulin), and otaY (ochratoxin A) genes. A specific multiplex to detect different deoxynivalenol chemotypes of Fusarium culmorum was also set up. Specificity of the primers/probes was confirmed using genomic DNA from producing and non-producing species. Sensitivity, repeatability, and reproducibility of the assay were evaluated using artificially inoculated matrices. Instead, the LAMP assay was designed for both colorimetric and fluorometric applications and validated on artificially inoculated and naturally contaminated food matrices to determine its sensitivity and reproducibility. Both applications were proven to be highly sensitive and specific for detecting A. alternata in various food matrices even when using unpurified DNA. The application of the detection assays to be applied designed in this study would contribute to food safety by improving the prediction of the different sources of contamination in harvested commodities at both laboratory and point-of-care level
Time-varying spillover of multi-scale positive and negative bubbles in stock and oil markets
No full textThe objective of this paper is to analyze time-varying spillover between bubbles in oil and stock markets of the U.S. In this regard, we first use the Multi-Scale Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity Confidence Indicator (MS-LPPLS-CI) approach to detect both positive and negative bubbles in the short-, medium and long-term in the two markets. In the second-step, we utilize a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model to conduct the spillover analysis among the indexes of oil and stock positive and negative bubbles. Based on data covering the monthly period of January 1999 to June 2025, we find that negative bubble spillovers are significantly stronger and more directional than positive ones, with the U.S. equity market emerging as the transmitter to the oil market post-2008. This represents a structural shift from the traditional oil-to-equity transmission paradigm. Moreover, spillover effects are most pronounced at short- and medium-term horizons, intensifying during crisis periods. Our findings suggest that oil is increasingly behaving as a financial asset rather than a physical commodity, with important implications for portfolio diversification and risk management
A compound options game model to consider competition, uncertainty and sequential nature in PPP projects valuation
No full textPublic-private partnership (PPP) projects are characterized by a high degree of uncertainty and are frequently subject to competitive pressures. Such projects entail the participation of both the public authority and the private entity (commonly designated as the concessionaire), the latter of which frequently encounters challenges in assessing the appropriateness of undertaking investment within the PPP framework. Consequently, it requires a suitable mathematical framework to assess the economic viability of these projects. Furthermore, a potential private competitor may decide to invest and participate in the project, making the strategies to be adopted by individual subjects even more complex. This study proposes a Real Options Game approach to assess the impact of competition between the concessionaire and another private firm on the decision to participate in public-private PPP projects. Within a Cournot game framework, the proposed model combines real-options concepts with game theory, incorporating the key features that characterize PPP projects. Among these are their sequential nature and the abandonment option with a salvage value that may be available to the concessionaire. This study contributes to the scientific literature by proposing a mathematical model capable of evaluating PPP projects while accounting for uncertainty, sequential decision-making, competitive interaction, and the abandonment option with a salvage value
Addressing Infectious Diseases in Vulnerable Populations Under the Auspices of One Health: A Call for Action in Europe
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Prefazione alla traduzione in italiano di Le cataratte di Nelson / Las cataratas de Nelson
No full textProtagonista della raccolta è Arturo, figura al tempo stesso ordinaria e paradigmatica: marito, padre, funzionario in un organismo internazionale, è un uomo che osserva il mondo e se stesso con una lucidità trattenuta, spesso dolente, sempre misurata. Attraverso la sua voce, Cartagena esplora le pieghe della quotidianità e del pensiero interiore con una lingua che predilige l’allusione, la modulazione sottile del tono, la sospensione del giudizio. Arturo, infatti, racconta senza spiegare, mostra senza insistere: la sua è una voce poetica che dice soprattutto attraverso ciò che evita di dire, in un equilibrio delicatissimo tra trasparenza e reticenza
Economic development and inequality of opportunity: Kuznets meets the Great Gatsby?
No full textAccording to the Kuznets hypothesis, inequality first tends to increase and then decrease as a country develops. Whether borne out empirically, this inverted-U Kuznets curve, as a stylized ‘fact’, has shaped the discourse on economic development and income inequality for decades. In this paper we investigate whether a similar relationship holds between national income per capita and inequality of opportunity: the inequality associated with inherited individual circumstances such as gender, ethnicity, and family background. As, empirically, inequality of opportunity is positively correlated with income inequality (a relationship known as the ‘Great Gatsby’ curve), the relationship between inequality of opportunity and ‘development’ is expected to display the same inverted-U shape. We suggest that the existence of a Kuznets inequality of opportunity curve can be the result of a ‘triangular’ relationship between development, income inequality, and inequality of opportunity. We then draw on the newly published Global Estimates of Opportunity and Mobility database to shed new light on this ‘triangular’ relationship, primarily in a cross-sectional context
Il fenomeno dello sharenting. Riflessioni e nuove interpretazioni di principi teorici classici
No full textDiffuso tra diversi tessuti sociali, il fenomeno dello sharenting (Dell’Antonia, 2016) rappresenta un modo nuovo di fare comunicazione attraverso la diffusione mediatica di contenuti personali che superano la dimensione del privato per divenire pubblici, spesso senza interrogarsi sulle conseguenze che l’abbattimento dei confini tra pubblico e privato potrebbero avere sullo sviluppo identitario delle nuove generazioni. Partendo da una rassegna della letteratura sull’argomento, il presente lavoro propone riflessioni diversificate sulle le ragioni che portano gli adulti a praticare lo sharenting (Cino e Demozzi, 2017)
Intrauterine oxygen/ozone mixture for the treatment of subclinical endometritis in repeat breeder cows
No full textRepeat Breeder Syndrome is a multifactorial condition in which subclinical endometritis (SCE) may represent an underlying cause. The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of an intrauterine oxygen/ozone gas mixture administered at heat in Repeat Breeder (RB) cows with SCE. Of 156 RB cows, 57 affected with SCE based on cytological evaluation using the cytobrush technique were enrolled in the controlled clinical trial. These cows were randomly allocated, using randomization software, into two groups including treated (GM; 30) and untreated (CON; 27) animals. The intrauterine bacteria occurrence was monitored before (T0) and 12 h (T12) after treatment, along with an evaluation of reproductive parameters after the 1st and 2nd artificial insemination (AI). At T0, both groups showed similar bacterial positivity rates (12/30, 40% GM vs. 14/27, 51.85% CON; p = 0.43). At T12, all GM-positive cows had cleared cultivable bacteria, whereas all CON-positive cows remained bacteriological positive (p = 0.00001). This result indicated a 100% in-vivo clearance of cultivable bacteria. Furthermore, increasing pregnancy percentages were recorded after the 1st and 2nd AI in GM group (9/30, 30% and 9/21, 43%, respectively; p < 0.05) compared to the CON group (2/27, 7% and 1/25, 4%, respectively; p < 0.001).
Overall, these preliminary findings suggest that intrauterine ozone therapy may represent a promising complementary tool for the management of SCE in RB cows, although further studies are required to confirm its efficacy and long-term benefits
The Strauss exponent for some k-evolution equation in the class of Boussinesq equations
No full textIn this paper, we prove the existence of global small data solutions to the evolution equation {vtt+Avtt+Av+A2v=Af(v),t≥0,x∈Rn,v(0,x)=v0(x),vt(0,x)=v1(x), where A=F−1(a(ξ)2) with a(ξ) homogeneous of order k, and f(v)=|v|α or it is a more general power nonlinearity. We prove our result for α>γ(r), where γ is the Strauss exponent for nonlinear equations, and r is the rank of the Hessian of a(ξ). We also consider the damped case, obtained adding +Avt to the left-hand side of the equation. We show that the effect of the dissipation is very weak, compared to the dispersion, however, it is sufficient to lower the existence exponent to some smaller, modified, Strauss exponent