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Science Denial, Cognitive Command and the Theory-Ladenness of Observation: A Postscript for a Time of ‘Post-Truth’
Get PDFOne worrying aspect of contemporary Western Society is the increasing prevalence of instances of ‘Science Denial’ in popular culture. Examples include both cases where well-attested scientific hypotheses are rejected and conversely, where scientifically discredited ideas are stubbornly retained. The paper raises the question whether the kind of argument for an anti-realist conception of empirical scientific theory considered in my contribution to the inaugural issue of this journal could in principle provide intellectual succour for these trends. The discussion proceeds through an examination of the role of ‘takings for granted’ in all reflective enquiry to the conclusion that a trusting acceptance of the general credibility of informants is a precondition for the exercise of individual epistemic responsibility, and that in that context an acceptance of at least the empirical adequacy, if not the truth, realistically understood, of the teachings of scientists in general is rationally non-optional.Output Status: Forthcoming/Available Onlin
The early impact of the UK's new alcohol taxation system on product strength and price: an exploratory comparative descriptive study
Get PDFObjectives: We explored the early impact of changes to the UK alcohol tax system, implemented in August 2023, on the strength and price of alcoholic products available for sale on the website of the largest supermarket in England. Study design: Our comparative descriptive study using longitudinal brand-level data was not preregistered and should be considered exploratory. Methods: Data were collected weekly (May to October 2023) using automated web scraping tools. Outcomes were product strength (% alcohol by volume [ABV]) and price (per 10 mL of pure alcohol and per litre of product). We undertook paired t-tests, two-sample KolmogoroveSmirnov tests, and quantile regression to compare outcomes before and after the tax changes. Beer, cider, spirits, and ready-to-drinks (RTDs) were analysed separately. Results: There was a reduction in the mean strength of beer, driven by manufacturers reformulating a small number of weaker beers, moving them into a lower tax band (<3.5%ABV). The mean price per 10 mL of alcohol and per litre of product was significantly higher after the new tax system for beer, cider, and spirits and significantly lower for RTDs. Increases in the price of beer tended to occur across the entire distribution, whereas increases in the price of cider occurred among more expensive products. Conclusions: Changes to product strength tended to occur among weaker products near the new lowest tax band, suggesting tax bands may be a potential stimulus for change. Reformulation of stronger products would have better public health potential. Longer term monitoring, including data on purchasing/consumption, is required
Impacts of droughts and human activities on water quantity and quality: Remote sensing observations of Lake Qadisiyah, Iraq
Get PDFWater quantity and quality in lakes are closely linked to the compounding effects of climate change and human activities in their catchments, especially for lakes located in semi-arid and arid regions where water resources are scarce. Whilst knowledge gaps exist for these effects in semi-arid and arid region lakes due mainly to the lack of long-term in situ monitoring data. By using satellite remote sensing data, this study firstly investigated the variations of water level, chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a) and turbidity in Lake Qadisiyah, Iraq between 2000 and 2019. Results showed that the average water level was 138.3 m in 2000–2019, it decreased clearly in 2001, 2009, 2015 and 2018 with the lowest value of 120 m in July 2015. The mean Chl-a was 6.3 mg/m3 and it showed an overall increasing trend during 2000 and 2019. Turbidity showed extremely high values (>10 NTU) in 2009 and 2017–2018 compared to the mean value of 3.6 NTU in 2000–2019. The boosted regression tree (BRT) was then used to explore the relationship between those variations and El Niño-Southern Oscillation, droughts, meteorological factors and land use land cover changes in the catchment. Results revealed that water level declines were mainly associated with droughts led by La Niña events. Chl-a increase in the lake were mainly explained by built-up area increase and water area decrease in the catchment, with a relative contribution of 29.2 % and 28.6 % respectively. Water area changes in the catchment were the main factor influencing turbidity explaining 55.3 % of the variation. An exception water level decline in 2014–2016 was also observed when there was no drought, which was most likely caused by the cut off of water flow upstream and the release of water from the dam during periods of war. The findings in this study underscored the impacts of climate and human activities on water quantity and quality in semi-arid region lakes. Actions such as improving water use efficiency, establishing water storages, and enhancing cross-border cooperation are therefore recommended to deal with extreme events. Pollution control measures in the catchment are also suggested to prevent water quality deterioration in the lake
Predator‐induced shape plasticity in Daphnia pulex
Get PDFAll animals and plants respond to changes in the environment during their life cycle. This flexibility is known as phenotypic plasticity and allows organisms to cope with variable environments. A common source of environmental variation is predation risk, which describes the likelihood of being attacked and killed by a predator. Some species can respond to the level of predation risk by producing morphological defences against predation. A classic example is the production of so-called ‘neckteeth’ in the water flea, Daphnia pulex, which defend against predation from Chaoborus midge larvae. Previous studies of this defence have focussed on changes in pedestal size and the number of spikes along a gradient of predation risk. Although these studies have provided a model for continuous phenotypic plasticity, they do not capture the whole-organism shape response to predation risk. In contrast, studies in fish and amphibians focus on shape as a complex, multi-faceted trait made up of different variables. In this study, we analyse how multiple aspects of shape change in D. pulex along a gradient of predation risk from Chaoborus flavicans. These changes are dominated by the neckteeth defence, but there are also changes in the size and shape of the head and the body. We detected change in specific modules of the body plan and a level of integration among modules. These results are indicative of a complex, multi-faceted response to predation and provide insight into how predation risk drives variation in shape and size at the level of the whole organism
Freeze-thaw geochemically altered Mars’s surface
Get PDFSulfate-rich sedimentary rocks explored by the Opportunity rover during its 14-year surface mission at Meridiani Planum provide an invaluable window into the thousands of sulfate deposits detected on Mars via remote sensing. Existing models explaining the formation of martian sulfates can be generally described as either bottom-up, groundwater-driven playa settings or top-down icy chemical weathering environments. Here, we propose a hybrid model involving both bottom-up and top-down processes driven by freeze-thaw cycles. Freezing leads to cryo-concentration of acidic fluids from precipitations at the surface, facilitating rapid chemical weathering despite low temperatures. Cryosuction causes the upwards migration of vadose water and even groundwater with dissolved ions, resulting in the accumulation of ions in near-surface environments. Evaporation precipitates salts but leaching separates chlorides from sulfates during the thawing period. Freeze-thaw cycles, therefore, can enrich sulfates at the surface. While freeze-thaw is more commonly understood as a mechanism of physical weathering, we suggest it is a fundamental aspect of chemical weathering on Mars
Horizontal transfers between fungal Fusarium species contributed to successive outbreaks of coffee wilt disease
Get PDFOutbreaks of fungal diseases have devastated plants and animals throughout history. Over the past century, the repeated emergence of coffee wilt disease caused by the fungal pathogen Fusarium xylarioides severely impacted coffee production across sub-Saharan Africa. To improve the disease management of such pathogens, it is crucial to understand their genetic structure and evolutionary potential. We compared the genomes of 13 historic strains spanning 6 decades and multiple disease outbreaks to investigate population structure and host specialisation. We found that F. xylarioides comprised at least 4 distinct lineages: 1 host-specific to Coffea arabica, 1 to C. canephora var. robusta, and 2 historic lineages isolated from various Coffea species. The presence/absence of large genomic regions across populations, the higher genetic similarities of these regions between species than expected based on genome-wide divergence and their locations in different loci in genomes across populations showed that horizontal transfers of effector genes from members of the F. oxysporum species complex contributed to host specificity. Multiple transfers into F. xylarioides populations matched different parts of the F. oxysporum mobile pathoge- nicity chromosome and were enriched in effector genes and transposons. Effector genes in this region and other carbohydrate-active enzymes important in the breakdown of plant cell walls were shown by transcriptomics to be highly expressed during infection of C. arabica by the fungal arabica strains. Widespread sharing of specific transposons between F. xylarioides and F. oxysporum, and the correspondence of a putative horizontally transferred regions to a Starship (large mobile element involved in horizontal gene transfers in fungi), reinforce the inference of horizontal transfers and suggest that mobile elements were involved. Our results support the hypothesis that horizontal gene transfers contributed to the repeated emergence of coffee wilt disease
Indicators of Integration: Assessing the Impact of Perceptions about Rights and Security, Public Outcomes, and Social Connections on Intentions to Stay of Newcomers in Armenia
No full textThis article explores the factors that influence intentions to stay in Armenia among different groups of young newcomers (aged 18–35), including ethnic Armenians displaced from Syria and Artsakh. As such, it contributes to a small body of literature on return migration to and integration in the Republic of Armenia. Drawing on a mixed methods study (surveys, focus groups, and interviews conducted across the country in 2021–2022), we found that most newcomers want to stay but face common challenges such as a lack of economic opportunities, some cultural differences, and the threat posed to Armenia's security. As analysis of Global North contexts dominate literature on integration, this article contributes to this broader literature by adapting Ager and Strang's (2008) widely-used indicators of integration framework to a much less secure or economically-favored post-Soviet, Global South context in which many newcomers share strong historical and cultural ties with the local population.1 Our results highlight the flexibility of this framework despite its Western European formulation, and emphasizes the need for in-depth and longitudinal exploration of local context (including the effects of Soviet history and structures and long experience of out-migration), and of the relative positions of newcomer and local communities
Observational and genetic associations between cardiorespiratory fitness and cancer: a UK Biobank and international consortia study
Get PDFBackground The association of fitness with cancer risk is not clear. Methods We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk of lung, colorectal, endometrial, breast, and prostate cancer in a subset of UK Biobank participants who completed a submaximal fitness test in 2009-12 (N = 72,572). We also investigated relationships using two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR), odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using the inverse-variance weighted method. Results After a median of 11 years of follow-up, 4290 cancers of interest were diagnosed. A 3.5 ml O2⋅min−1⋅kg−1 total-body mass increase in fitness (equivalent to 1 metabolic equivalent of task (MET), approximately 0.5 standard deviation (SD)) was associated with lower risks of endometrial (HR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.73–0.89), colorectal (0.94, 0.90–0.99), and breast cancer (0.96, 0.92–0.99). In MR analyses, a 0.5 SD increase in genetically predicted O2⋅min−1⋅kg−1 fat-free mass was associated with a lower risk of breast cancer (OR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.86–0.98). After adjusting for adiposity, both the observational and genetic associations were attenuated. Discussion Higher fitness levels may reduce risks of endometrial, colorectal, and breast cancer, though relationships with adiposity are complex and may mediate these relationships. Increasing fitness, including via changes in body composition, may be an effective strategy for cancer prevention.Additional authors: Cornelia M. Ulrich, Karl Smith-Byrne, Bethany Van Guelpen, The PRACTICAL consortium, CRUK, BPC3, CAPS, PEGASUS, Felix R. Day, Katrien Wijndaele, Nicholas J. Wareham, Charles E. Matthews, Steven C. Moore & Soren Brag
Using visual methods to further enhance qualitative evidence synthesis
Get PDFBackground The use of visual methods in qualitative evidence synthesis (QES) adds a valuable dimension to the synthesis process by enhancing understanding and knowledge generation. Visual methods are currently underused and underreported in QES. Methods This is the first study to describe accessible visual methods that support various stages of QES and to show the application of visual methods to a Cochrane QES of 43 studies using meta-ethnography and systematic review methods. This study also addresses the involvement of stakeholders including the public, practical considerations of equity, diversity, inclusion, and reflexivity in the selection and application of visual methods. Results In a novel approach, the review authors utilized a combination of remote and in-person visual methods to initiate and develop their synthesis, involving stakeholders throughout the process. The review authors used methods including paper labels, cartoons, infographics, virtual whiteboards, and diagrams. The rigorous use of visual methods in the QES facilitated data visualization, remote analysis meetings, interpretation of extensive data, and meaningful patient and public involvement. Conclusion QES authors are encouraged to consider the use of visual methods, particularly when involving the public in the synthesis process. When selecting visual methods, authors should consider how they align with the study's objectives, suit the stage of synthesis, might enhance analysis, their available resources, and the team's technical skills
Knowledge, beliefs, perceptions and barriers related to implementing smoke-free home practices in two rural settlement areas in Malaysia
Get PDFIntroduction: Studies have found that parental smoking is the primary source of secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure among children, leading to respiratory illnesses, especially in non-smokers like children and women. Promoting a smokefree home (SFH) is essential, especially among rural populations, and barriers or challenges to creating a SFH need to be better understood. This study aimed to determine the knowledge levels on SHS and to identify the beliefs, perceptions, barriers and facilitators of SFH practices among the rural population in Kuala Kubu Bharu, Selangor, Malaysia. Methods: This study employed a mixed-methods design, conducted in two rural settlement areas in 2022. Data were collected through surveys on SHS and SFH knowledge and face-to-face interviews using a topic guide. The quantitative data were analyzed using SPSS software while the qualitative data were analyzed using the thematic approach via NVivo 12. Results: Sixty participants completed the survey. Most of the respondents had a good (38%) or moderate (48%) knowledge level of SHS. No association was found between sociodemographic factors and knowledge level. Seven of the nine interviewees knew specific SHS-related health risks. Most participants believed that implementing SFH requires quitting or reducing smoking. Barriers to establishing a SFH included personal convenience, habits, attitudes, and social influence. Family encouragement, practicability, government, and quitting smoking were the facilitators for SFH. Conclusions: These rural communities had moderate knowledge level of SHS and SFH. Men’s knowledge, beliefs and perceptions like associating SFH with quitting smoking may prevent SFH adoption. It is critical for the government and stakeholders to disseminate information and develop socially and culturally acceptable health promotion programs, incorporating the considerations from this study to increase the chances of SFH implementation in rural areas.Good Health and Well-Bein
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