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Energy Transition in Contractual Practice
Full text linkIn the context of the current global discussions on energy transition as part of the response for the move towards achieving net zero, this paper examines upstream activities which involve the extraction of transition mineral in the context of international investment contracts, and argues for a reengineering of the stabilisation, applicable law and dispute resolution clauses, to align with the global policy goals for achieving energy transition
UK Forecasts of Annual GDP: Their Accuracy and the Information Categories Underlying Their Revisions
Full text linkPolicy makers are concerned with the accuracy of GDP forecasts and want to understand the reasons for the revision of forecasts. We study these issues by examining forecasts of annual UK GDP growth by a panel of agents, published monthly by HM Treasury. We focus on two main issues: the developing accuracy of the group‐mean forecast as horizons shorten and the identification of information categories underlying agents' forecast revisions. The accuracy of the group‐mean forecast is poor; there is evidence of information rigidity in forecasts within the target year, and accuracy only improves in May of the target year when contemporary information flows lead to increased accuracy. We find a pessimism bias; the median errors of group‐mean forecasts are increasingly positive for horizons shorter than 17 months. We seek to explain revisions to both long‐ and short‐horizon group‐mean forecasts and individual agent forecasts. Modeling individual agents' forecast revisions using a moving window, we note a consistent tendency by agents to revise their forecast towards the group‐mean. Although their importance varied over time, the main information categories explaining revisions were, over longer horizons, the cost of finance, production, and a business confidence indicator. FX rates and inflation were influential over shorter horizons
Methods v. Purposes in Skinner: For a Textualist Approach to Constitutional and Parliamentary Debates
Full text linkThe feminist serial killer novel: A subgenre of contemporary global crime fiction
No full textWith increasing intensity, the twenty-first century has ushered in a new subgenre of the feminist, woman serial killer story. Undoubtedly, and in no small part related to the rise of podcasts, as well as the growing interest in historical crime and true crime, the success of television shows and films, this small (perhaps niche) but wide-ranging subgenre has yet to be fully explored. In this article, I will begin to explore the feminist woman serial killer novel. I will argue that this global subgenre is characterized by narrative and feminist features in relation to murder, motive, and the genre of crime fiction itself. I will base this study on four novels: Oyinkan Braithwaite’s My Sister, the Serial Killer (2019), Asako Yuzuki’s Butter (2017), Perihan Mağden’s Escape (2012), and Katy Brent’s How to Kill Men and Get Away with It (2023), which have remarkable similarities, despite being written and set in disparate cultures and different languages. The woman serial killer novel can be understood as subversive of the (masculinist) conventions of crime fiction and radical in its representation of serial murder. This article will examine how these novels convey their feminist narratives in response to conventions in previous male-focused serial killer fiction, mobilizing new conventions and aesthetics to establish a feminist perspective
Where Are All of Asia’s Debt-for-Nature Swaps?
Full text linkSince their inception in 1987, debt-for-nature swaps (D4NS) have emerged as a popular policy tool to simultaneously address sovereign debt burdens and environmental challenges. Drawing on a newly constructed database of global D4NS transactions, this paper shows that Asian economies have played only a marginal role, accounting for just 13% of global transactions. I argue that a combination of limited debt distress, relatively inexpensive debt burdens, and low levels of privately held debt help explain this historical underrepresentation. Using a logit econometric model, the analysis identifies missed opportunities for D4NS transactions in the 1990s in countries such as Papua New Guinea, Thailand, and Turkmenistan. Applying this framework to current economic conditions highlights that, within Asia, Indonesia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Maldives, Mongolia, and Thailand are particularly well positioned for future D4NS activity. The findings emphasize the need for a more proactive, anticipatory approach by fiscal policymakers, debt managers, and conservation organizations to capitalize on emerging opportunities in a region facing mounting debt and environmental pressures
Economic Policy Uncertainty and Firm Profitability in Nigeria: Does Oil Price Volatility Deepen the Shock?
No full textRecent studies have focused on the detrimental effects of global economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on firm profitability. Nevertheless, none of these studies has focused on a developing economy like Nigeria. To understand this, the study conducted a host of regression analyses using the Driscoll and Kraay fixed-effect estimator and the two-step system generalised method of moments to examine the effects of global crude oil prices and domestic and global economic policy uncertainty on firm profitability in Nigeria from 2005 to 2024. The findings indicate that while global EPU had a minimal impact on firm profitability, domestic EPU had a substantial negative impact. The findings remain consistent even across the sub-samples, sensitivity, and robustness analyses. Furthermore, the findings showed that firm size and capital are significant determinants of profitability for Nigerian firms. At the same time, oil prices and their interactions do not affect firm profitability in Nigeria. The study suggests that regulators in the Nigerian business environment can contribute to building a more resilient environment by implementing systems to monitor critical economic indicators and ensure timely responses to emerging challenges. Systematic evaluations of economic uncertainties, including business sentiment, inflation rates, exchange rates, interest rates, and economic growth, can provide valuable insights for policy formulation and interventions aimed at enhancing the profitability of Nigerian firms
Top-down "hoarding disorder" or bottom-up "disorganised living"? Examining Windows of Opportunity through Policy Implementation
No full textThis paper asks how “hoarding disorder” (a top-down clinical category) and “disorganised living” (a bottom-up, practice-oriented framing) generate different thresholds of access, definitions of need, and attributions of responsibility within contemporary welfare states. Using Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Framework, we analyse “windows of implementation”: the legal, organisational, and epistemic conditions that enable particular interventions to become thinkable and legitimate at specific moments.Drawing on a comparable case-study design, we juxtapose three intervention frameworks embedded in distinct institutional settings: (1) a specialist NHS service offering CBT-based group treatment for hoarding; (2) an English local-authority multi-agency safeguarding protocols enacted through the Care Act 2014 and risk-led coordination; and (3) a German municipal guidance and counselling model, a low-threshold social-work service that addresses disorganised living and prioritises navigation, participation, and case-open diagnostics. We argue that the central stakes of hoarding governance lie less in identifying a single “best practice” than in understanding how agenda setting, eligibility thresholds, and institutional dynamics shape who is served and on what terms. The analysis highlights dynamics of adverse selection and cream-skimming, the limits of crisis-driven multi-agency coordination, and the bottom-up reform potential of navigator functions that make existing welfare infrastructures usable for people living in disorganised circumstances.Keywords: hoarding disorder, multiple stream framework, need-assessment, agenda setting, disorganised living
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