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Animal spirits, hubris, narcissism: Behavioural determinants of merger and acquisition outcomes
Get PDFThis paper draws upon the animal spirit, hubris, and narcissism
theories to conduct an empirical study investigating
the behavioural determinants influencing mergers and acquisitions
(M&A). While M&A transactions have shown a trend of value
destruction for acquiring firm shareholders, they have
simultaneously demonstrated value enhancement for shareholders
of the acquired firms. The repercussions of this value erosion
extend beyond shareholders, impacting pension funds, employees,
customers, suppliers, government tax revenues, and banks within
the economy. Utilising a long-event window methodology,
the research examines cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) for
acquirers’ shareholders over a three-year post-completion period,
focusing on Australian acquisitions from 1990 to 2006.
The findings highlight animal spirit, hubris, and narcissism as
significant behavioural determinants shaping M&A outcomes,
thereby contributing to the ongoing discourse on hubris and
hubris syndrome in M&A, with a suggestion that narcissism may be
more prevalent than hubris. Additionally, the study identifies
the joint tenure period of the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
(CEO) in the acquiring firm as a statistically significant factor
contributing to acquiring firm shareholder value in M&A activities.
Notably, a significantly negative correlation between CEO
remuneration change and M&A outcomes is found. The paper
recommends enhanced transparency for remuneration and
nominations committees to address corporate governance issues
raised by the study
Work-in-Progress—Enhancing Cyber Prevention Education: Utilising Virtual Reality Technology for Parents/Carers and Teachers.
Get PDFPolice organisations in the United Kingdom are tasked with promoting cyber prevention activities and awareness, to mitigate the increasing risk of cyber dependent crimes. There is a worrying increase of perpetrators of cyber criminality who are under the age of 18. To help prevent young people from delving into cyber criminality, the police encourage parents/carers and teachers
to refer individuals they suspect are at risk of committing cybercrimes, in order to direct the keen interest in technology for positive use. However, parents/carers and teachers may lack knowledge regarding this subject and may be unable to identify indicators of illicit activities. This work-in-progress paper introduces a solution to address this concern through an immersive virtual reality serious game, targeted towards adults of varying technical competencies. Additionally, initial feedback collected from practitioners and the target audience will be presented
Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Get PDFBackgroundAccurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.FindingsDuring the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.InterpretationFertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Assessing the determinants of participation in the circular plastic economy by Nigerian students
Get PDFPurpose
This study aims to address the critical subject of building capacity for the circular economy in the global south. It complements the literature by providing information on the role of higher education institutions in developing skills for the circular plastic economy.
Design/methodology/approach
This study used a mixed method approach drawing on reflective analysis on qualitative data from 5 focus groups and 12 semi-structured interviews, and structural equation modelling of quantitative data from 151 students across 4 Nigerian Universities.
Findings
The results indicate that Nigerian university students are more likely to participate in the circular plastic economy through a high prominence of soft power features such as increased awareness, inspiration, idea generation, encouragement and capacity building.
Research limitations/implications
The main limitation of this study is with the sample. A larger data set, including other tertiary institutions such as private universities, polytechnics and schools of vocational studies, would strengthen the results.
Practical implications
The study underlines the importance of targeted policy interventions and pedagogic innovations to drive awareness and knowledge building among Nigeria’s youth population.
Originality/value
This study makes a novel contribution by using empirical evidence to determine the predictors of student participation in the circular plastic economy. This understanding is important for the development and implementation of appropriate policies that promote participation in the circular plastic economy. Furthermore, given the typical youthful age bracket of university students, any plans to achieve a systemic shift in the plastic value chain must involve the young generation
Generative AI in Higher Education. Innovation Strategies for Teaching and Learning.
No full textThis book is a valuable resource for educators navigating the ever-changing landscape of education technology
Beyond the Ivory Tower: Toward a More Inclusive Approach to University Scholarship
Get PDFAcademia, as we know it, has been shaped by a history of exclusion based on class, race, and gender. By extension, that history has moulded our conceptualisations of what constitutes knowledge and scholarship. This article challenges academics to consider how, as keepers of knowledge, we can simultaneously be agents of scholarly change in novel ways that are expansive and inclusive
Tackling Visual Illumination Variations in Fall Detection for Healthcare Applications
Get PDFThis paper presents an innovative approach for fall detection, a significant concern in elder care, using vision-based techniques and video analysis. By employing and comparing supervised machine learning algorithms for recognising falls, The paper examines the impact of different environmental conditions on the fall detection system, focusing on illumination, an aspect previously overlooked in the field. The study introduces a vision-based fall detection method using Human Pose Estimation (HPE) models, specifically MoveNet, for feature extraction from human gestures and temporal moving features. Selected machine learning algorithms and neural network models are then trained and compared using these features to recognise video events such as falls and non-falls. The presented results show promising 70.6% accuracy and real-time model efficiency. This study’s findings hold significant potential for enhancing timely fall detection in real-world scenarios
Mapping working practices as systems: An analytical model for visualising findings from an institutional ethnography
Get PDFThis paper presents a new methodological model that was developed whilst carrying out an Institutional
Ethnography to explore school food working practices. The model brings together two complementary approaches;
Institutional Ethnography and Systems Thinking, to offer a novel approach to the analysis and visualisation of
ethnographic data as systems maps that show how power shapes practices. This novel contribution allows for the
mapping of complex working practices to show interdependencies and flows, and addresses limitations in the applicability of Institutional Ethnography to policy research. This approach will be useful for researchers and
practitioners who want to utilise findings from Institutional Ethnography to design effective interventions, change outcomes of working practices, or tackle policy problems
Data hiding in anti-forensics – Exploit delivery through digital steganography
Get PDFDevelopments in digital forensics investigations have occurred along with those in anti-forensics. Legal issues involving cybercrime are difficult to investigate and even more difficult to prosecute since a forensic investigator must often develop a case by examining artefacts left on a device or network. When cyber criminals became more aware of the techniques utilized in digital forensics, countermeasures to these approaches were developed. The goal of these procedures is to sabotage forensic investigations, and many of them are readily available and simple to use. The purpose of this research is to improve our understanding of these Anti-Forensic technologies by doing in-depth individual analyses and discussing the functionality and methods, as well as the possibilities of mitigation. The topic of this Anti-Forensics study is within Data Hiding; there are different ways available; however, this project focuses on a steganography tool known as Stegosploit and looks to see if embedding JPG images with malicious code without visual distortion of the image is conceivable