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An options-pricing approach to election prediction
Get PDFYesThe link between finance and politics (especially opinion polling) is interesting in both theoretical and empirical terms. Inter alia the election date corresponds to the effective price of an underlying at a known future date. This renders a derivative pricing approach appropriate and, ultimately, to a simplification of the approach suggested by Taleb (2018). Thus, we use an options-pricing approach to predict vote share. Rather than systematic bias in polls forecasting errors appear chiefly due to the mode of extracting election outcomes from the share of the vote. In the 2016 US election polling results put the Republicans ahead in the electoral college from July 2016 onwards. In the 2017 UK general election, though set to be the largest party, a Conservative majority was far from certain
The versatile biomedical applications of bismuth-based nanoparticles and composites: therapeutic, diagnostic, biosensing, and regenerative properties
Get PDFYesStudies of nanosized forms of bismuth (Bi)-containing materials have recently expanded from optical,
chemical, electronic, and engineering fields towards biomedicine, as a result of their safety, cost-effective
fabrication processes, large surface area, high stability, and high versatility in terms of shape, size, and
porosity. Bi, as a nontoxic and inexpensive diamagnetic heavy metal, has been used for the fabrication of
various nanoparticles (NPs) with unique structural, physicochemical, and compositional features to
combine various properties, such as a favourably high X-ray attenuation coefficient and near-infrared (NIR)
absorbance, excellent light-to-heat conversion efficiency, and a long circulation half-life. These features
have rendered bismuth-containing nanoparticles (BiNPs) with desirable performance for combined cancer
therapy, photothermal and radiation therapy (RT), multimodal imaging, theranostics, drug delivery,
biosensing, and tissue engineering. Bismuth oxyhalides (BiOx, where X is Cl, Br or I) and bismuth
chalcogenides, including bismuth oxide, bismuth sulfide, bismuth selenide, and bismuth telluride, have
been heavily investigated for therapeutic purposes. The pharmacokinetics of these BiNPs can be easily
improved via the facile modification of their surfaces with biocompatible polymers and proteins, resulting
in enhanced colloidal stability, extended blood circulation, and reduced toxicity. Desirable antibacterial
effects, bone regeneration potential, and tumor growth suppression under NIR laser radiation are the main
biomedical research areas involving BiNPs that have opened up a new paradigm for their future clinical
translation. This review emphasizes the synthesis and state-of-the-art progress related to the biomedical
applications of BiNPs with different structures, sizes, and compositions. Furthermore, a comprehensive
discussion focusing on challenges and future opportunities is presented.Academy of Finland (grant no. 317316); Finnish Cultural Foundation for its financial support (decision no. 00190246); HiLIFE Research Funds, the Sigrid Juse´lius Foundatio; Academy of Finland (grant no. 317042)Research Development Fund Publication Prize Award winner, Jan 2020
A review of modelling and verification approaches for computational biology
Get PDFThis paper reviews most frequently used computational modelling approaches and formal verification techniques in computational biology. The paper also compares a number of model checking tools and software suits used in analysing biological systems and biochemical networks and verifiying a wide range of biological properties
Soil fungal networks maintain local dominance of ectomycorrhizal trees
Get PDFYesThe mechanisms regulating community composition and local dominance of trees in species-rich forests are poorly resolved, but the importance of interactions with soil microbes is increasingly acknowledged. Here, we show that tree seedlings that interact via root-associated fungal hyphae with soils beneath neighbouring adult trees grow faster and have greater survival than seedlings that are isolated from external fungal mycelia, but these effects are observed for species possessing ectomycorrhizas (ECM) and not arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi. Moreover, survival of naturally-regenerating AM seedlings over ten years is negatively related to the density of surrounding conspecific plants, while survival of ECM tree seedlings displays positive density dependence over this interval, and AM seedling roots contain greater abundance of pathogenic fungi than roots of ECM seedlings. Our findings show that neighbourhood interactions mediated by beneficial and pathogenic soil fungi regulate plant demography and community structure in hyperdiverse forests.This research was funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Project No. 2017YFA0605100) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC 31770466 to X.L. and 31870403 to M.L.), and partly supported by awards from the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC NE/M004848/1 and NE/R004986/1). D.J. is also supported by the N8 AgriFood programme
Protection of buried rigid pipes using geogrid-reinforced soil systems subjected to cyclic loading
Get PDFYesThe performance of buried rigid pipes underneath geogrid-reinforced soil while applying incrementally increased cyclic loading was assessed using a fully instrumented laboratory rig. The influence of varying two parameters of practical importance was investigated; the pipe burial depth and the number of geogrid-layers. Measurements were taken for pipe deformation, footing settlement, strain in pipe and reinforcing layers, and pressure/soil stress on the pipe crown during various stages of cyclic loading. The research outcomes demonstrated a rapid increase in the rate of deformation of the pipe and the footing, and the rate of generated strain in the pipe and the geogrid-layers during the first 300 cycles. While applying further cycles, those rates were significantly decreased. Increasing the pipe burial depth and number of geogrid-layers resulted in reductions in the footing and the pipe deformations, the pressure on pipe crown, and the pipe strains. Redistribution of stresses, due to the inclusion of reinforcing layers, formed a confined zone surrounding the pipe providing it with additional lateral support. The pipe invert experienced a rebound, which was found to be dependent on pressure around the pipe and the degree of densification of the bedding layer. Data for strains measured in the geogrid-layers showed that despite the applied loading value and the pipe burial depth, the tensile strain in the lower geogrid-layer was usually higher than that measured in the upper layer
Fundus-controlled perimetry (microperimetry): Application as outcome measure in clinical trials
Get PDFYesFundus-controlled perimetry (FCP, also called 'microperimetry') allows for spatially-resolved mapping of visual sensitivity and measurement of fixation stability, both in clinical practice as well as research. The accurate spatial characterization of visual function enabled by FCP can provide insightful information about disease severity and progression not reflected by best-corrected visual acuity in a large range of disorders. This is especially important for monitoring of retinal diseases that initially spare the central retina in earlier disease stages. Improved intra- and inter-session retest-variability through fundus-tracking and precise point-wise follow-up examinations even in patients with unstable fixation represent key advantages of these technique. The design of disease-specific test patterns and protocols reduces the burden of extensive and time-consuming FCP testing, permitting a more meaningful and focused application. Recent developments also allow for photoreceptor-specific testing through implementation of dark-adapted chromatic and photopic testing. A detailed understanding of the variety of available devices and test settings is a key prerequisite for the design and optimization of FCP protocols in future natural history studies and clinical trials. Accordingly, this review describes the theoretical and technical background of FCP, its prior application in clinical and research settings, data that qualify the application of FCP as an outcome measure in clinical trials as well as ongoing and future developments
An Investigation into the Performance of Ethnicity Verification Between Humans and Machine Learning Algorithms
Get PDFThere has been a significant increase in the interest for the task of classifying
demographic profiles i.e. race and ethnicity. Ethnicity is a significant human
characteristic and applying facial image data for the discrimination of ethnicity is
integral to face-related biometric systems. Given the diversity in the application
of ethnicity-specific information such as face recognition and iris recognition, and
the availability of image datasets for more commonly available human
populations, i.e. Caucasian, African-American, Asians, and South-Asian Indians.
A gap has been identified for the development of a system which analyses the
full-face and its individual feature-components (eyes, nose and mouth), for the
Pakistani ethnic group. An efficient system is proposed for the verification of the
Pakistani ethnicity, which incorporates a two-tier (computer vs human) approach.
Firstly, hand-crafted features were used to ascertain the descriptive nature of a
frontal-image and facial profile, for the Pakistani ethnicity. A total of 26 facial
landmarks were selected (16 frontal and 10 for the profile) and by incorporating
2 models for redundant information removal, and a linear classifier for the binary
task. The experimental results concluded that the facial profile image of a
Pakistani face is distinct amongst other ethnicities. However, the methodology
consisted of limitations for example, low performance accuracy, the laborious
nature of manual data i.e. facial landmark, annotation, and the small facial image
dataset. To make the system more accurate and robust, Deep Learning models
are employed for ethnicity classification. Various state-of-the-art Deep models
are trained on a range of facial image conditions, i.e. full face and partial-face
images, plus standalone feature components such as the nose and mouth. Since
ethnicity is pertinent to the research, a novel facial image database entitled
Pakistani Face Database (PFDB), was created using a criterion-specific selection
process, to ensure assurance in each of the assigned class-memberships, i.e.
Pakistani and Non-Pakistani. Comparative analysis between 6 Deep Learning
models was carried out on augmented image datasets, and the analysis
demonstrates that Deep Learning yields better performance accuracy compared
to low-level features. The human phase of the ethnicity classification framework
tested the discrimination ability of novice Pakistani and Non-Pakistani
participants, using a computerised ethnicity task. The results suggest that
humans are better at discriminating between Pakistani and Non-Pakistani full
face images, relative to individual face-feature components (eyes, nose, mouth),
struggling the most with the nose, when making judgements of ethnicity. To
understand the effects of display conditions on ethnicity discrimination accuracy, two conditions were tested; (i) Two-Alternative Forced Choice (2-AFC) and (ii)
Single image procedure. The results concluded that participants perform
significantly better in trials where the target (Pakistani) image is shown alongside
a distractor (Non-Pakistani) image. To conclude the proposed framework,
directions for future study are suggested to advance the current understanding of
image based ethnicity verification.Acumé Forensi
Response surface methodology for predicting the dimethylphenol removal from wastewater via reverse osmosis process
Get PDFYesReverse Osmosis (RO) process can be considered as one of the intensively used pioneering equipment for reusing wastewater of several applications. The recent study presented the development of an accurate model for predicting the dimethylphenol removal from wastewater via RO process. The Response Surface Methodology (RSM) was applied to carry out this challenge based on actual experimental data collected from the literature. The independent variables considered are the inlet pressure (5.83-13.58) atm, inlet temperature (29.5-32) ° C, inlet feed flow rate (2.166-2.583) × 10-4 m3/s, and inlet concentration (0.854-8.049) × 10-3 kmol/m3 and the dimethylphenol removal is considered as the response variable. The analysis of variance showed that the inlet temperature and feed flow rate have a negative influence on dimethylphenol removal from wastewater while the inlet pressure and concentration show a positive influence. In this regard, F-value of 240.38 indicates a considerable contribution of the predicted variables of pressure and concentration against the process dimethylphenol rejection. Also, the predicted R2 value of 0.9772 shows the high accuracy of the model. An overall assessment of simulating the performance of RO process against the operating parameters has been systematically demonstrated using the proposed RSM model
Chieftaincy reform, decentralisation and post-conflict state reconstruction and peacebuilding in Sierra Leone 2004-2012
Get PDFLiberal peacebuilding, the means by which transition societies can be reconfigured and reconstructed to bring about lasting peace, focussed on chieftaincy reform and decentralization as part of the peacebuilding package in Sierra Leone. The main focus of this research is to explore the efficacy of these structures as durable peacebuilding mechanisms in a transition society like Sierra Leone. The core argument is that liberal peacebuilding based on the reform of chieftaincy and decentralisation has failed to deliver effective peacebuilding mechanisms in Sierra Leone. Chieftaincy reform should have taken into consideration the specific context of the nature of chieftaincy in the country which in most cases transcends issues of leadership to one of collective identity. The decentralisation process is also fraught with a host of problems ranging from tension between the councils and the chiefs on the one hand, to the unwillingness on the part of central government to cede some of its powers to the local government. The control of central government over the councils and the decentralisation process is still very visible. The relevance of this research is that it enhances our understanding of key debates and policy intervention practices on post-war peacebuilding and state reconstruction in transition societies. It also contributes to the existing literature on post-conflict peacebuilding by positing that there is a huge challenge to the Liberal Peace paradigm in bringing about peace in war-torn societies.Commonwealth Commissio
Quality and continuity of medication management when people with dementia transition between the care home and hospital setting
Get PDFImproving medication management at transitions of care is a national and
international priority. People with dementia, who transition between hospitals
and care homes, can be at an increased risk of adverse events, harm and costly
re-hospitalisation. There is limited research which examines factors which may
influence the quality and continuity of medication management in this context,
particularly in the UK.
This research uses a systems approach to explore the factors which may
influence the quality and continuity of medication management when people,
with dementia, move between the care home and hospital setting. This multi method, multi-phase study included interviews with hospital staff, care home
staff, residents with dementia and relatives and examination of policies and
documents used to support medication management at transition.
Overall, policy recommendations and implementation strategies to support
medication management at transition were limited. Residents, staff and relatives
emphasised the importance of administration routines and preferences, but
there were no strategies to support the communication of this information.
Procedures, tools and training to support care homes based medication
reconciliation was also limited. Residents and relatives were rarely involved in medication management due to limited resources and decision making. This
sustained, rather than challenged, the power imbalance between residents and
staff. Better defined roles and integrated processes which take account of the
needs of this transition may help residents, relatives and care home staff to feel
valued and empowered to provide information which supports person-centred
medication management and boost resilience by helping to identify medication
errors or adverse events.Alzheimer’s Societ