3,524 research outputs found
Analisi di rischio e incertezza: l’uso dei metodi Monte Carlo per i rischi naturali.
No full textLa stima del rischio associato ad un qualsiasi evento, cioè, le analisi di rischio, sono sempre caratterizzate da un certo
grado di incertezza, che può essere più o meno elevato a seconda del livello della conoscenza scientifica in merito al
fenomeno trattato.
Caratterizzare tale incertezza, ovvero esprimerla e quantificarla nel risultato finale, appare però indispensabile ai fini di
un uso del dato più chiaro, giustificato e trasparente. Nel campo dei rischi naturali, la maggior parte delle attuali
metodologie di analisi trascura però questo aspetto, non fornendo indicazioni sufficienti in merito all’affidabilità del
risultato. Il presente studio propone quindi l’uso dei metodi Monte Carlo, già applicati con successo in altri settori, ai
fini di un’analisi dei rischi naturali di tipo probabilistico. In particolare trasforma il cosiddetto “metodo con memoria”,
proposto in ambito sismico, in un metodo, trasferibile ad altri ambiti oltre a quello sismico, in grado non solo di
comprendere e di caratterizzare l’incertezza legata alla scelta dei parametri che concorrono a quantificare il rischio ma
anche di trasferirla e quantificarla nel risultato finale. Un caso studio sul territorio della Garfagnana ha permesso di
verificare il metodo
A behavioural model for quantifying flood warning effectiveness, Journal of flood risk management
No full textThe extent of losses avoided as a result of a warning is a key measure of warning
system effectiveness. Tools to estimate the impact of warnings on losses are limited
to postflood analysis or estimates of potential rather than actual damages. This
paper illustrates a method for the appraisal of actual damages when a flood
warning is issued. The approach combines social science with engineering
approaches to the problem of flood warning effectiveness. From a starting point
of estimating potential damages by means of depth–damage curves, the method
allows the identification of damage reduction by modelling how people respond to
the warning. The model is in the form of an event tree representing human
behavioural steps in the flood warning process. Two Australian case studies show
how to apply the developed methodology. The results from these cases demonstrate
the utility of the event-tree model that also allows the identification of weak
links in the warning chain
Defining complete post flood scenarios to support risk mitigation strategies
No full textThe chapter starts with a definition of a complete damage scenario after an event. Then, the specific post‐event
assessment methodology, prepared by the collaboration of Umbria Civil Protection Authority and researchers
from Politecnico di Milano, is explained. The methodology has been applied to two cases: the floods that
occurred in the Umbria Region, Central Italy, in November 2012 and November 2013, which provoked significant
damage to multiple sectors. The primary focus of the research is to complete a post‐event scenario that
highlights the different combination of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability factors and specific characteristics that
emerge from those factors across space and time
On the Influence of Input Data Quality to Flood Damage Estimation: The Performance of the INSYDE Model
Get PDFIN-depth SYnthetic Model for Flood Damage Estimation (INSYDE) is a model for the
estimation of flood damage to residential buildings at the micro-scale. This study investigates the
sensitivity of INSYDE to the accuracy of input data. Starting from the knowledge of input parameters
at the scale of individual buildings for a case study, the level of detail of input data is progressively
downgraded until the condition in which a representative value is defined for all inputs at the census
block scale. The analysis reveals that two conditions are required to limit the errors in damage
estimation: the representativeness of representatives values with respect to micro-scale values and
the local knowledge of the footprint area of the buildings, being the latter the main extensive variable
adopted by INSYDE. Such a result allows for extending the usability of the model at the meso-scale,
also in different countries, depending on the availability of aggregated building data
Spina centrale, l'axe structurant du projet de rénovation urbaine à Turin. La qualité du project
No full textVariations on the Author
Get PDF“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
I cromosomi di Dinophilus gyrociliatus (Polychaeta; Dinophilidae): il cariotipo femminile.
No full textThe sex ratio of Dinophilus gyrociliatus is affected by genetic, environmental and maternal factors,but it was suggested that sex was determined by male heterogamety. In female embrios, a diploid number of 24 chromosomes was determined. Preliminary results on male embryos karyotype evidenced 2n=23 chromosomes, confirming the occurrence of a XX-X0 sex chromosome system
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