26 research outputs found
Impact of COVID-19 on the Jordanian economy: Economic sectors, food systems, and households
No full textEconomic growth in Jordan potentially will come to a halt this year. This comes as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. Government imposed an economic lockdown which restricted non-essential economic activities and people’s movement in order to contain the virus. A SAM multiplier model was used to estimate the economic impact of the lockdown and to explore potential recovery pathways for the Jordanian economy. Some of the key findings from this modeling exercise are:
• National GDP is estimated to have fallen by 23 percent during the lockdown period. The services sector was hardest hit, seeing an estimated drop in output of almost 30 percent.
• Food systems in Jordan are estimated to have experienced a reduction in output by almost 40 percent.
• Employment losses during the lockdown were estimated at over 20 percent, mainly driven by job losses in services, followed by agriculture.
• Household income fell on average by around one-fifth due to the lockdown, mainly driven by contraction in service sector activities, by slowdown in manufacturing activity, and by lower remittances from abroad.
• GDP growth rates for Jordan’s economy will continue to be negative through 2020, ranging from -5.7 to -7.4 percent, depending on the speed of economic recovery. A slow pace of recovery is expected.
This economic recovery offers opportunities for fostering sustainable economic transformation and structural change. Economic policies and incentives should be directed towards more economic diversification, greater resilience to withstand economic shocks, and job creation.Non-PRIFPRI1; CRP2; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; EgyptSSP; COVID-19 Measuring Impacts and Prioritizing Policies for Recovery; Agricultural Investment Data Analyzer (AIDA); UNFSSDSGD; PIMCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM
Impact of falling remittances amid COVID-19 on Yemen’s war-torn economy
No full textEven before the COVID-19 pandemic battered economies across the world, Yemen had already experienced a half decade of civil war, resulting in a loss of approximately 45 percent of its real GDP by the end of 2019, according to the Yemeni Ministry of Planning. As the conflict continued, remittances from Yemenis working outside the country kept many households afloat and became an increasingly important source of income, estimated at $3.77 billion in 2019 — around 13 percent of GDP.Non-PRIFPRI4; CRP4; Agricultural Investment Data Analyzer (AIDA); CRP2DSGD; PIM; DGO; A4NHCGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH
Impact of COVID-19 on the Yemeni economy: How the drop in remittances affected economic sectors, food systems, and households
No full textThere has been an unprecedented decline in the flow of remittances to Yemen – a vital source of money for millions – as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier model of Yemen’s economy was used to estimate the impact of lower remittances on economic sectors and employment, food systems, and household incomes.Non-PRIFPRI1; CRP2; EgyptSSP; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; COVID-19 Measuring Impacts and Prioritizing Policies for Recovery; Agricultural Investment Data Analyzer (AIDA); UNFSSDSGD; PIMCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM
The impact of COVID-19 on Tunisia’s economy, agri-food system, and households
No full textThe COVID-19 crisis is expected to lead to a 46.4 percent decline in Tunisia’s GDP during the 2nd quarter of 2020 (April to June). The industrial sector will be hit hardest, with output falling by 52.7 percent, followed closely by services (-49.0 percent) and agriculture (-16.2 percent). These high losses are a result of the complete lockdown imposed in the country to contain the pandemic.
Higher-income urban households will see the largest income losses, although lower-income urban households also will experience significant reductions in their income. As a policy response, social transfers towards poorer households will reduce the adverse welfare impact of these drops in household income. Government policies to support struggling businesses will allow economic activities to revive more rapidly when the lockdown loosens. Consequently, comprehensive planning by the Government of Tunisia to re-open the economy will be critical to reduce the pandemic’s adverse impact on the country’s economy in the longer-term, reducing losses of employment and income, especially in manufacturing and retail.Non-PRIFPRI1; EgyptSSP; CRP2; DCA; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; COVID-19 Measuring Impacts and Prioritizing Policies for Recovery; Agricultural Investment Data Analyzer (AIDA)DSGD; PIMCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM
New Social Accounting Matrix for Jordan: A 2015 Nexus project Social Accounting Matrix
No full textThis new Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Jordan is a snapshot representation of the Jordanian economy in which productive activities, factors of production, and economic transactions between the main agents, including households, government, and the rest of the world, are illustrated in a circular flow. It has been constructed using IFPRI's Nexus format, which uses common data standards, procedures, and classification systems for constructing and updating national SAMs. This new SAM for Jordan is expected to be an important dataset for the Arab (Agricultural) Investment for Development Analyzer (AIDA), which is tool based on computable general equilibrium (CGE) model analyses. AIDA was developed to inform national and regional development strategies by providing evidence on the impact of agricultural investments on economic development.Non-PRIFPRI1; CRP2; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; EgyptSSP; Agricultural Investment Data Analyzer (AIDA); Nexus SAMsDSGD; PIMCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM
Impact evaluation report: Egypt’s Takaful Cash Transfer Program: Second round report
No full textEgypt introduced the Takaful and Karama Program (TKP), a pair of targeted cash transfer schemes in 2015. In 2018, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) completed the first round of impact evaluation of TKP, based on household survey data collected after the first 15 months of the program. In the period between the first-round evaluation and the data collection for this report in January 2022, Egypt faced an enormous economic shock in the COVID-19 pandemic with a complete loss of tourism, which before the crisis was responsible for 12% of GDP and 10% of employment (IMF, 2021). A follow-up evaluation was designed to assess whether impacts estimated from the first round have been sustained and whether longer duration of treatment has led to impacts on additional outcome variables. This follow-up impact evaluation was conducted using a regression discontinuity (RD) design similar to the first round but using a different sample of households much more tightly concentrated around the 4500 thresholds to address concerns about the smaller discontinuity. We find that households invested in assets, particularly productive assets and Takaful households reduced their debt burdens. There were no measurable impacts of the Takaful program on household consumption or poverty, which may be partially explained by changes in household demographics. We also find that Takaful improved school enrollment and attendance and contributed to household’s ability to cope with shocks.Non-PRIFPRI; EgyptSSP; CRP2; Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity (EIBC); 5 Strengthening Institutions and GovernanceDSGD; PHND; PIMCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM
Nutrition-sensitive food distribution amidst inflationary shock: Evidence from a randomized intervention in Egypt
No full textWe evaluate the impacts of a traditional food distribution and a nutrition-sensitive food distribution intervention in the context of a rapidly increasing inflationary pressure in Egypt. Besides evaluating the relative and absolute impacts of these interventions on household food and nutrition security, we also examine their impacts on households’ preferences for in-kind versus cash transfers. We implement a clustered randomized control trial through which we randomly assigned communities into: (i) “nutrition-sensitive” food box, (ii) traditional “staple-heavy” food box, and (iii) control group. We find that the nutrition-sensitive food distribution cushioned falls in dietary quality and food security of targeted households relative to the control group while the impact of the traditional and staple-heavy food distribution appears to be negligible. The nutrition-sensitive food boxes increased beneficiary households’ dietary diversity by about 9 percent while also increasing energy, protein, and iron intake by 12, 13, and 19 percent, respectively. We also find that experience with the food boxes increases households’ preference for in-kind transfers, more so among households experiencing high inflation rates and among those households not covered by other food and cash transfer programs. Receiving food boxes increases preference for in-kind transfer by about 9-11 percentage points. Our findings have important implications for the debate on the efficacy of alternative interventions to support poor households as food prices rise and the relative efficacy of in-kind and cash-transfers. The lack of effectiveness of the staple-heavy food boxes suggests that the design and content of in-kind transfers are crucial when considering this policy option, including compared to cash.Non-PR2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all; IFPRI1; Capacity StrengtheningDevelopment Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategie
Investing in the agri-food system for post-COVID-19 recovery: An economywide evaluation of public investments in Egypt
No full textThis note presents the results of an evaluation of public investment options for Egypt’s agri-food system. Nine agriculture-related public investments are considered, including targeting public spending to expand farm production, e.g., irrigation improvements, input subsidies, agricultural research, and extension, and to promote downstream agro-processing and marketing. The outcome indicators considered are economic (GDP) growth, incomes of the poor, job creation, and dietary diversity. IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) economywide model is used for the evaluation because it captures linkages between sectors, households, and rural-urban economies and measures changes within and beyond the agri-food system. RIAPA is linked to the Agricultural Investment and Data Analysis (AIDA) module that tracks investment impacts and costs over time. The ranked results of the public investment options considered, summarized in the table here, can help prioritize agri-food system investments for post-COVID-19 recovery.Non-PRIFPRI1; CRP2; EgyptSSP; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Agricultural Investment Data Analyzer (AIDA); UNFSS; RIAPADSGD; PIMCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM
Egypt’s Takaful Cash Transfer Program: Impacts and recommendations from the second round evaluation
No full textEgypt’s national cash transfer program, Takaful, and its sister program Karama covered 17 million poor beneficiaries as of 2022, about 16 percent of the Egyptian population. Takaful was designed in 2015 as a conditional cash transfer program providing income support targeted to the most vulnerable, namely poor families with children under age 18. As one of the largest programs — both in absolute terms and in terms of share of the population covered — in the wave of national cash transfer programs spreading across Africa, as well as an innovator among countries in the Middle East, Egypt’s experience has the potential to serve as a model for these regions. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), in collaboration with the Ministry of Social Solidarity, conducted a first-round evaluation of the program in 2017 to estimate its effects on household well-being (Breisinger et al. 2018). That evaluation found large positive impacts on several outcomes, most notably, household consumption. The second-round evaluation, conducted in 2022, found a shift toward greater investment in physical and human capital among program beneficiaries. This brief summarizes the main findings from that second-round evaluation, noting differences from the first evaluation results and providing key recommendations.PRIFPRI1; Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity (EIBC)Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategies; Poverty, Gender, and Inclusion (PGI); Food and Nutrition Polic
Regional developments
No full textAs the coronavirus pandemic reached every corner of the world in 2020, countries responded rapidly with an array of policies to stop the spread of the highly contagious disease, and then with social and economic policies to protect food security, incomes, and livelihoods. This experience brought attention to weaknesses in health, economic, and social protection systems. But it also showcased new innovations, policy approaches, and the surprising resilience of food systems. The diverse experiences of the world’s major regions have important lessons for creating sustainable, equitable, efficient, healthy, and resilient food systems. The impact of COVID-19 on food systems, wellbeing, and future transformation is examined for each major region.PRIFPRI4; NSSP; CRP2; EgyptSSP; PACE; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; G Cross-cutting gender themeDGO; PIM; LAC; MTID; PHND; DSGD; ECAO; SAR; AFRCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM
