15 research outputs found
Pakistan: Impacts of the Ukraine and global crises on the economy and poverty
No full textRussia-Ukraine conflict is increasing uncertainty, which in turn is fueling volatility in global commodity and financial markets. Global food, fuel, and fertilizer prices have risen sharply driven largely by this conflict and sanctions imposed on Russia. Export bans and disruptions in global trade and international supply chains have also contributed to rising prices having implications for economic and food security for countries like Pakistan. This price shock came at a time when the fragile economy of the country was recovering from the effects of COVID-19 pandemic and grappling with the threat of climate change (severe heat wave in March-April 2022 and cataclysmic floods in August-September 2022) Price shock has affected the Current Account Deficit (CAD) and Balance of Payments since Pakistan is a net importer of oil, LNG, edible oil, and now wheat and may impact economic growth in FY2023. In March 2022, per barrel price of oil saw an increase of 59 percent (USD118) as compared to December 2021. It is estimated that ‘as long as the conflict in Ukraine rages on, oil prices will remain above USD100/barrel, even though they are closer to USD90/barrel in October 2022. In 2022, gas prices are expected to increase by at least 50 percent, especially in Europe, where they have increased by more than 2.5 times in the last year due to its heavy dependency on Russian energy’.2 Palm oil and wheat prices increased by 56 and 100 percent in real terms, respectively, between June 2021 and April 2022. The CAD increased from USD 3.1 billion in FY2021 to 17.7 billion in FY2022. However, excluding the impact of oil and edible oil, the CAD could have fallen to around USD 7.7 billion. The increase in administered prices of fuel and electricity as well as shortages in wheat production has increased food inflation from 16.6 percent in September 2021 to 28.6 percent in September 2022 (YoY) while the overall CPI increased from 9.0 to 23.2 percent during the same period. Pakistan’s trade volume with Ukraine and Russia has been rising. During the last 24 years, the bilateral trade between Pakistan and Ukraine was USD 800 million including USD 739 million imports in 2021 (1.3 percent of Pakistan’s total imports). Likewise, the trade with Russia was USD 711 million including USD 537 million imports in 2021 (1.3 percent of Pakistan’s total imports).Non-PRIFPRI1DSGD; SA
Horticulture policy for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
No full textPakistan’s rich soil and four seasons are favorable for horticulture. The country’s horticultural sector: (a) benefits from favourable and diversified agroecological conditions; (b) geographically and strategically well placed to enhance its exports to highly competitive but lucrative markets like Middle East, Afghanistan, Iran, China, Central Asian Republics, Europe and Far East; and (c) plays a major socioeconomic role in Pakistan, in particular for women’s economic empowerment. While Pakistan is a major producer of horticultural products, its tremendous export potential remains largely untapped. The sector’s structure, the characteristics and varieties of the Fruits and Vegetables (F&V) grown locally, and the way in which F&V are being cultivated, aggregated, and transported have a huge bearing on the sector’s trade performance and have a tremendous impact on its competitiveness. The production base is highly fragmented, with approximately 85% of the orchards having an area of less than 12.5 acres.Non-PRIFPRI1; PACE; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food IndustryDSG
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Food Outlook Report (Rabi) 2022 - Rabi crops 2021-22
No full textA Food Outlook report explains the crop situation with in specific geographical boundaries. It identifies the past trends in area, production, yield, and price and predict future trends based on past values, thereby helping the government entities to make well informed decisions and farm growers to maximize profitability. The purpose of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Food Outlook Report is to understand the trends and forecasts relating to area, production, yield, and price of four major rabi crops of KP i.e., wheat, gram, garlic, and onion for 2021-22 cropping season. The report provides commodity balance sheet showing changes in crop stocks, utilization, and output. Moreover, the forecasts analysis may help in anticipating any upcoming shock related to food demand and supply. It also helps farmers to take advantage of emerging opportunities and prevent themselves from any anticipated losses.Non-PRIFPRI1; PACE; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 5 Strengthening Institutions and GovernanceDSG
A 2019-20 social accounting matrix for Balochistan, Pakistan
No full textThis paper documents the different steps followed to construct Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Balochistan for the year 2019-20. More precisely, it describes the estimation methods and the nature of the data used in developing the SAM at the subnational level. The Balochistan SAM includes 13 production activities, 4 factors of production, 4 household groups and rest of the world account, assessing linkages between production, factor income distribution, and households’ incomes and expenditures, and capturing distributional effects. The Balochistan SAM reveals that the shares of services and manufacturing sector remains lower than national average and there is an overwhelming contribution of the livestock and horticulture sector in the subnational economy which has the potential in boosting national livestock and horticulture exports. Further, the consumption pattern in Balochistan supports Engle’s law of consumption showing that with an increase in households’ income, the share of expenditure on food decreases and consumption of non-food items increases.
This paper is organized as follows. The first section presents an overview of Balochistan province of Pakistan. The second Section highlights the background of Social Accounting Matrix and its key features. The third section review the literature and various efforts made to develop Pakistan SAM with varying features. The fourth section describes the process and the methodology used to develop SAM. The fifth section presents the structure of Balochistan SAM, accounts, and data sources and elaborates the process and techniques used to balance Balochistan SAM. The sixth section highlights the structure of Balochistan’s economy and an evaluation of value addition. The seventh section underscores the key findings of Balochistan SAM. The final section underlines how the SAM Balochistan can contribute to evidence-based policy making that helps in economic growth and reducing poverty in Balochistan.Non-PRIFPRI; Pakistan Agricultural Capacity Enhancement Program (PACE); 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; Capacity StrengtheningDevelopment Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategies; SA
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa food outlook report: Kharif crops 2021-22
No full textA food outlook report explains the past, current, and future situation of various crops in a specific geographical location. A food outlook report is useful in showing the trends and fluctuations in the cultivated area, production, yield, prices, and other variables. This information is helpful for relevant stakeholders in determining the possible impending shortages or gluts in the food market. A timely analysis on food output and prices can enable policymakers to make wellinformed decisions that can result in controlling market distortions. A major benefit of such reports is that it can predict any anticipated shock or guide about exploiting a growing opportunity. The forecasts conducted in this food outlook report can be helpful in determining the supply and prices of the crops at their harvesting time. To counter a foreseeable shortage or glut, governments can work with the relevant stakeholders to enable timely imports or exports of the crop. One of the main objectives of this paper is to make timely and evidence-based decisions to overcome gaps between food production and consumption growth, and to increase access of the growing population to affordable foods.Non-PRIFPRI1; PACE; CRP2; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; Capacity Strengthening; PSSPDSGD; PIMCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM
The Size of Trade Misinvoicing in Pakistan
Get PDFTrade misinvoicing has remained a critical issue for the entire developing world. Trade misinvoicing involves misreporting in the invoices of imported and exported commodities for various malign purposes. This study conducted estimation of the extent of trade misinvoicing carried out in Pakistan from 1972-2013 with its 21 developed trading partners in 52 major traded commodities. The study adopted c.i.f./f.o.b. methodology to measure discrepancies in the partner countries data. All four components of trade misinvoicing, i.e., imports under-invoicing, imports over-invoicing, exports under-invoicing and exports over-invoicing are estimated here. The study finds that total trade misinvoicing in Pakistan for the overall period of 41 years was more than 2.25 billion. The gross revenue losses incurred to the national exchequer due to trade misinvoicing in the overall period was estimated at 0.5 billion. Moreover, the total net loss was estimated to be 0.26 billion in the form of the evasion of customs duties and exports withholding tax
Trade Agreements and Export Creation: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan’s Exports at Industry Level
Get PDFThis paper examines patterns of export creation and diversion by analyzing Pakistan’s trade agreements at the two-digit industry level for all 88 export-oriented industries. We compare the net change in exports with nine free trade agreement (FTA) partners and the top 15 partners with most-favored nation (MFN)status. We find that 45 industries account for USD4.1 billion in export creation across all Pakistan’s FTA partners. Here, net exports increase after FTAs with both FTA and MFN partners. Conversely, export diversion worth USD137 million occurs in 10 industries with all FTA partners as net exports to FTA partners rise while net exports to MFN partners fall. In the same manner, we find that net exports in 33 industries declined by USD500 million with FTA and MFN partners. The total net exports addition after FTAs was USD3.5 billion or, on average, USD350 million annually, accounting for about 1.4 percent of Pakistan’s total annual goods exports. On average, Pakistan has successfully created exports in half its export-oriented industries, although highly subsidized industries exhibit either export diversion or a net decline with both MFN and FTA partners. A difference-in-difference analysis shows that exports to China and Mauritius rose significantly while the remaining seven FTA partners did not have a significant increase in exports after the FTAs were implemented. In view of these findings, we suggest revisiting the policy of export subsidies
The Magnitude of Trade Misinvoicing and Resulting Revenue Loss in Pakistan
Get PDFThis study estimates the magnitude of trade misinvoicing in Pakistan with 21 of its developed trading partners in 52 major traded commodities during 1972–2013. We find that the total volume of trade misinvoicing for this period exceeds US21.2 billion. Moreover, the total net revenue loss is an estimated US$11 billion in the form of evasion of customs duties and export withholding tax. The annual average net revenue loss due to trade misinvoicing is almost equivalent to 11.2 percent of the total revenue generated from customs tariffs. We also find that customs tariffs and the interest rate are positively associated with import under-invoicing, while improvements in the current account balance and political stability reduce the extent of import over-invoicing. Capital account openness is found to be insignificant in determining trade misinvoicing
Horticulture policy for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
No full textPakistan’s rich soil and four seasons are favorable for horticulture. The country’s horticultural sector: (a) benefits from favourable and diversified agroecological conditions; (b) geographically and strategically well placed to enhance its exports to highly competitive but lucrative markets like Middle East, Afghanistan, Iran, China, Central Asian Republics, Europe and Far East; and (c) plays a major socioeconomic role in Pakistan, in particular for women’s economic empowerment. While Pakistan is a major producer of horticultural products, its tremendous export potential remains largely untapped. The sector’s structure, the characteristics and varieties of the Fruits and Vegetables (F&V) grown locally, and the way in which F&V are being cultivated, aggregated, and transported have a huge bearing on the sector’s trade performance and have a tremendous impact on its competitiveness. The production base is highly fragmented, with approximately 85% of the orchards having an area of less than 12.5 acres
Technology Application in the Asian Tourism Industry: Artificial Intelligence and Blockchain in Smart City Involvement.
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