9 research outputs found
Shifting from asset damage to well-being loss within flood risk management
Full text linkFloods can be a cause of poverty. Poverty itself magnifies the impact of floods as poor people are more vulnerable and less resilient. Traditional flood risk assessments (FRAs) focus mostly on asset damages. Yet, poor people own little assets and are often highly exposed to floods. Consequently, traditional FRAs often conclude that it is inefficient to protect the poor and are thus biased against flood risk reduction measures protecting them. The aim of this study is to evaluate FRRIs in a CBA based on the social welfare flood risk reduction benefits. A framework to assess the social welfare flood risk through a Monte Carlo approach is presented herein. A case study illustrates that it is not yet reliable to economically evaluate FRRIs based on the monetized social welfare benefits in CBAs. In addition, a targeted social protection scenario emphasizes the potentially high social welfare benefits that can be realized through risk transfer. Therefore, poverty reduction through risk transfer mechanisms should be considered as a holistic approach to foster socioeconomic growth as such risk transfer mechanisms build socioeconomic resilience in the face of natural disasters. It could have a considerable impact on the lives of people living in vulnerable areas
A micro-scale cost-benefit analysis of building-level flood risk adaptation measures in Los Angeles
Full text linkCost-benefit analysis (CBA) of flood risk adaptation strategies offers policymakers insight into economically optimal strategies for adapting to sea level rise. However, building-level adaptation measures such as floodproofing or building elevation are often evaluated at aggregated spatial scales, which may result in sub-optimal investment decisions. In this paper, we develop a flood risk model and combine it with a micro-scale CBA at the building level to obtain an optimal mix of adaptation measures per area. We apply this approach to Venice Beach in Los Angeles and Naples in Long Beach. We subsequently compare our results with the conventional, spatially aggregated area-based CBA approach. Our findings show that a mix of 35%–45% dry-floodproofing measures and 55%–65% building elevation measures is optimal. Elevation works best in areas with high inundation depths, while dry-floodproofing is preferable in areas with shallow inundation depths. The optimal mix of measures derived from our micro-scale approach results in an economic efficiency up to 85% higher than that yielded by the commonly applied spatially aggregated approach. We therefore recommend that economic evaluations of building-level adaptation measures are conducted at the smallest possible scale, or that CBAs are performed on disaggregated areas based on inundation depth
How the USA can benefit from risk-based premiums combined with flood protection
Full text linkFlood risk management in the USA is largely embedded in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Climate change and increasing exposure in flood plains pose a challenge to flood risk managers and make it vital to reduce risk in the future. The proposed reforms are steering the NFIP to risk-based premiums, but it is uncertain if the reforms will result in unaffordability and incentivize risk-reduction investments or how the NFIP is affected by large-scale adaptation efforts. Using an agent-based model approach for current and future scenarios, we demonstrate that risk-based premiums will yield a positive societal benefit (US26 billion). We suggest that transitioning the NFIP to risk-based premiums can only be secured by additional investments in large-scale flood protection infrastructure.</p
An assessment of best practices of extreme weather insurance and directions for a more resilient society
No full textExtreme weather resilience has been defined as being based on three pillars: resistance (the ability to lower impacts), recovery (the ability to bounce back), and adaptive capacity (the ability to learn and improve). These resilience pillars are important both before and after the occurrence of extreme weather events. Extreme weather insurance can influence these pillars of resilience depending on how particular insurance mechanisms are structured. We explore how the lessons learnt from the current best insurance practices can improve resilience to extreme weather events. We employ an extensive inventory of private property and agricultural crop insurance mechanisms to conduct a multi-criteria analysis of insurance market outcomes. We draw conclusions regarding the patterns in the best practice from six European countries to increase resilience. We suggest that requirements to buy a bundle extreme weather event insurance with general insurance packages are strengthened and supported with structures to financing losses through public-private partnerships. Moreover, support for low income households through income vouchers could be provided. Similarly, for the agricultural sector we propose moving towards comprehensive crop yield insurance linked to general agricultural subsidies. In both cases a nationally representative body can coordinate the various stakeholders into acting in concert
A micro-scale cost-benefit analysis of building-level flood risk adaptation measures in Los Angeles
No full textCost-benefit analysis (CBA) of flood risk adaptation strategies offers policymakers insight into economically optimal strategies for adapting to sea level rise. However, building-level adaptation measures such as floodproofing or building elevation are often evaluated at aggregated spatial scales, which may result in sub-optimal investment decisions. In this paper, we develop a flood risk model and combine it with a micro-scale CBA at the building level to obtain an optimal mix of adaptation measures per area. We apply this approach to Venice Beach in Los Angeles and Naples in Long Beach. We subsequently compare our results with the conventional, spatially aggregated area-based CBA approach. Our findings show that a mix of 35%–45% dry-floodproofing measures and 55%–65% building elevation measures is optimal. Elevation works best in areas with high inundation depths, while dry-floodproofing is preferable in areas with shallow inundation depths. The optimal mix of measures derived from our micro-scale approach results in an economic efficiency up to 85% higher than that yielded by the commonly applied spatially aggregated approach. We therefore recommend that economic evaluations of building-level adaptation measures are conducted at the smallest possible scale, or that CBAs are performed on disaggregated areas based on inundation depth
An economic evaluation of adaptation pathways in coastal mega cities: An illustration for Los Angeles
No full textSea level rise and uncertainty in its projections pose a major challenge to flood risk management and adaptation investments in coastal mega cities. This study presents a comparative economic evaluation method for flood adaptation measures, which couples a cost–benefit analysis with the concept of adaptation pathways. Our approach accounts for uncertainty in sea level rise projections by allowing for flexibility of adaptation strategies over time. Our method is illustrated for Los Angeles County which is vulnerable to flooding and sea level rise. Results for different sea level rise scenarios show that applying adaptation pathways can result in higher economic efficiency (up to 10%)than individual adaptation strategies, despite the loss of efficiency at the initial strategy. However, we identified ‘investment tipping points’, after which a transition could decrease the economic efficiencies of a pathway significantly. Overall, we recommend that studies evaluating adaptation strategies should integrate cost–benefit analysis frameworks with adaptation pathways since this allows for better informing decision makers about the robustness and economic desirability of their investment choices
Pathways to resilience: Adapting to sea level rise in Los Angeles
No full textLos Angeles (LA) County's coastal areas are highly valued for their natural benefits and their economic contributions to the region. While LA County already has a high level of exposure to flooding (e.g. people, ports, and harbors), climate change and sea level rise will increase flood risk; anticipating this risk requires adaptation planning to mitigate social, economic, and physical damage. This study provides an overview of the potential effects of sea level rise on coastal LA County and describes adaptation pathways and estimates associated costs in order to cope with sea level rise. An adaptation pathway in this study is defined as the collection of measures (e.g., beach nourishment, dune restoration, flood‐proofing buildings, and levees) required to lower flood risk. The aim of using different adaptation pathways is to enable a transition from one methodology to another over time. These pathways address uncertainty in future projections, allowing for flexibility among policies and potentially spreading the costs over time. Maintaining beaches, dunes, and their natural dynamics is the foundation of each of the three adaptation pathways, which address the importance of beaches for recreation, environmental value, and flood protection. In some scenarios, owing to high projections of sea level rise, additional technical engineering options such as levees and sluices may be needed to reduce flood risk. The research suggests three adaptation pathways, anticipating a +1 ft (0.3 m) to +7 ft (+2 m) sea level rise by year 2100. Total adaptation costs vary between 6.4 bn, depending on measures included in the adaptation pathway
Icelandic plus English: language differentiation and functional categories in a successively bilingual child
Full text linkThis thesis investigates the formal and functional properties of the linguistic knowledge of a young bilingual child 'Katla' who successively acquires Icelandic (L1, from birth) and English (L2, from age 1:3). I present new longitudinal natural speech data which I collected in both Icelandic and English from Katla at regular intervals. Audio-recordings were made roughly three times per month at age 1 ;0-4;7 and transcribed in adapted CHILDES/CHAT format. Using a generative framework, I analyse Katla's data qualitatively and quantitatively, focusing on her morphology and syntax during the period 1;6-3;6: determiners and word order in nominals, copula constructions, progressive constructions, imperatives, negation, verb placement, verb inflections, auxiliaries, and periphrastic do. Katla's development is compared with monolingual English-speaking and Icelandic-speaking children, and, where applicable, with other bilinguals. Particular attention is paid to early grammar differentiation and cross- language influence, and to the relationship between child language and input (construction types and frequencies). The empirical results are evaluated in the light of current theories of language acquisition and generative approaches to syntax. Katla's first multi-word combinations (1;6) show productive use of functional morphology (determiners, copulas). Early on, there is evidence of movement into the DP, IP and CP domains, indicating continuity of these functional categories. Moreover, translational equivalents, language-specific functional morphemes and language-specific word orders in Katla's Icelandic and English bear evidence of early language differentiation in successive child bilingualism. The longitudinal development of morpho-syntax largely progresses along separate lines for Katla's two languages; there is no cross- language influence as regards head parameter and movement parameter settings. Some construction transfer occurs where L1 and L2 linear orders are similar. Ensuing implications for transfer and (de)learnability are addressed
