102,569 research outputs found

    Non-Bayesian decision theory ante litteram: the case of G. L. S. Shackle

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    This paper deals with the intellectual environment in which George L. S. Shackle’s theory of decision making was formulated and first discussed. Shackle’s approach had a great impact on decision theory in late 1940s and early 1950s being the single formalised attempt to discard the probability framework in the description of behaviour under uncertainty - a goal shared by Knight and Keynes. Against Shackle, Arrow defended the use of probability theory in decision making, by denying that the Knightian distinction between risk and uncertainty had any behavioural significance, and paving the way to Savage’s Foundations of Statistics as the new mainstream reference. Through an assessment of the reception of Shackle’s theory the paper presents the way a number of theoretical economists, psychologists, and mathematicians were interested in the viability of a formally structured alternative to theories of behaviour using probability statements to describe uncertainty. The paper aim to show that the lively but concentrated discussion on alternative decisional criteria Shackle was part of is crucial to understand the multifarious developments observed in modern decision theory in the last twenty years or so. Indeed, as discussed in a twin paper by Basili and Zappia, Shackle’s theory was a much more viable alternative to subjective expected utility than both its contemporary critics and modern decision theorists have recognised

    A concise and stereoselective synthesis of threo-g-hydroxy-L-b-lysine lactone

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    A stereoselective synthesis of threo-γ-hydroxy-β-l-lysine lactone is reported. The threo-amino alcohol functionality is introduced by iodine-mediated cyclocarbamation of the electron poor allylamine 6. The D-phenylalanine was used as starting material as synthetic equivalent to D-aspartic acid

    iodolactonization of 3-amino 4-pentenoic acid: a stereoselective synthesis of syn-g-hydroxy b-amino acids

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    The reaction of (S)-3-N-Cbz-4-pentenoic acid with iodine in acetonitrile in the presence of AgOTf gave the corresponding cis-iodo-lactone in excellent yield and in a highly diastereo-selective manner. The substitutions of the iodine by different Grignard reagents in the presence of CuI and the subsequent conversions into the functionalized syn-g-hydroxy-b-amino acids have been investigated. By the above reaction sequence, (3S,4S)-3-amino-4-hydroxy-5-cyclohexyl pentanoic acid was synthesized with high enantioselectivity

    Non-Bayesian decision theory ahead of its time: the case of G. L. S. Shackle

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    This article deals with the reception of George L. S. Shackle’s volume Expectation in Economics, introducing a unique attempt to discard the probability framework in the investigation of behaviour under uncertainty. Through a fresh reading of the textual evidence, including correspondence held at Cambridge University Library, the article assesses why decision theorists’ interest in Shackle’s theory, substantial during the 1950s, faded away in the early 1960s. The article argues that, apart from Shackle’s refusal to comprehend that his critics were under the influence of a new subjective probability perspective, a major explanation of the dismissal of his work stays in Shackle’s stance not to establish a collaborative link with those critics who showed a positive attitude towards his theory. The article shows, though, that the discussion between Shackle and his critics hinged on a number of topics that are still crucial to the current developments of decision theory
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