44 research outputs found
Growth, yield and quality response of Eggplant (Solanum melongena L.) to blended NPSB fertilizer rates and intra-row spacing in Boloso Bombe district, Wolaita zone, South Ethiopia
No full textEggplant is the most important fruit vegetable crop in many countries, including Ethiopia. In spite of this, its production is hindered by low nutrient availability in soil and suboptimal intra-row spacing. In order to address these issues, a field investigation took place in the Wolaita zone during 2022/23 growing season to evaluate the effects of various concentrations of blended NPSB fertilizer and intra-row spacing on the growth, yield, and quality of eggplants. Five various blended NPSB fertilizer rates (0, 50, 100, 150, and 200 kg ha−1) and three intra-row spacing distances (30, 40, and 50 cm) were used in the investigation, which was designed as a randomized complete block with three replicates. Based on an analysis of variance, it was discovered that the main effects of NPSB fertilizer rates and intra-row spacing significantly (p < 0.01) affected many of parameters, including dry matter content, total soluble solids, fruit number, fruit length, and days to 50 % flowering. Additionally, the interaction effect between NPSB fertilizer and intra-row spacing significantly (p < 0.05) impacted the number of days to first fruit harvest, plant height, leaf area, branch number, leaf number, fruit diameter, fresh fruit yield, marketable fresh fruit yield, unmarketable fresh fruit yield, and total fresh fruit yield. According to the current investigation, the highest marketable fresh fruit yield (121.04 t ha−1) was obtained by 150 kg ha−1 NPSB with 40 cm intra-row spacing. These findings suggest that 150 kg ha−1 of blended NPSB fertilizer with 40 cm distance between plant spacing is optimal for eggplant cultivation in the study area and analogous agro-ecological settings. This optimized approach can effectively support eggplant growers in maximizing both yield and quality outcomes
Small-scale irrigation (SSI) farming as a climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practice and its influence on livelihood improvement in Offa District, Southern Ethiopia
No full textSmall-scale irrigated farming has been offered as a climate-smart agriculture (CSA) technology to boost production and diversify livelihood scenarios as an option to mitigate climate change. This study was to analyse factors that influence smallholder farmers' decisions to adopt small-scale irrigation (SSI) as CSA and to assess the influence of adoption on livelihood improvement. To obtain relevant data, the study employed a mixed research methodology that combines an explanatory research design with a qualitative approach. A total of 134 respondents were selected for the study's sample size. A mixed research methodology was used in this study to acquire pertinent data, which incorporated an explanatory research design and a qualitative approach. In the study area, 37.3% participated in small-scale irrigation, while 62.7% did not. The descriptive statistics result showed that, household socio-demographic factors; household socio-economic factors, and household institutional factors had significantly and statistically affect the adoption SSI. The Logit regression model results revealed that households; who owned more land holding size, access to credit services, get agricultural extension service, who near to the district market, who have middle age of HH, who Sex of HHH, who nearest farm sight, have TLU, have farming experience, have access to irrigation, and have good health status of the HHH were more likely to benefit from the use of small scale irrigation. The average annual gross income earned by participant and non-participant households from various crops in the three schemes was 370,190 and 83,983 ETB, respectively. As a result, participation in small-scale irrigation has a positive effect on the majority of household livelihood diversification, and expanding irrigation schemes improves rural farm households' livelihoods. As a result, policymakers and other stakeholders should prioritize small-scale irrigation technologies as CSA to improve rural household livelihoods
Roles of Foliar Fertilization on Growth, Yield and Quality of Tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) Cultivars (Review)
No full textTomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) is one of the most important vegetable crops, and it is a source of daily diet and cash crop in Ethiopia. However, its production is affected by nutrient application methods of which foliar fertilization is a popular method. The objective of this review paper is to synthesize literatures on the effects of foliar fertilization on growth, yield and quality of tomato cultivars. Both macro and micronutrient concentrations were evaluated. The articles addressing that foliar fertilization effectively increased growth, yield and quality of tomato cultivars. Foliar fertilization to be effective and maximize crop yield and nutrient uptake, the "right type," "right rate," "right time “and” right place" are essential. The right nutrient selection satisfies crop requirements, and the optimal rate of application avoids stunted development. Applications should be timed for optimal absorption conditions to maximize efficacy and avoid waste by focusing on absorbent plant sections. These elements work together to promote sustainable and effective crop management. Over all, the results showed that with 10,000 ppm of urea fertilization, the Marglobe tomato cultivar achieved a plant height of 155.63 cm, fruit weight of 151 g, and a yield of 63.69 t/ha. Additionally, the findings indicated 9.05 ± 0.32% total soluble solids (TSS) and a chlorophyll content of 51.6 ± 1.31 SPAD values with 100 ppm of ZnO nanoparticles. In conclusion, foliar fertilization of nutrients increased growth, yield and quality of tomato cultivars however, the result vary from cultivar to cultivar. The foliar fertilization depends on appropriate time, weather condition, genotypes of tomato, leaf area index, amount of foliar fertilization, type of nutrient, and stage of crop
Practices of ethnoveterinary medicine and ethnobotanical knowledge of plants used to treat livestock diseases, Wolaita zone, southern Ethiopia
No full textAbstractTraditional medical practices have been employed for millennia to keep animal health and the knowledge is passed down orally from generation to generation. It is an integral part of the culture of rural tribal peoples living in Ethiopia. Therefore, to document this indigenous ethnoveterinary practice in the Wolaita Zone of south Ethiopia, a field survey was carried out. Ninety different healers were specifically chosen and questioned based on their proficiency in treating animals with conventional medicine. The ethnobotanical data were examined and compiled using descriptive statistics. It was found that there are 28 different plant families represented by 54 plants that provide therapeutic benefits against a total of 39 livestock illnesses. The majority of plant parts used (49%) in the study sites were leaves and herbs (9). Prepared remedies were administered through nasal, oral, topical/dermal, and ocular routes. Blackleg, bloat, and endoparasites had the highest ICF values, and Withania somnifera was the most potent remedy for treating blackleg. Zingiber officinale had the highest level value (FL = 94%) for treating bloat. Croton macrostachyus was reported to be a well-known plant in the sizable community and even used at the family level for different purposes in addition to their medical value. Stephania abyssinica had the highest mean cultural importance, followed by Pentas shemperina L. The main hazards to medicinal plants in the study district were expansion of agriculture, drought, and construction. Therefore, therapeutic plant conservation is a responsibility of local communities and other responsible organizations
Determinants of food insecurity and coping mechanisms in Offa district, Southern Ethiopia
No full textFood is an essential requirement for human survival, growth, and health. Despite the fact that the right to be free from hunger is the most fundamental human right that can be achieved, a substantial number of people worldwide experience food insecurity. This study examined the factors that influence household food insecurity and the coping mechanisms adopted by households during food crises in the Offa district, southern Ethiopia. This study included 144 households from three kebeles, and the interview schedule method was used to collect data from the respondents. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the characteristics of households and coping techniques used during food scarcity. Statistical methods, such as the chi-square test and t-test, were used to compare food-secure and food-insecure sampling households in relation to the explanatory variables. The Food Consumption Score (FCS) method was used to determine the level of household caloric availability. Determinants of food insecurity were identified using a binary logit model. The empirical model consisted of 11 explanatory variables. Off-farm income, educational level of the family head, access to credit, livestock ownership, dependence ratio, cultivated farm size, extension services, and technology adoption were found to be statistically significant in determining food insecurity. Coping strategies used by households, such as limiting food intake, borrowing money, rationing money, and skipping meals have been discovered. Based on these findings, it is suggested that all pertinent bodies prioritize improving rural farmers' incomes, promoting extension services, encouraging access to basic education, promoting off-farm and non-farm employment opportunities, and introducing livestock development packages to improve food security for rural households
Status of Native Woody Species Diversity and Soil Characteristics in an Exclosure and in Plantations of<i>Eucalyptus globulus</i>and<i>Cupressus lusitanica</i>in Northern Ethiopia
No full textExclusion of grazing animals and tree plantations are 2 methods that have been used for restoration of degraded lands in tropical semiarid areas. These 2 options can foster secondary forest succession by improving soil conditions, attracting seed-dispersal agents, and modifying microclimate for understory growth. We compared native woody plant diversity and soil chemical and physical attributes under exclosure and on Eucalyptus globulus (EGP) and Cupressus lusitanica (CLP) plantations. Vegetation data were collected by an inventory of stands with circular plots of 5.64 m radius, and soil samples were collected from the 4 corners and center of 20 × 20 m plots. As a result, 15 native woody plant species belonging to 13 families were recorded. Importance value index (IVI), Shannon-Wiener, Simpson's diversity, and species richness were higher in the exclosure, followed by EGP and CLP. Contents of soil organic carbon and total nitrogen showed significance difference and were highest in the exclosure, followed by CLP, EGP, and grazing land. Although the difference was not significant, an increasing trend was observed for cation exchange capacity and K+. Bulk density was highest on the grazing land, followed by EGP, CLP, and exclosure. Our results suggest that degraded land reclamation can be achieved with plantation of rapidly growing tree species as well as exclosure. However, native woody species diversity and improved soil attributes are better achieved with exclosure. Exclosures can be established interspersed strategically with single- or mixed-species plantations to facilitate restoration of native vegetation. However, it is important to conduct further research on the comparative advantage of enrichment planting of exclosures with preferred tree species or exclosures interspersed within blocks of plantationsponsorship: The authors would like to thank the Amhara Region Agricultural Research Institute (ARARI), Bahir Dar, Ethiopia, for logistic support. Financial support for the first author from the Commission for Development Studies (KEF) at the Austrian Agency for International Cooperation in Education and Research, Vienna, Austria, and the International Foundation for Science (IFS) Sweden, Stockholm, is gratefully acknowledged. (Commission for Development Studies (KEF) at the Austrian Agency for International Cooperation in Education and Research, Vienna, Austria, International Foundation for Science (IFS) Sweden, Stockholm)status: Publishe
Systematic design of a learning environment for domain-specific and domain-general critical thinking skills
No full text© 2015, The Author(s). Identifying effective instructional approaches that stimulate students’ critical thinking (CT) has been the focus of a large body of empirical research. However, there is little agreement on the instructional principles and procedures that are theoretically sound and empirically valid to developing both domain-specific and domain-general CT skills. The purpose of this study was to examine the effectiveness of systematically designed subject matter instruction in stimulating the development of domain-specific and domain-general CT skills, and to investigate the relationship between the two. The study employed a pretest–posttest quasi-experimental design with two conditions: 45 students participated in an experimental condition and 44 students in a control condition. A learning environment, in the context of a freshman physics course, was designed according to the First Principles of Instruction model. The experimental condition followed the designed learning environment, while the control condition followed regular subject matter instruction that was not designed according to the First Principles of Instruction model. The experimental condition scored significantly higher than the control condition on a domain-specific CT test. The results also showed that better performance on a domain-specific CT test explained a significant proportion of the variance on a domain-general CT test. However, the experimental learning environment did not result in a significantly greater pretest–posttest improvement in the acquisition of domain-general CT skills compared to the control learning environment. Instructional design principles that may contribute to the present understanding of the integration of CT skills within the regular subject matter instruction are discussed.status: Publishe
Chemical Looping Combustion of biomass with negative Co2 emissions
No full textxxi, 157 Pags.-- 76 Figuras. 17 Tablas.-- Tesis doctoral llevada a cabo para conseguir el grado de doctor en la Universidad de Zaragoza, 2020-02-13.-- Calificación Sobresaliente "cum laude".[EN] CO2 emissions to the atmosphere became an important environmental
problem because of the effect on the global warming and consequently, the climate
change. The climate change challenge demands a commitment of combined
strategies between global institutions, governments and citizens. To reach the
objectives set in the Paris Agreement (2015), greenhouse gas emissions need to be
reduced. No technology is currently able to achieve the necessary reductions in
greenhouse gas emissions on its own. Biomass represents an interesting alternative
fuel for heat and power production as a carbon dioxide-neutral fuel. Moreover, if the
CO2 generated during biomass combustion process is captured then negative-CO2
emissions would be reached and these are named bioenergy with Carbon Capture and
Storage (BECCS) technologies.
Chemical Looping Combustion (CLC) came up as one of the most promising
CO2 capture technologies thanks to the low energy penalty of the CO2 separation and
therefore, low-cost. CLC technologies are based in two interconnected fluidized bed
reactors without gas mixing. The combustion takes place in the fuel reactor where
the oxygen is supplied by a solid oxygen carrier, normally metal oxides. After being
reduced, the oxygen carrier goes to the air reactor without gas mixing between
reactors where it is oxidized again in air, and it is able for a new redox cycle starts.
The main objective of this thesis is to evaluate the biomass combustion with
CLC technologies (bioCLC). The research plan covers studies different at different
scales, starting at lab scale, through a 1 kWth pilot plant, to the continuous operation
in a 20 kWth plant to demonstrate the viability and optimizing the operation range for
different low-cost oxygen carriers and different types of biomass residues.
Iron based ores as well as manganese ores has been pointed as promising
oxygen carriers because of their reactivity and low cost. Under In Situ Gasification
Chemical Looping Combustion (iG-CLC) mode, the performance of the process was
studied focusing on the effect of different important operating variables in a 1 kWth
CLC unit. Values about 100% of carbon capture efficiency with the three types of
biomass were obtained using ores as oxygen carrier and the total oxygen demand was
reduced because of the different reactivity of each oxygen carrier and the operating
conditions optimization. Also a synthetic iron-manganese mixed able to release
molecular oxygen during the CLC process was used. The effect of the several
operating variables was also studied finding a high dependency on the air excess and
the temperature, both in the air reactor, on the CO2 capture efficiency and the total
oxygen demand. About 100% of CO2 capture efficiency achieving values of total
oxygen demand about 5%. The use of a mixed Cu-Mn oxide was also studied as a
Chemical Looping with Oxygen Uncoupling (CLOU) oxygen carrier. High CO2
capture efficiencies were obtained and close to null total oxygen demand was
achieved.
The effect of the operating conditions on the performance of CLC was
evaluated in a 20 kWth CLC unit using an iron ore as oxygen carrier. A Spanish
biomass residue was tested achieving values close to 100% and total oxygen demands
between 15-20% despite the low temperature used, supporting the consideration of
the CLC process with biomass (bioCLC) as a promising bioenergy with Carbon
Capture (BECCS) technology.
One of the aspects to be considered in the combustion of biomass is the
formation of NOx and the possible existence of tar in the gaseous product stream.
This work compares the results obtained with two different chemical looping
combustion modes, iG-CLC and CLOU.
All these results show the feasibility of the integration of solid biofuels with
CLC technologies achieving a negative emission technology able to produce an
energy gain through a BECCS technology.[ES] Las emisiones de CO2 a la atmósfera se han convertido en un importante
problema ambiental debido al calentamiento global y el consecuente cambio
climático. El reto del cambio climático hace necesaria la aplicación de estrategias
combinadas entre instituciones, gobiernos y ciudadanos. Para alcanzar los objetivos
fijados en el Acuerdo de París (2015) es necesario reducir las emisiones de gases de
efecto invernadero y actualmente ninguna tecnología es capaz de alcanzar los
objetivos de reducción por si sola. La biomasa representa una interesante alternativa
como combustible con emisiones neutras de CO2. Así mismo, si el CO2 generado
durante la combustión de biomasa es capturado para su almacenamiento, se pueden
alcanzar emisiones negativas de CO2 a través de la bioenergía con captura y
almacenamiento de CO2. La combustión mediante transportadores de oxígeno
destaca como una de las tecnologías de captura de CO2 más prometedoras gracias a
la baja penalización energética debida a la separación del CO2, y su consecuente bajo
coste. La combustión mediante transportadores sólidos de oxígeno se basa en la
utilización de reactores de lecho fluidizado. La combustión tiene lugar en el reactor
de reducción, donde el transportador sólido de oxígeno, normalmente un óxido
metálico, se reduce. Después de reducirse, el transportador de oxígeno llega al reactor
de oxidación, donde se vuelve a oxidar en aire para comenzar un nuevo ciclo redox.
El principal objetivo de esta tesis es evaluar el potencial de las tecnologías de
combustión mediante transportadores sólidos de oxígeno con biomasa. El plan de
investigación incluye estudios a diferentes escalas, comenzando a nivel de
laboratorio, continuando con planta piloto de 1 kWt y finalizando con la operación
en continuo de una planta de 20 kWt para demostrar la viabilidad y optimizar los
rangos de operación para el uso de distintos transportadores de oxígeno.
Algunos minerales basados en hierro, así como otros basados en manganeso,
han sido seleccionados por su alta reactividad y bajo coste. En la planta 1 kWt se
viii
estudió el efecto de distintas variables de operación sobre el funcionamiento del
proceso bajo In Situ Gasification Chemical Looping Combustion (iG-CLC). Se
alcanzaron valores en torno al 100% de eficacia de captura de CO2 con los tres tipos
de biomasa estudiados usando minerales como transportadores de oxígeno, y las
demandas totales de oxígeno se redujeron mediante la sustitución del transportador
de oxígeno por otros más reactivos, así como por la optimización de diferentes
variables de operación. También se ha probado un óxido sintético mixto basado en
hierro y manganeso con capacidad de liberar oxígeno molecular durante el proceso
de combustión. En este caso se estudió también el efecto de distintas variables de
operación sobre la eficacia de captura de CO2 y la demanda total de oxígeno,
encontrando una gran dependencia tanto de la temperatura como del exceso de aire,
ambos en el reactor de oxidación. Se alcanzaron valores en torno al 100% de eficacia
de captura de CO2 con demandas totales de oxígeno alrededor del 5%. El uso de un
óxido mixto basado en cobre y manganeso ha sido estudiado también bajo el proceso
conocido como Chemical Looping with Oxygen Uncoupling (CLOU). En este caso
se alcanzaron altos valores de eficacia de captura de CO2 y demandas totales de
oxígeno próximas a cero. En la planta de 20 kWt, se estudió el efecto de diferentes
variables de operación utilizando un mineral de hierro como transportador de
oxígeno. En esta planta se alcanzaron valores de demanda próximas al 100% y
demandas totales de oxígeno en torno al 15-20% pese a las bajas temperaturas usadas.
Otros de los aspectos a ser considerados en la combustión de biomasa es la
formación de NOx y la posible presencia de alquitranes en la corriente gaseosa de
salida. En este trabajo se comparan los resultados obtenidos mediante dos modos de
operación, iG-CLC y CLOU.
Todos estos resultados muestran las posibilidades de integración de
biocombustibles sólidos con las tecnologías de combustión mediante transportadores
de oxígeno consiguiendo una tecnología de emisiones negativas de CO2, capaz de
producir un beneficio energético.The author thanks the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness
(MINECO) for the funding received from the projects ENE2014-56857-R and
ENE2017-89473-R AEI/FEDER UE for the financial support. A. Pérez-Astray
thanks MINECO for the BES-2015-074651 pre-doctoral fellowship co-financed by
the European Social Fund.Peer reviewe
Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
No full textBackground Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.Methods The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systetns, sample registration systetns, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.Findings Globally, 18.7% (95% uncertainty interval 18.4-19.0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58.8% (58.2-59.3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48.1 years (46.5-49.6) to 70.5 years (70.1-70.8) for men and from 52.9 years (51.7-54.0) to 75.6 years (75.3-75.9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49.1 years (46.5-51.7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87.6 years (86.9-88.1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216.0 deaths (196.3-238.1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38.9 deaths (35.6-42.83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5.4 million (5.2-5.6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult tnales, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development.Interpretation This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, wotnen, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. Copyright C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
No full textBackground Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health -related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.Methods We measured progress on 41 health-related S DG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile and 100 as the 97.5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.Findings The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59.4 (IQR 35.4-67.3), ranging from a low of 11.6 (95% uncertainty interval 9.6-14.0) to a high of 84.9 (83.1-86.7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attaimnent by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.Interpretation The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health -related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health -related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence -related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains curative interventions in the case of NCDs towards multisectoral, prevention -oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the S DGs. What is clear is that our actions or inaction today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
