303 research outputs found
"As The Implosion Begins . . .? A Rejoinder to Goldman Sachs's J. Hatzius Strategic Analysis"
No full textA Rejoinder to Goldman Sach's J. Hatzius' "The Un-Godley Private Sector Deficit" in US Economic Analyst (27 July).
"Interim Report: Notes on the U.S. Trade and Balance of Payments Deficits"
No full textIf the United States's balance of trade does not improve, the country could eventually find itself in a "debt trap," the author says. The aim of this paper, the second in a series offering Godley's strategic analysis, is to display what seems reasonably likely to happen if world output recovers but otherwise past trends, policies, and relationships continue. The potential usefulness of the exercise is to warn policymakers of dangers that may exist and to help them think out what policy instruments are, or should be made, available to deal with worst cases, should they arise.
A foxy hedgehog: Wynne Godley and macroeconomic modelling
No full textWynne Godley has made enormous contributions to macroeconomic modelling. They are reviewed here in connection with his recent book with Marc Lavoie, Monetary Economics: An Integrated Approach to Credit, Money, Income, Production, and Wealth. Copyright The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Cambridge Political Economy Society. All rights reserved., Oxford University Press.
"Kick-Start Strategy Fails to Fire Sputtering U.S. Economic Motor"
No full textThere is a strategic need, if a "growth recession" is to be avoided, for a new motor to drive the economy, particularly if there is a further decline in private expenditure relative to income that could generate a further hole in aggregate demand.
"The United States and Her Creditors: Can the Symbiosis Last?"
No full textThe main arguments in this paper can be simply stated: 1) If output in the US grows fast enough to keep unemployment constant between now and 2010 and if there is no further depreciation in the dollar, the deficit in the balance of trade is likely to get worse, perhaps reaching 7.5 per cent by the end of the decade. 2) If the trade deficit does not improve, let alone if it gets worse, there will be a large further deterioration in the US's net foreign asset position so that, with interest rates rising, net income payments from abroad will at last turn negative and the deficit in the current account as a whole could reach at least 8.5 per cent of GDP. . . .
Wynne Godley [electronic resource] : A Biography /
No full textThis timely biography of the economist Wynne Godley (1926-2010) charts his long and often crisis-blown route to a new way of understanding whole economies. It shows how early frustrations as a policy-maker enabled him to glimpse the cliff-edges other macro-modellers missed, and re-arm ‘Keynesian’ theory against the orthodoxy that had tried to absorb it. Godley gained notoriety for his economic commentaries - foreseeing the malaise of the 1970s, the Reagan-Thatcher slump, the unsustainable 1980s and 1990s booms, and the crises in the Eurozone and world economies after 2008. This foresight arose from a series of advances in his understanding of national accounting, price-setting, the role of modern finance, and the use of economic data, especially to grasp the interlinkage of stocks and flows. This biography also gives due attention to Godley's life outside academic economics – including his chaotic childhood, truncated career as a professional oboist, equally brief stints as a sculptor’s model and economist in industry, and a longer spell as as a Treasury adviser with a mystery gift for forecasting. This first full-length biography traces Wynne Godley’s long career from professional musician to public servant, policymaker, tormentor of conventional macroeconomics and creator of a workable alternative – all after escaping a childhood of decaying mansions and draconian schools, and rescuing his private world from the legacy of two Freuds. Drawing on Godley’s published and unpublished work and extensive interviews with those who knew him, the author explores Godley's improbable life and explains the lasting significance of his work.1. Life Before Economics 1926-1955 -- 2. Under Treasury Rules 1956-64 -- 3. Short-term Forecasting -- 4. Public Expenditure -- 5. Planning, Tax Reform and Structural Change -- 6. Gatecrashing the Cambridge Tradition -- 7. Public Expenditure Revisited -- 8. Sector Balances and ‘New Cambridge’ -- 9. Balance-of-Payments, Deindustrialisation and Protection -- 10. Spectating on Thatcher and Major -- 11. “Macroeconomics” -- 12. The SSRC Showdown -- 13. Wilderness and Wisdom -- 14. Cassandra Across the Atlantic -- 15. The Long Road to Redemption -- 16. Monetary Economics and After -- 17. The True Self.This timely biography of the economist Wynne Godley (1926-2010) charts his long and often crisis-blown route to a new way of understanding whole economies. It shows how early frustrations as a policy-maker enabled him to glimpse the cliff-edges other macro-modellers missed, and re-arm ‘Keynesian’ theory against the orthodoxy that had tried to absorb it. Godley gained notoriety for his economic commentaries - foreseeing the malaise of the 1970s, the Reagan-Thatcher slump, the unsustainable 1980s and 1990s booms, and the crises in the Eurozone and world economies after 2008. This foresight arose from a series of advances in his understanding of national accounting, price-setting, the role of modern finance, and the use of economic data, especially to grasp the interlinkage of stocks and flows. This biography also gives due attention to Godley's life outside academic economics – including his chaotic childhood, truncated career as a professional oboist, equally brief stints as a sculptor’s model and economist in industry, and a longer spell as as a Treasury adviser with a mystery gift for forecasting. This first full-length biography traces Wynne Godley’s long career from professional musician to public servant, policymaker, tormentor of conventional macroeconomics and creator of a workable alternative – all after escaping a childhood of decaying mansions and draconian schools, and rescuing his private world from the legacy of two Freuds. Drawing on Godley’s published and unpublished work and extensive interviews with those who knew him, the author explores Godley's improbable life and explains the lasting significance of his work
El enfoque macroeconómico consistente de Wynne Godley. Una exposición.
No full textOn May 13, 2010 died Wynne Godley, heterodox economist who became famous for his controversial macroeconomic forecast on the British economy in the years 70-90, for his critique of monetarist theory and policies adopted by the governments of Margaret Thatcher and, above all, for being one of the few economist who predicted the current recession. This article, written “In memoriam” of Godley, explains the methodology of the stock-flow consistent models, noting similarities and differences with other models and its superiority with respect the neoclassical ones commonly used.El 13 de mayo de 2010, a la edad de 83 años, murió Wynne Godley, economista heterodoxo que se hizo famoso por sus polémicas previsiones macroeconómicas sobre la economía británica en los años 70-90, por su acerada crítica a la teoría monetarista y a las políticas de igual signo adoptadas por los gobiernos de Margaret Thatcher y, sobre todo, por ser uno de los pocos economistas que predijo la actual recesión. El presente artículo, escrito In memoriam de Godley, explica la metodología de los modelos macroeconómicos consistentes que interrelacionan variables flujo y fondo, señalando semejanzas y diferencias con otros modelos y su superioridad respecto a los neoclásicos habitualmente empleados
A critical imbalance in US trade: The US balance of payments, international indebtedness, and economic policy
No full textAccording to Wynne Godley, the significance of the deficit in the United States' balance of payments has been underestimated in both public policy and academic discussions, despite the fact that American markets are increasingly dominated by foreign manufacturers. Godley analyzes the problem posed by the current balance of payments deficit. Breaking down the current account into its component parts, he traces the cause of the deficit. He refutes the arguments of other economists that the balance of payments deficit is self-correcting, unimportant, or the result of other domestic forces (namely, too low a level of national saving), and outlines policy approaches to solving the problem. Godley notes that although the strategic problems posed are specific to this country and the United States may have to take unilateral action to solve them, the problems have arisen because there is no significant international regulation of the system as a whole. Inherent flaws have developed in the system of international production, trade, and payments as that system has expanded and become increasingly deregulated. All the difficulties that exist, or that are foreshadowed in this brief, would be best resolved by energetic international cooperation, of which there is at present little sign
"Seven Unsustainable Processes: Medium-Term Prospects and Policies for the United States and the World"
No full textThe purpose of the paper is not to make short-term predictions about the life expectancy of the current economic expansion in the United States, but to determine if the present stance of fiscal and trade policy is appropriate looking to the medium turn. The expansion has been generated by economic processes that are unsustainable--processes in private saving, private borrowing, and asset prices that have fueled the growth of demand against a negative impetus both from fiscal policy and from net export demand. Given unchanged fiscal policy and the consensus forecast for growth in the rest of the world, continued expansion requires that private expenditure continue to expand relative to income on a record and growing scale, and it seems impossible that this source of growth can be forthcoming indefinitely, although it may well continue into next year. When private demand falters, it will be necessary to bring about a substantial relaxation of fiscal policy and to ensure that there is a structural improvement in the United States's balance of payments.
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