1,315 research outputs found
Modelling economies in transition: An introduction
No full textThis paper considers the implications of structural breaks, such as have occurred in many transition economies, for econometric modelling based on the multivariate cointegration paradigm. It outlines recent developments on the identification of linear cointegrated systems, discusses some practical problems, and presents an extension to non-linear systems. This is followed by a discussion of the impact of structural breaks on the identification and estimation of such systems. Finally, it relates these issues to the other papers in this volume
Exogeneity and causality in non-stationary economic processes
No full textThe full-text of this book chapter is not available in ORA at this time. Citation: Hendry, D. F. (2004). Exogeneity and causality in non-stationary economic processes. In: Welfe, A. (ed.), New directions in macromodelling, Oxford: Elsevier, pp. 21-48
Modelling in Transition 2011
No full textTom pokonferencyjny, na który składają się materiały z dwu międzynarodowych konferencji (XXXVIII International Conference MACROMODELS’ 2011 i 16th AMFET Conference on Modelling Economies in Transition, 30 listopada – 3 grudnia 2011, Poznań). Publikacja zawiera 5 artykułów z bibliografiami i 19 abstraktów prezentujących tematykę wystąpień konferencyjnych. Dwudzielny układ podkreślają dwa wprowadzenia, orientujące w zakresie podjętej przez badaczy tematyki
Political directives
No full textTitle: Wskazania polityczne (Political directives) Originally published: Ognisko: książka zbiorowa wydana dla uczczenia 25 letniej pracy T. T. Jeża, Warsaw, K. Kowalewski, 1882 Language: PolishThe excerpts used are from Janina Kulczycka-Saloni, Pozytywizm, (Warsaw: PZWS, 1971), pp. 235–240. About the author Aleksander Świętochowski [1849, Stoczek (in Podlachia, present-day east Poland) – 1938, Gołotczyzna (central Poland)]: politician and writer. Aleksander Świetochowski, like many other adhe..
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No full textDemographic pressure, excess labour supply and public-private sector employment in Egypt - Modelling labour supply to analyse the response of unemployment, public finances and welfare
Full text linkThe demographic structure of Egypt has the form of a pyramid, indicating that labour supply will grow at a relatively high rate for many years to come. Unless emigration flows will rise, Egypt needs to create jobs at a much higher pace than most other countries around the globe to absorb the new entrants at the domestic labour market. Adding to this is the currently high share of 30-40% of the Egyptian employees working in the rather inefficient public sector. In order to quantify future developments at the labour market, this paper presents a labour supply model to analyze the impact of the ongoing demographic supply shocks on unemployment, public finances and welfare in Egypt. The findings indicate that the demographic labour supply will increase unemployment in the short term as the Egyptian labour market will not be able to absorb the demographic labour supply, unless the Egyptian economy grows steadily at least at 5% for many years in a row. In the long term, the employment dividend can be reaped by productivity growth increases if the labour market starts functioning. The findings also point out that, for growth to accelerate rapidly, job creation should occur in the private and not in the public sector. The large public sector has been driving up government expenditures disproportionably, not only because of the existence of the high number of people employed in the public sector but also because of excessive public wage increases.Demographics, labour supply, employment, greening, public sector employment, public finance
Interpreting Wage Bargaining Norms
Full text linkFrom the mid-1990s onwards, Swedish wage bargaining has been characterised by informal co-ordination of the wage claims of big unions and bargaining cartels. In particular, it has been understood that the manufacturing sector should lead by first agreeing on a pay increase, whereafter the service sector and public sector unions choose a similar increase. We analyse his setup with two possible theoretical interpretations: (i) the manufacturing sector as a tackelberg leader and (ii) a normative role for the manufacturing sector’s pay increase, upported either by unmodelled social pressure or a modeled loss aversion (envy) of the heltered sector unions. The conclusion of the analysis is that the normative or leading role of one sector – in the Swedish case the manufacturing sector – can potentially bring big benefits for employment and output. Generalising an idea suggested by Lars Calmfors and Anna Larsson, our analysis also generates a rudimentary theory of why the wage increase norm sometimes binds and sometimes not. A comparison of the model predictions and the observed outcomes of the last five wage bargaining rounds in Sweden suggests that the model is generally consistent with the empirical observations: wage moderation and norm observance are stronger when the manufacturing industry’s initial relative wage is low.wage bargaining; bargaining co-ordination
The Role of High-Tech Capital Formation for Swedish Productivity Growth
Full text linkWhile using new data and standard growth-accounting techniques, this paper takes a closer look at the Swedish productivity revival in the second half of the 1990s. In particular, I find large total factor productivity growth in high-tech producing sectors and capital deepening associated with high-tech equipment elsewhere. In addition, for high-tech producers, high-tech capital deepening has as a rule contributed negatively to labor productivity growth - a result above all driven by large increases in hours worked in this sector. I also find that in the business sector, the contribution from high-tech capital deepening to labor productivity growth increased from about 1 percent 1994 to 9 percent 1999.
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