575 research outputs found
Combining forecasts : forty years later
No full textThis article is dedicated to the memory of Clive Granger, a founding editor of this journal. Its title echoes the title of his invited review article in a special issue of the Journal of Forecasting in 1989. That issue marked the twentieth anniversary of the publication of his article with John Bates, which is widely regarded as the seminal article in the field of forecast combination. This article returns to two of the topics in ‘Combining forecasts – twenty years later’ that are of much current interest, namely the impact of forecasters’ different information sets on the original point forecast combination result, and properties of different methods of combining density forecasts. A parallel result to his inefficiency-of-mean-forecasts result for point forecasts is seen to apply to density forecasts, where logarithmic combination is shown to have some advantage over linear combination
Frank Lloyd Wright: The Houses
No full textFrank Lloyd Wright, perhaps the most famous architect of all time, and certainly the most well known American architect, has been immensely influential in shaping the course of modern architecture, both in the U.S. and throughout the world. In particular, his residential work has been the subject of continuing interest and controversy. In Frank Lloyd Wright: The Houses, for the first time, all 291 extant Wright-designed houses are featured in exquisite color photography. Along with Alan Weintraub\u27s stunning photos, lucid principal text by author Alan Hess, and a selection of floor plans and archival images, the book includes text and essays by some of the field\u27s most highly esteemed Wright scholars and architecture historians, including Kenneth Frampton, Thomas S. Hines, Bruce Brooks Pfeiffer, Kathryn Smith, Margo Stipe, and Eric Lloyd Wright.https://nsuworks.nova.edu/nsudigital_flwbooks/1102/thumbnail.jp
Frank Zeidler, Milwaukee, and Cold War Civil Defense
No full textCivil defense in the Cold War encompassed the development of government policies and procedures to evacuate, shelter, and decentralizing American populations and industries in the event of a nuclear war. This project employs a body of primary documents to examine the unacknowledged role of Milwaukee's last Socialist mayor as a trailblazer in the design and implementation of civil defense policy during his tenure from 1948 until 1960. Under the leadership of the Zeidler Administration the city of Milwaukee was an exemplary national model for civil defense planning. Yet despite superior planning, implementation of civil defense in Milwaukee, like elsewhere, suffered both from apathy and the practical impossibility of preparing for nuclear disaster. This research contributes to our understanding of local defense and offers insight into the contemporary politics of municipal government in the metropolitan area of Milwaukee
The properties of some goodness-of-fit tests
No full textThe properties of Pearson’s goodness-of-fit test, as used in density forecast evaluation, income distribution analysis and elsewhere, are analysed. The components-of-chi-squared or “Pearson analog” tests of Anderson (1994) are shown to be less generally applicable than was originally claimed. For the case of equiprobable classes, where the general components tests remain valid, a Monte Carlo study shows that tests directed towards skewness and kurtosis may have low power, due to differences between the class boundaries and the intersection points of the distributions being compared. The power of individual component tests can be increased by the use of nonequiprobable classes
Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction: the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters
No full textThis article introduces a new source of survey data, namely the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters. The survey collects point and density forecasts of inflation and GDP growth, and hence offers the opportunity of constructing direct measures of uncertainty. We present a simple statistical framework in which to define and interrelate measures of uncertainty and disagreement. The resulting measures are compared with other direct measures of uncertainty, nationally and internationally. A significant, sustained reduction in inflation uncertainty followed the 1997 granting of operational independence to the Bank of England to pursue a monetary policy of inflation targeting
\u3ci\u3eDiving Birds of North America\u3c/i\u3e: Color Plates
No full text1. Arctic loon, adult in breeding plumage. Photo by author. 2. Red-throated loon, nesting adult. Photo by Kenneth W. Fink. 3. Yellow-billed loon, adult in breeding plumage. Photo by Kenneth W. Fink. 4. Common loon, nesting adult. Photo by Kenneth W. Fink. 5. Pied-billed grebe, adult in breeding plumage. Photo by author. 6. Least grebe, adult and young. Painting by Mark E. Marcuson. 7. Red-necked grebe, nesting adult. Photo by author. 8. Eared grebe, adults with young. Photo by Kenneth W. Fink. 9. Horned grebe, nesting adult. Photo by Kenneth W. Fink. 10. Western grebe, adult with young. Photo by Gary Nuechterlein. 11. Downy young of grebes, including light (top left) and dark phases (top right) of western, black-necked (upper left), horned (middle left), least (lower left), red-necked (middle right), and pied-billed (lower right). Painting by Jon Fjeldså. 12. Dovekie, adult in breeding plumage. Photo by Frank S. Todd. 13. Razorbill, adult in breeding plumage. Photo by author. 14. Common murre, adult in winter plumage. Photo by author. 15. Thick-billed murre, adult in breeding plumage. Photo by author. 16. Black guillemot, adult in breeding plumage. Photo by Frank S. Todd. 17. Pigeon guillemot, breeding colony. Photo by Frank S. Todd. 18. Pigeon guillemots, immature plumage (left), rhinoceros auklet (middle), and common murre, breeding plumage (right). Photo by author. 19. Marbled murrelet, incubating adult. Photo by Stuart Johnson. 20. Kittlitz murrelet, incubating adult. Photo by David G. Roseneau. 21. Cassin auklet, immature plumage. Photo by author. 22. Parakeet auklet, adults in breeding plumage. Photo by author. 23. Crested auklet, adults in breeding plumage. Photo by author. 24. Crested and least auklets, adults in breeding plumage. Photo by author. 25. Least auklet, juvenal plumage. Photo by Frank S. Todd. 26. Whiskered auklet, juvenal plumage. Photo by C. Fred Zeillemaker. 27. Whiskered, least, and crested auklets, breeding adults. Painting by Mark C. Marcuson. 28. Rhinoceros auklet, adult in breeding plumage. Photo by Frank S. Todd. 29. Tufted puffin, adults in breeding plumage. Photo by author. 30. Atlantic puffin, breeding colony. Photo by Frank S. Todd. 31. Atlantic puffin, adult in breeding plumage. Photo by Frank S. Todd. 32. Horned puffin adults in breeding plumage. Photo by author
Eastland and others in the Senate Internal Security Subcommittee during testimony of James Hoffa
No full textPictured: Kenneth Keating (New York), John McClellan (Arkansas), Chief Investigator Frank Schroeder, Assistant Editorial Director Ralph Hutto, and Chief Counsel J.G. Sourwine. Inscribed: To Ralph Hutto with Best Wishes and Highest Personal/Regards -- Jim Eastland. Typed caption on bottom fronthttps://egrove.olemiss.edu/joephoto_d/1036/thumbnail.jp
The sensitivity of chi-squared goodness-of-fit tests to the partitioning of data
No full textIn this paper we conduct a Monte Carlo study to determine the power of
Pearson’s overall goodness-of-fit test as well as the “Pearson analog” tests (see
Anderson (1994)) to detect rejections due to shifts in variance, skewness and kurtosis,
as we vary the number and location of the partition points. Simulations are conducted
for small and moderate sample sizes. While it is generally recommended that to
improve the power of the goodness-of-fit test the partition points are equiprobable, we
find that power can be improved by the use of non-equiprobable partitions
Evaluating a three-dimensional panel of point forecasts : the Bank of England survey of external forecasters
No full textThis article provides a first analysis of the forecasts of inflation and GDP growth obtained from the Bank of England's Survey of External Forecasters, considering both the survey average forecasts published in the quarterly Inflation Report, and the individual survey responses, recently made available by the Bank. These comprise a conventional incomplete panel dataset, with an additional dimension arising from the collection of forecasts at several horizons; both point forecasts and density forecasts are collected. The inflation forecasts show good performance in tests of unbiasedness and efficiency, albeit over a relatively calm period for the UK economy, and there is considerable individual heterogeneity. For GDP growth, inaccurate real-time data and their subsequent revisions are seen to cause serious difficulties for forecast construction and evaluation, although the forecasts are again unbiased. There is evidence that some forecasters have asymmetric loss functions
Macroeconomic modelling in central banks in Latin America
No full textThis paper presents an overview of current developments in macroeconomic modelling for forecasting and policy analysis in Latin America, based on material presented at a REDIMA project meeting at the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Santiago de Chile, in September 2007. Some particular issues that arise in modeling emerging economies are described, in the context of recent developments in modeling developed economies
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