165 research outputs found
Predictive power of output growth, inflation, and interest rate on stock return and volatility: a comparison
No full textUsing monthly data from seven mature and emerging markets and a battery of GARCH and EGARCH models, the study of Davis and Kutan (2003) on inflation and output on stock returns and volatility is extended by including interest rate to compare the effect between three mature markets (US, Japan, and Singapore) and four emerging markets who experienced a crisis before (Malaysia, India, Korea, and Philippines). It is found that economic volatility, as measured by movement in inflation, output growth, and interest rate, have a weak predictor power for stock market volatility and returns. In line with the evidence reported in Davis and Kutan (2003), the findings suggest that there is no support for the Fisher effect in stock returns among the seven mature and emerging markets
Augmented MCi: AN Indicator Of Monetary Policy Stance For ASEAN-5?
No full textThis paper uses quarterly data from 1980 to 2004 for ASEAN-5 founder countries to estimate the weight of the Augmented Monetary Conditions Index (AMCI), and identifies the key transmission mechanism paths using Pesaran and Pesaran’s (1997) ARDL procedure, and Pesaran et al.’s (2001) bounds procedure. The roles of credit and asset price channels are assessed for aggregate demand conditions and in the transmission of monetary policy. Results reveal evidence of cointegration for all the ASEAN-Five founder countries. The estimate of the interest and exchange rate elasticities of aggregate demand is used to determine the weight of the exchange rate in the AMCI, and ultimately the weight is then used to construct the AMCI ratio. Exchange rate, asset price, and interest rate channels are three key transmission mechanisms in the conduct of monetary policy in Indonesia and Thailand. Meanwhile in Malaysia and Singapore, exchange rate, both the long and short term interest rate, and credit channels are three key transmission mechanisms in the conduct of monetary policy. In the Philippines, four key transmission mechanisms take place, namely the interest rate, exchange rate, credit, and asset price channels, with short rate relatively weaker than the long rate at the margin. The estimated weights of real interest rates and real exchange rate are used to estimate the AMCI ratios. The AMCI ratios range from 0.052 to 0.664 [0.052:1 for Philippines, 0.056:1 for Thailand, 0.073:1 for Indonesia, 0.109:1 for Malaysia; and 0.664 for Singapore]. Monetary conditions during the period under-study are found to be reflected in each of the central banks’ reaction to the prevailing economic situation, which implies that AMCI tracks the movements of the real GDP plausibly on the average, particularly after 1997.Augmented Monetary Conditions Index; monetary policy; transmission mechanism
Hong Kong cinema 1982-2002 : the quest for identity during transition
No full textElectronic redacted version excludes material for which permission has not been granted by the rights holderThis thesis seeks to interpret the cinematic representations of Hong Kongers’ identity quest during a transitional state/stage related to the sovereignty transfer. The Handover transition considered is an ideological one, rather than the overnight polity change on the Handover day. This research approaches contemporary Hong Kong cinema on two fronts and the thesis is structured accordingly: Upon an initial review of the existing Hong Kong film scholarship in the Introduction, and its 1997-related allegorical readings, Part I sees new angles (previously undeveloped or underdeveloped) for researching Hong Kong films made during 1982-2002. Arguments are built along the ideas of Hong Kongers’ situational, diasporic consciousness, and transformed ‘Chineseness’ because Hong Kong has lacked a cultural/national centrality. This part of research is informed by the ideas of Jacques Derrida, Homi Bhabha and Stuart Hall, and the diasporic experiences of Ien Ang, Rey Chow and Ackbar Abbas. With these new research angles and references to the circumstances, Part II reads critically the text of eight Hong Kong films made during the Handover transition. In chronological order, they are Boat People (Hui, 1982), Song of the Exile (Hui, 1990), Days of Being Wild (Wong, 1990), Happy Together (Wong, 1997), Made in Hong Kong (Chan, 1997), Ordinary Heroes (Hui, 1999), Durian Durian (Chan, 2000), and Hollywood Hong Kong (Chan, 2002). They meet several criteria related to the undeveloped / underdeveloped areas in the existing Hong Kong film scholarship. Hamid Naficy’s ‘accented cinema’ paradigm gives the guidelines to the film analysis in Part II. This part shows that Hong Kongers’ self-transformation during transition is alterable, indeterminate, and interminable, due to the people’s situational, diasporic consciousness, and transformed ‘Chineseness’. This thesis thus contributes to Hong Kong cinema scholarship in interpreting films with new research angles, and generating new insights into this cinematic tradition and its wider context
A monetary policy rule: The augmented Monetary Conditions Index for Philippines using UECM and bounds tests
No full textThis paper constructs the augmented monetary conditions index (AMCI) over 1982:1-2004:4 using UECM and bounds test approach for the Philippines data. Results reveal evidence of cointegration between the real GDP and its determinants, namely short-term interest rate, exchange rate and claims on private sectors that take into account three key transmission mechanisms channels in the conduct of monetary policy, namely the interest rate, exchange rate and credit channels. While asset price channel is found to be insignificant. The monetary conditions during the study periods is reflected in the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’s reaction to the prevailing economic situation, imply that the AMCI tracks the inverse movements of the real GDP growth reasonably well after 1990s. Possible light of policy implications have put forward.AMCI, monetary policy, cointegration, bounds test, UECM, transmission mechanisms
An Application Of Augmented Monetary Conditions Index On The ASEAN-Five
No full textPrevious studies have suggested Monetary Conditions Index (hereafter MCI) serves
as an indicator of the monetary policy stance to capture the degree of tightness of the
monetary policy. The weights of the MCI in the model reflect long-term effects of
the interest rate and the exchange rate on the economic activity and ultimately the
inflation. Nevertheless, MCIs may not be used as an operational target as it has
heavily been documented in the mainstream literature since it is not resilient to the
problem of shock identification. Recognizing the caveats upon its usage empirically,
the augmented MCI (AMCI) is contemplated by incorporating more informative
‘other variables’ into the conventional model which consists of two major variables
i.e., the interest rate and the exchange rate. Since monetary policy affects the price
level through a number of transmission mechanisms, other potential variables need
to be incorporated to AMCI to account for possible channels in the transmission
mechanisms. The details of “other variables” are as follows: 1) government bonds yield as proxy for long-term interest rate; 2) the real share price as proxy for asset
price channel, and 3) real claims on private sectors for credit channel. However, the
lag effects of the examined determinant variables on output are dynamics and vary,
at least in the short-term. Therefore, the main objective of this thesis is to estimate
the weight of the AMCI, and identify the lag effect on the real Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) using Autoregression Distribution Lags (ARDL) bounds test
approach for cointegration analysis as proposed by Pesaran et al., (2001).
Bounds test reveals an evidence of the long-run cointegration for all the
ASEAN-Five founder countries. This has verified the stability of the country’s GDP
demand function which is used to construct the AMCI ratio. In Indonesia, the bounds
test reveals an evidence of the long-run cointegration between the real GDP and its
determinants, namely the bond rate, the exchange rate, and the share prices from
1983:2-2004:4. Nevertheless, the claim of private sector (COPS, the proxy of credit
channel) does not appear to be a significant variable in the model. Meanwhile for
both Malaysia and Singapore, the ARDL approach validates the existence of
long-run cointegration between the GDP and the exchange rate, the bond and the
short-term interest rate, as well as the COPS over the quarterly period of
1980:1-2004:4 and 1981:1-2004:4 respectively. Nevertheless, the asset price channel
does not fit into the model significantly. While in Thailand, the bounds test reveals
an evidence of the cointegration between the real GDP and its determinants, i.e., the
interest rate, the exchange rate, and the share price over the quarterly period of
1980:1-2004:4). However, the credit channel does not reveal any significant result in the model. In the Philippines, the bounds test reveals an evidence of a cointegration
between the real GDP and the bond rate, the short-term interest rate, the exchange
rate, the COPS, and the share price that address all the key transmission mechanisms
channels in the conduct of the monetary policy, namely the interest rate channel, the
exchange rate channel, the credit channel, and the asset price channel over the
quarterly period of 1982:1-2004:4
Monetary conditions during the period under-study are found to be reflected in each of
the central banks’ reaction to the prevailing economic situation, which implies that
AMCI tracks the inversed movements of the real GDP plausibly on the average,
except during the onset of Asian financial crisis in 1997
Pekali Gini, purata pendapatan bulanan isirumah ras, dan nisbah jurang pendapatan antara ras di Malaysia
No full textUsers' adoption of e-banking services: the Malaysian perspective
No full textPurpose - The purpose of this paper is to explore the determinants of users' adoption momentum of e-banking in Malaysia.
Design/methodology/approach - A questionnaire with four-point Likert scale is applied to 324 usable responses. Ten attributes are tested, namely convenience of usage, accessibility, features availability, bank management and image, security, privacy, design, content, speed, and fees and charges.
Findings - Results indicate that all elements for ten identified factors are significant with respect to the users' adoption of e-banking services. Privacy and security are the major sources of dissatisfaction, which have momentously impacted users' satisfaction. Meanwhile, accessibility, convenience, design and content are sources of satisfaction. Besides, the speed, product features availability, and reasonable service fees and charges, as well as the bank's operations management factor are critical to the success of the e-banks. WAP, GPRS and 3G features from mobile devices are of no significance or influence in the adoption of e-banking services in this study. Results also reveal that privacy, security and convenience factors play an important role in determining the users' acceptance of e-banking services with respect to different segmentation of age group, education level and income level.
Research limitations/implications - The use of convenience sampling in this study weakens research objectivity. This study excludes the voice of non-users and non-users' views should be taken into account in future study.
Practical implications - The results are expected to provide a practical contribution in the area of retail banking and in understanding consumer behavior in the Malaysian business-to-business financial services industry.
Originality/value - This paper is the extension of an earlier study by Suganthi et X which identified seven factors affecting the adoption of internet banking, with 17 elements, This study examines a wider scope of factors that consist of ten attributes with 78 elements based on the extant literature
Remittance, Oil Trade Balance, and Income: Empirical Evidence From 55 Developing Countries
No full textThis article investigates the effect of net oil trading position on remittance flows through income variation of 55 developing countries over 1986–2018. To disentangle the causal effect of aggregate income on remittances, we take advantage of the persistent response of income to world oil price shocks and instrument income by the lagged interaction term between the dynamics of oil prices and net oil trade volumes. Results reveal that countries with a more substantial net oil trade balance attract larger remittances after an increase in global oil prices. Remittance flows to developing countries are associated with an altruistic or compensatory motive except for net oil-exporting countries where an investment motive prevails. The causal effect reveals via the income channel of the remittance-receiving country. Our results underscore that a surge in the oil trade balance affects remittance flows through its effect on per capita income. Oil trade balance variation exerts a persistent effect on income, and remittances actively respond to permanent income shocks, lasting for more than five years for oil-exporting countries
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