196,583 research outputs found
Macroeconomic forecasting using model averaging
No full textPhDRecently, there has been a broadening concern on forecasting techniques that are
applied on large data sets, since economists in business and management want to
deal with the great magnitude of information. In this analysis, the issue of forecasting
a large data set by using different model averaging approaches is addressed.
In particular, Bayesian and frequentist model averaging methods are considered,
including Bayesian model averaging (BMA), information theoretic model averaging
(ITMA) and predictive likelihood model averaging (PLMA). The predictive performance
of each scheme is compared with the most promising existing alternatives,
namely benchmark AR model and the equal weighted model averaging (AV) scheme.
An empirical application on Inflation forecasting for five countries using large
data sets within the model averaging framework is applied. The average ARX model
with weights constructed differently according to each model averaging scheme is
compared with both the benchmark AR and the AV model. For the comparison
of the accuracy of forecasts several performance indicators have been provided such
as the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), the
U-Theil’s Inequality Coefficient (U), Mean Square Forecast Error (MSFE) and the
Relative Mean Square Forecast Error (RMSFE). Next, within the Granger causality
framework through the Diebold & Mariano (DM) test and the Clark & McCracken
(CM) test, whether the data-rich models represented by the three different model
averaging schemes have made a statistically significant improvement relative to the
benchmark forecasts has been tested. Critical values at 5% and at 10% have been
calculated based on bootstrap approximation of the finite sample distribution of the
DM and CM test statistics.
The main outcome is that although the information theoretic model averaging
scheme is a more powerful approach, the other two model averaging techniques can
be regarded as useful alternatives
Jürgen Schiewe – Thomas Niehr – Sandro M. Moraldo (hrsg. v.), Sprach(kritik)kompetenz als Mittel demokratischer Willensbildung, Hempen Verlag, «Greifswalder Beiträge zur Linguistik», Bd. 12, Bremen 2019, pp. 224, € 39
No full textDie Sprache 'über' die AFD: Ein internationaler Vergleich von Online-Zeitungen
No full textDie 'Alternative für Deutschland' (AfD) ist eine junge Partei Deutschlands, die 2017 erstmals ins Parlament eintrat. Ihre Sprache hat oft Skandale erregt, demnach haben sich viele Sprachwissenschaftler damit aus verschiedenen Perspektiven beschäftig: Einige haben sich auf öffentliche Reden (vgl. Gür-Şeker 2019) fokussiert, andere auf linguistische Strategien im Grundsatzprogramm (vgl. Kämper 2017) oder in Landtagswahlkämpfen (vgl. Arenskrieger 2019); andere haben auch kontrastive (internationale) vergleiche aufgestellt (vgl. Gannuscio 2019). Niemand hat sich bisher allerdings damit auseinandergesetzt, wie man über diese Partei gesprochen wird: Genau das soll zur leitenden Forschungsfrage meines Beitrags werden, der sich nicht als erschöpfende Darstellung versteht, sondern vielmehr als einführender (auch methodischer) Blick in das Problem. Das Korpus besteht aus insgesamt dreiundsiebzig Zeitungsartikeln, die unmittelbar nach den Bundestagswahlen veröffentlicht wurden (zwischen dem 25. und dem 30.09.2017), und die aus einigen der wichtigsten online zugänglichen deutschen Zeitungen stammten, sprich 'Bild', 'Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung' und 'Die Welt'. Um diese Arbeit aber nicht nur auf Deutschland zu beschränken, wurden auch wichtige österreichische Zeitungen miteingeschlossen, wie die 'Kronenzeitung', 'Der Standard', 'oe24', 'Die Presse' und 'Kurier'. Von dem theoretischen Ansatz der vergleichenden Diskurslinguistik ausgehend (Böke et al. 2000) hat man sich hier aus Platzgründen auf die Ebenen der 'diskursrelevanten' Lexik (vgl. ebd., 20) und der Argumentation (vgl. Niehr 2004) konzentriert. Quantitativ wurde die Untersuchung durch die Anwendung der Konkordanzsoftware AntConc gestützt. Die vorliegende Ermittlung konnte wichtige Hinweise nicht mehr auf die Sprache der AfD, sondern 'über' die AfD liefern, und damit konnte auch das Problem der 'inszenierten Opfer-Rolle' (Leif 2017: 27) der Partei neu behandelt werden. Darüber hinaus hat die Internationalität des Korpus auch Ähnlichkeiten und Unterschiede zwischen den deutschen und österreichischen Publikationsmedien ans Licht gebracht.
Zitierte Literatur:
Arenskrieger, Theresa (2019): 'Zuwanderung muss dort aufhören, wo die Identität des eigenen Volkes gefährdet wird'. Implizite Sprachstrategien im AfD-Landtagswahlkampf 2016. In: Schiewe, Jürgen / Niehr, Thomas / Moraldo, Sandro M. (Hgg.): Sprach(kritik)kompetenz als Mittel demokratischer Willensbildung. Bremen, S. 63-78.
Böcke, Karin / Jung, Matthias / Niehr, Thomas / Wengeler, Martin (2000): Vergleichende Diskurslinguistik. Überlegungen zur Analyse internationaler und intralingualer Textkorpora. In: Böcke, Karin / Niehr, Thomas (Hrsg.): Einwanderungsdiskurse. Vergleichende diskurslinguistische Studien. Wiesbaden, S. 11-36.
Gannuscio, Vincenzo (2019): 'Wir sind das (echte) Volk.' Sprachliche Ausgrenzungsstrategien der rechtspopulistischen Propaganda der AfD und der Lega Nord. In: Schiewe, Jürgen / Niehr, Thomas / Moraldo, Sandro M. (Hgg.): Sprach(kritik)kompetenz als Mittel demokratischer Willensbildung. Bremen, S. 43-61.
Gür-Şeker, Derya (2019): Exklusionsstrategien in rechtspopulistischen Reden. Eine sprachkritische Annäherung mit Fokus auf Nomination, Prädikation und Metapherngebrauch im Diskurs über Migranten. In: Schiewe, Jürgen / Niehr, Thomas / Moraldo, Sandro M. (Hgg.): Sprach(kritik)kompetenz als Mittel demokratischer Willensbildung. Bremen, S. 79-97.
Leif, Thomas (2017): Tabubruch, Provokation, Opferstatus: Wie die AfD jenseits ihrer ,bürgerlichen‘ Fassade Politik betreibt, offenbart ihr Strategiepapier für das Wahljahr 2017. In: Ansgar Klein, Hans-Josef Legrand, Thomas Leif, Jan Rohwerder (Hgg.): Forschungsjournal Soziale Bewegungen. Berlin/Boston, Vol.30(2), S. 26-33.
Kämper, Heidrun D. (2017): Das Grundsatzprogramm der AfD und seine historischen Parallelen. Eine Perspektive der Politolinguistik. In: Sprachreport 33 (2017), H. 2, S. 1-21.
Niehr, Thomas (2004), Der Streit um Migration in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland, der Schweiz und Österreich. Eine vergleichende diskursgeschichtliche Untersuchung. Heidelberg
Moduli of non-standard Nikulin surfaces in low genus
No full textPrimitively polarized genus g Nikulin surfaces (S, M, H) are of two types, that we call standard and non-standard depending on whether the lattice embedding Z[H] ⊕⊥ N ⊂ Pic S is primitive. Here H is the genus g polarization and N is the Nikulin lattice. We concentrate on the non-standard case, which only occurs in odd genus. In particular, we study the birational geometry of the moduli space of nonstandard Nikulin surfaces of genus g and prove its rationality for g = 7, 11 and the existence of a rational double cover of it when g = 9. Furthermore, if (S, M, H) is general in the above moduli space and (C, M|C ) is a general Prym curve in |H|, we determine the dimension of the family of non-standard Nikulin surfaces of genus g containing (C, M|C ) for 3 ≤ g ≤ 11; this completes the study of the Prym-Nikulin map initiated in [KLV].acceptedVersio
DIE EUROPÄISCHE IDENTITÄT IN DEUTSCHEN BUNDESTAGSDEBATTEN: EINE POLITOLINGUISTISCHE ANALYSE
No full textDie europäische Identität in deutschen Bundestagsdebatten:
Eine politolinguistische Analyse
(European identity in German parliamentary debates: a politolinguistic analysis)
The question of European Identity is controversial and its topicality in the public debate has not disappeared within the last years, consider for example the results of the last European elections (2019), which saw the emergence of (at least at the beginning) Euro-critical actors, such as the Italian Lega or the German Alternative für Deutschland, or the recent Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Its complexity derives from the very definitions of Europe and identity, both polysemous words; this complexity also explains why there has been many attempts to study this concept from different perspectives (sociology, political sciences etc., cf. Prutsch 2017). Considering the close relationship between language and identity (cf. for ex. Pistolesi/Schwarze 2007), the main objective of my PhD thesis is to contribute to this debate by investigating European identity from a linguistic perspective, i.e. looking at how it is thematised or discussed about in the political field. The main research questions are therefore: (1) How and which texts can a corpus for the linguistic analysis of European Identity be constituted of? (2) How can this phenomenon be analysed from a linguistic perspective? (3) Which (lexical, metaphorical, argumentative) patterns emerge from the study of the thematization of European identity? In order to answer question (1), for the purpose of this study I took into consideration the German parliament and the political parties represented in it: in particular, I considered parliamentary debates that took place between 1991 and 2021, trying to sort out the most relevant for the present analysis, first automatically on the Discourse Lab platform, then manually through the software MAXQDA. For the corpus selection as well as for the analysis I decided to focus on one expression of European identity, i.e. the thematization through the explicit use of the name identity (together with its word forms and compounds) in relation to Europe (and its word forms and compounds). In order to answer question (2), European identity has already been studied in linguistics, especially from a sociolinguistic and (critical) discourse analytical standpoint (cf. for ex. Krzyżanowski 2010, Heinemann/Helfrich/Visser 2022). Less investigated seem however the studies which focus specifically on this phenomenon in the political language, using a mainly descriptive approach: in my thesis I therefore claim that a politolinguistic analysis, which makes use of methods derived from the discourse analysis, that is a politolinguistische Diskursanalyse (politolinguistic discourse analysis, cf. Niehr 2014), could prove particularly fruitful to provide new and valuable insights into this question. Such an approach focuses on three levels of analysis: lexis, metaphors and argumentation (ibid.). Seeing identity as the main part of the nominal phrase European identity, I focused for the lexical part on word forms, compounds and collocators of this term. I then annotated the corpus in MAXQDA, focusing firstly on the “higher-level concepts” (übergeordnete Konzepte in Wichmann 2018) and the source domains for the metaphorical part and then on the “prototypical arguments” (prototypische Argumente in Niehr 2004) for the argumentation part. The integration of these three levels made it possible to answer research question (3), thus conducting a quantitative-qualitative synchronic-diachronic investigation. The results were manifold and underlined general as well as party specific tendencies. In general, the frequency of use of the concept of European identity seems to decline over the years and to change its focus: if, for ex., in the first considered legislative periods the concept of Sicherheits-/Verteidigungsidentität (“security and defence identity”) plays a central role, since the sixth considered legislative period it disappears. It was also possible to show that European identity in parliamentary debates is conceptualised not so much through the concept of “process”, as through those of “conflict” (according to the scheme “Europe is in a conflict situation”) or of a “space”, composed of different parts. The lexical analysis brought out some for the discourse relevant thematic complexes (which I called diskursrelevante Themenkomplexe), which allowed to further specify these general tendences: particular attention in the corpus is drawn to the relation between local identities and the European identity, as well as to cultural aspects, which are described as factors which are able to create a sense of belonging; other factors, such as educational initiatives or religion or political factors, seem less important. Political factors seem however to increase their importance within the last few legislative periods. The overlap between Europe and the European Union remains unsolved. Finally, it was also possible to detect some party specificities, such as the fact that the CDU/CSU focuses its attention on the conceptualisation of European identity as a space with clear boundaries, which can generate dynamics of inclusion/exclusion with regard to those who (do not) belong to this space, or the fact the B90/Die Grünen is the only party, which puts culture and common values above the preservation of local identities in European perspective. The hope is that this analysis can contribute to the scientific debate on the considered issue and can constitute a starting point for further (also contrastive) research; furthermore, this work could contribute to increase awareness in the general public when listening to or watching parliamentary debates.
Cited references:
Discourse Lab (o. J.). Online: http://130.83.47.167/cqpweb/ (zuletzt abgerufen: 23.02.2022).
Krzyżanowski, Michał (2010): The Discursive Construction of European Identities. A Multi-Level Approach to Discourse and Identity in the Transforming European Union. Frankfurt am Main.
Heinemann, Sabine / Helfrich, Uta / Visser, Judith (eds.) (2022): On the Discursive Deconstruction and Reconstruction of Europe. Berlin.
MAXQDA (o. J.). Online: https://www.maxqda.de/ (zuletzt abgerufen: 01.07.2022).
Niehr, Thomas (2004): Der Streit um Migration in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland, der Schweiz und Österreich: eine vergleichende diskursgeschichtliche Untersuchung. Heidelberg.
Niehr, Thomas (2014), Einführung in die linguistische Diskursanalyse. Darmstadt.
Pistolesi, Elena / Schwarze, Sabine (a cura di) (2007): Vicini/Lontani: Identità e alterità nella/della lingua. Frankfurt a. M., S. VII-XIV.
Prutsch, Markus J. (2017): Im Auftrag des CULT-Ausschusses durchgeführte Studie – Europäische Identität. Brüssel.
Wichmann, Martin (2018): Metaphern im Zuwanderungsdiskurs. Linguistische Analysen zur Metaphorik in der politischen Kommunikation. Berlin
(UNI)RATIONAL PARAMETRIZATIONS OF Rg,2, Rg,4AND Rg,6IN LOW GENERA
No full textThe moduli space Rg,2n parametrizes double covers of smooth curves of genus g ramified at 2n points. We will prove the (uni)rationality of Rg,2, Rg,4and Rg,6in low genera. Resume (Paramétrisations (uni)rationelles de Rg,2, Rg,4et Rg,6en petits genres) L'espace de modules Rg,2n paramétrise les revêtements doubles de courbes lisses de genre g ramifiés en 2n points. Nous montrons la (uni)rationalité de Rg,2, Rg,4et Rg,6en petits genres
Damals war das Wort Deutschland noch sehr arg gehasst: Intensitätspartikeln adjektivischen Ursprungs
No full textAim of the following study is to supplement previous analyses of emotion vocabulary in autobiographical interviews. Based on the study of the intensity particle ganz in the corpus “Emigrantendeutsch in Israel: Wiener in Jerusalem” (ISW) (cf. Flinz/Moroni 2020), the article analyses intensity particles of the type “intensity adjectives with broad attributive usability” and “intensity adjectives
with limited attributive usability” (Breindl 2007). The data are based on two different autobiographical narrative corpora: the corpus “Emigrantendeutsch in Israel” (IS), one of the three corpora that constitute the so-called Israel corpus (cf. Betten/Du-nour 1995; Betten/Du-nour 2000), and the corpus “Flucht und Emigration nach Großbritannien” (FEGB) (cf. Thüne 2019). Emotions play a central role in these two corpora, as not only old emotions are evoked during memory work, but new ones are also created. Since intensity particles are
also counted as part of the emotional vocabulary, it can be assumed that they are frequently used there to thematise emotions (cf. Fiehler 2011), also in connection with other linguistic and extra-linguistic means. After explaining the theoretical background (section 2), the data basis, the approach and the research questions are presented in the third section. In section 4, the results of the corpus linguistic multi-level analysis, which utilised both quantitative and qualitative analysis steps, are presented for discussion. Concluding remarks follow in section 5
Dr. Duane M. Jackson, Morehouse College, July 2011
No full textThis video is a conversation with Dr. Duane M. Jackson. Dr. Jackson talks about his paper, "Recall and the Serial Position Effect: The Role of Primacy and Recency on Accounting Students' Performance." Jackie Daniel, AUC Woodruff Library, is the interviewer
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