1,720,978 research outputs found
Forecast in foreign exchange markets
No full textWe perform a statistical study of weak efficiency in Deutschemark/US dollar exchange rates using high frequency data. The presence of correlations in the returns sequence implies the possibility of a statistical forecast of market behavior. We show the existence of correlations and how information theory can be relevant in this context
Correlations and multi-affinity in high frequency financial datasets
No full textIn this paper we perform a quantitative check of long term correlations and multi-affinity in Deutsche Mark/US Dollar exchange rates using high frequency data. We show that the use of business time, i.e., the ranking of the quotes in the sequences, eliminates most of the seasonality in financial-time series, allowing a precise estimation of some return anomalies. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved
Antipersistent Markov behavior in foreign exchange markets
No full textA quantitative check of efficiency in US dollar/Deutsche mark exchange rates is developed using high-frequency (tick by tick) data. The antipersistent Markov behavior of log-price fluctuations of given size implies, in principle, the possibility of a statistical forecast. We introduce and measure the available information of the quote sequence, and we show how it can be profitable following a particular trading rule. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved
Gradual Modifications and Abrupt Replacements: Two Stochastic Lexical Ingredients of Language Evolution
Full text linkThe evolution of the vocabulary of a language is characterized by two different random processes: abrupt lexical replacements, when a complete new word emerges to represent a given concept (which was at the basis of the Swadesh foundation of glottochronology in the 1950s), and gradual lexical modifications that progressively alter words over the centuries, considered here in detail for the first time. The main discriminant between these two processes is their impact on cognacy within a family of languages or dialects, since the former modifies the subsets of cognate terms and the latter does not. The automated cognate detection, which is here performed following a new approach inspired by graph theory, is a key preliminary step that allows us to later measure the effects of the slow modification process. We test our dual approach on the family of Malagasy dialects using a cladistic analysis, which provides strong
evidence that lexical replacements and gradual lexical modifications are two random processes that separately drive the evolution of languages
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