69 research outputs found
How should we estimate value-relevance models? Insights from European Data
No full textWe study the consequences of unobserved heterogeneity when employing different econometric methods in the estimation of two major value-relevance models: the Price Regression Model (PRM) and the Return Regression Model (RRM). Leveraging a large panel data set of European listed companies, we first demonstrate that robust Hausman tests and Breusch-Pagan Lagrange Multiplier tests are of fundamental importance to choose correctly among a fixed-effects model, a random-effects model, or a pooled OLS model. Second, we provide evidence that replacing firm fixed-effects with country and industry fixed-effects can lead to large differences in the magnitude of the key coefficients, with serious consequences for the interpretation of the effect of changes in earnings and book values per share on firm value. Finally, we offer recommendations to applied researchers aiming to improve the robustness of their econometric strategy
Massive Migration and Elections: Evidence from the Refugee Crisis in Greece
No full textThis article explores whether the massive arrival of refugees at Greek islands has had an impact on natives’ voting behaviour. Our results show a positive and significant effect of refugees’ presence on votes for the Greek extreme-right party Golden Dawn. More precisely, we find that a 1 per cent increase in the share of refugees is associated with an increase of 5 per cent in the share of votes for Golden Dawn. This outcome is robust under different estimation methodologies and placebo regressions
Does talent migration increase inequality? A quantitative assessment in football labour market
No full textI analyze the links between talent migration and cross-country inequality by exploiting the 1995 elimination of mobility restrictions on the European football labor market. I develop a simple model and employ an empirical dataset to estimate its parameters. Through simulation analysis, I compare actual data with a counterfactual no-mobility restriction trajectory, and conclude that the elimination of mobility barriers increases not only cross-country inequality by 25%, but also global output in the football economy by stimulating the production of new talent in Africa, Latin and Central America
Fighting poverty and child malnutrition: on the design of foreign aid policies
No full textIn this paper, we develop a two period overlapping generation model on the effects of child nutrition in developing countries.The model gives rise to multiple equilibria including a poverty trap. We show that child nutrition status affects unfavorably the evolution of human capital and leads countries into poverty. We consider different exogenous foreign aid policies implemented by international organizations such as the World Food Program (WFP). We find that school feeding programs solve social problems like child labor.However, they do not necessarily lead countries to achieve economic development. On the contrary they can lead to poverty if the initial human capital is low. We show that if subsidies are high enough they can prevent a country from going into poverty. Also, we argue that if the WFP provides fixed amount of food to households, then a quality-quantity trade off takes place. Parents decrease the nutrition of their offsprings and increase their number of children.Consequently, total nutrition decreases and the developing country is trickles down and gets locked into poverty trap for any given level of human capitalChild Nutrition; Foreign Aids; poverty traps; human capital;school meals
Globalized market for talents and inequality : what can be learnt from European football?
No full textComplex interactions between high-skilled migration and aggregate performance govern the dynamics of growth and inequality across nations. Due to lack of data, these interdependencies have not been extensively studied in the economics literature. This paper takes advantage of the availability of rich panel data on the mobility of talented football players, and the performances of national leagues and teams to quantify the effect of a
globalization" shock, the 1995 Bosman rule, on global efficiency and cross-country inequality in football. I built a micro-founded model endogenizing migration decisions, inequality and training; I estimated its structural parameters; and I used numerical simulations to
compare actual data with a counterfactual no-Bosman trajectory. My analysis reveals that the Bosman shock (i) increased global efficiency in football, (ii) increased inequality across leagues, and (iii) decreased inequality across national teams. I quantify the effect of the
Bosman rule on the football hierarchy of UEFA and FIFA. Countries from Africa, South except Argentina and Brazil) and Central America have produced more talents and benefitted from brain-gain type effects. My results also show that this brain-gain mechanism is the major source of efficiency gains. However, it plays only a minor role in explaining the rising inequality
The social economic impact of AIDS: Accounting for intergenerational transmission, productivity and fertility
No full textIn this paper we develop a model that aims to investigate the economic and demographic impacts of three effects of the HIV-AIDS epidemic in developing countries. The direct effect of the HIV epidemic is that it hits the inherited characteristics of young adults. The two indirect effects, resulting from the first, are the reduction in productivity of adults and the transmission of the disease to their offsprings. We allow these different effects to act either separately or together, and we investigate the marginal efficiency of health expenditures on the survival probability of individuals and demographics. The direct effect of the HIV virus is that it leads adults to increase their own health expenditure and to decrease that of their children. On the contrary, the transmission effect of the HIV virus leads parents to spend more on their children than on their own. We show that the reduction in productivity of young adults decreases health expenditures for themselves and their children. Furthermore, we find that the productivity effect dominates by large the two others. Moreover, when adults decide to have fewer children because of HIV, we show that the ratio of low to high skilled workers increases. This demographic impact impoverishes the economy in the short and medium run
The Effects of Exposure to Refugees on Crime: Evidence from the Greek Islands
No full textRecent political instability in the Middle East has triggered one of the largest influxes ofrefugees into Europe. The different departure points along the Turkish coast generate exogenousvariation in refugee arrivals across Greek islands. We construct a new dataset on the numberand nature of crime incidents and arrested offenders at island level using official police recordsand newspaper reports. Instrumental variables and difference-in-differences are employed tostudy the causal relationship between immigration and crime. We find that a 1-percentage-pointincrease in the share of refugees on destination islands increases crime incidents by 1.7-2.5 percentagepoints compared with neighboring unexposed islands. This is driven by crime incidentscommitted by refugees; there is no change in crimes committed by natives on those islands. Wefind a significant rise in property crime, knife attacks, and rape, but no increase in drug crimes.Results based on reported crimes exhibit a similar pattern. Our findings highlight the need forgovernment provision in terms of infrastructure, social benefits, quicker evaluation for asylum,and social security
Fighting poverty and child malnutrition: on the design of foreign aid policies
No full textIn this paper, we develop a two period overlapping generation model on the effects of child nutrition in developing countries.The model gives rise to multiple equilibria including a poverty trap. We show that child nutrition status affects unfavorably the evolution of human capital and leads countries into poverty. We consider different exogenous foreign aid policies implemented by international organizations such as the World Food Program (WFP). We find that school feeding programs solve social problems like child labor.However, they do not necessarily lead countries to achieve economic development. On the contrary they can lead to poverty if the initial human capital is low. We show that if subsidies are high enough they can prevent a country from going into poverty. Also, we argue that if the WFP provides fixed amount of food to households, then a quality-quantity trade off takes place. Parents decrease the nutrition of their offsprings and increase their number of children.Consequently, total nutrition decreases and the developing country is trickles down and gets locked into poverty trap for any given level of human capita
Essays on economic growth and international migration
No full textThis thesis consists of four distinct chapters.
In Chapter 1, I develop a model that aims to investigate the economic and demographic impacts of three effects of the HIV-AIDS epidemic in developing countries. The direct effect of the HIV epidemic is that it increases mortality and morbidity. The two indirect effects, resulting from the first, are the reduction in productivity of adults and the transmission of the disease to their offsprings. I allow these different effects to act either separately or together, and I investigate the marginal efficiency of health expenditures on the survival probability of individuals and demographics.
In the Chapter 2, I develop a two-period overlapping-generation model featuring the effects of child nutrition in developing countries. The model gives rise to multiple equilibria including poverty traps. I show that child nutrition status may affect the development of human capital unfavourably and lead countries into poverty. Various exogenous foreign aid policies implemented by international organizations such as the World Food Programme (WFP) are considered like school feeding programs, subsidise food prices and provision of fixed food in households.
In the Chapter 3, along with co-authors, we identify and quantify the role of international migration in the propagation of HIV across sub-Saharan African countries.
The last chapter of this thesis focuses on the effects of International migration on the economic performance of the receiving countries after a liberalization shock. Complex interactions between high-skilled migration and aggregate performance govern the dynamics of growth and inequality across nations. Due to lack of data, these interdependencies have not been extensively studied in the economics literature. This Chapter takes advantage of the availability of rich panel data on the mobility of talented football players, and the performances of national leagues and teams to quantify the effect of a "globalization" shock, the 1995 Bosman rule, on global efficiency and cross-country inequality in football.(ECON 3) -- UCL, 201
FIGHTING POVERTY AND CHILD MALNUTRITION: ON THE DESIGN OF FOREIGN AID POLICIES
No full textThis paper investigates how the different food aid programs affect economic development via their effect on the parental trade-off between the number of children and the investment in each child's human capital. This is done in an OLG framework where parents decide on the number of children and the nutrition and secondary schooling of each child. Primary schooling is mandatory. Providing school meals locks countries with no children attending secondary schooling into poverty by reducing the private (nutrition) cost per child. In countries where parents find it optimal to enroll children in secondary schooling, food aid increases the marginal benefit of schooling. Consequently, school feeding programs are conducive to economic development in these countries. If food aid is in the form of a food price subsidy, we show that child nutrition and thus children's human capital increase unambiguously. Although fertility and schooling are not directly affected, a sufficiently high subsidy rate will induce parents to begin to enroll children into secondary schooling by the assumed complementarity between nutrition and schooling in the human capital production function. If the food aid program provides a fixed amount of food per child, this decreases the marginal benefit of parental nutritional investments; therefore, it leads to higher fertility and to lower total provision of nutrition per child.</jats:p
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