1,720,993 research outputs found
Dealing with the coffee crisis in Central America - impacts and strategies
Full text linkCurrent coffee prices are at record lows and below the cost of production for many producers in Central America. Moreover, the coffee crisis is structural, and changes in supply and demand do not indicate a quick recovery of prices. So, coffee producers in Central America are facing new challenges-as are coffee laborers, coffee exporters, and others linked to the coffee sector. Coffee plays a major economic role in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. The coffee crisis is actually part of a broader rural crisis caused by weather shocks (such as Hurricane Mitch and droughts), low international agricultural commodity prices, and the global recession. These challenges call for new strategies for Central American countries aimed at broad-based sustainable development of their rural economies. The authors deal with the impact of the coffee crisis and strategies to deal with it. They include an analysis of the international coffee situation and country-specific analyses. The authors explore options and constraints for increased competitiveness and diversification, and discuss social, environmental, and institutional dimensions of the crisis. The authors conclude that there are specific solutions that can be pursued for the coffee sector. Some are already being applied, but more can be done in a more systematic way. Also, there is a need for safety nets to deal with the short-term impact of the crisis. Longer-term solutions are to be found in increased competitiveness and diversification in the context of broad-based sustainable rural economic development.Crops&Crop Management Systems,Environmental Economics&Policies,Labor Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Markets and Market Access,Crops&Crop Management Systems,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Access to Markets,Markets and Market Access
Commodity risk management and development
Full text linkIn 1995, 57 countries depended on three commodities for more than half their exports, reports UNCTAD. And commodities, fuels, grains, and oilseeds are important imports for several countries. The notorious volatility of commodity prices is a major source of instability and uncertainty in commodity-dependent countries, affecting governments, producers (farmers), traders, processors, and financial institutions. Further, commodity price instability has a negative impact on economic growth, income distribution, and poverty alleviation. Early attempts to deal with commodity price volatility relied on buffer stocks, buffer funds, government intervention in commodity markets, and international commodity agreements to stabilize prices. These were largely unsuccessful--sometimes spectacularly so. Buffer funds went bankrupt, commodity agreements were suspended, buffer stocks proved ineffective, and government intervention was both costlyand ineffective. As the poor performance of such stabilization schemes became more evident, academics and policymakers began distinguishing between programs that tried to alter price distribution (domestically or internationally) and programs that used market-based approaches for dealing with market uncertainty. This change in approach coincided with a significant rise in the use of market-based commodity risk management instruments--aided by the liberalization of markets, the lowering of trade and capital control barriers, and the globalization of commodity markets. by the mid-1990s, several governments, state companies, and private sector participants began using commodity derivatives markets to hedge their commodity price risks. Participation in those markets is growing, but important barriers to access remain including counterparty risk, problems small groups (such as farmers) have aggregating risks, basis risks (no correlation of local and international prices), no local reference prices, low liquidity, no derivatives markets for certain products, and low levels of know-how. International institutions, local governments, and the private sector could facilitate developing countries access to derivatives markets and the use of risk management tools to solve public sector problems.Economic Theory&Research,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Environmental Economics&Policies,Markets and Market Access,Labor Policies,Health Economics&Finance,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Environmental Economics&Policies,Access to Markets,Markets and Market Access
Reforming Cote d'Ivoire's cocoa marketing and pricing system
Full text linkCote d'Ivoire has historically taxed cocoa producers. Market reforms over the past 10 years have somewhat succeeded in making domestic and foreign marketing more transparent and competitive. But they have not done much to raise producer prices in real terms or as a share of the FOB (free on board) price. Maintaining fixed producer prices and marketing costs and margins has encouraged rent-seeking and led to efficiency losses. New reform will fully liberalize the country's export marketing system by eliminating public management of exports. This means the end of mandatory export authorization, of public forward sales, and of fixed minimum producer prices and marketing margins. The new reform is expected to improve producers'incomes. The authors find that the benefits from the new reform (in terms of lower implicit taxes, lower marketing costs and margins, and higher producer prices) will outweigh the costs from eliminating public forward sales and fixed producer prices. Results from a general equilibrium model indicate that reducing export taxes would have a small negative effect on aggregate income but would improve income distribution for poorer rural areas. The fact that Cote d'Ivoire has market power in the world cocoa market justifies a higher optimal export tax than the current one. But raising export taxes may eventually reduce its market share and worsen income distribution, at the expense of the poorer rural sector.Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Markets and Market Access,Labor Policies,Consumption,Markets and Market Access,Access to Markets,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies
Does exchange rate volatility hinder export growth? Additional evidence
Full text linkThe authors examine the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade, using and ARCH-in-mean model. The advantages of this statistical approach over earlier approaches is that it provides more efficient coefficient estimates and it prevents the problem of spurious regressions. They applied the model to six countries, estimating both bilateral and aggregate exports. The results led to the hypothesis that the impact of exchange rate volatility may be influenced by the invoicing of exports. Also, one can argue that the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade is overstated, for the following reasons: exchange rate volatility does not measure the added riskiness of a firm's portfolio;exchange rates can provide a natural hedge in a firm's portfolio; exchange rates may be negatively correlated with each other or with the firm's other assets; and finally, the use of forward markets can provide a useful short-term hedge.Economic Stabilization,Environmental Economics&Policies,Macroeconomic Management,Fiscal&Monetary Policy,Economic Theory&Research
Oil price instability, hedging, and an oil stabilization fund : the case of Venezuela
Full text linkThe Venezuelan government and PDVSA (Venezuela's state oil companies) are both exposed to oil price instability. Given the existing tax structure, PDVSA has a higher exposure than the government, especially when prices drop below $18-20 a barrel. The authors show that the volatility of prices for crude oil is higher (but not significant) than the volatility of prices for refined oil products. And both prices are highly correlated. So, there is not much strength to the argument that Venezuela, being now mainly an exporter of refined products, faces less volatility than when it was exporting mainly crude oil. The basis risk for hedging Venezuelan crude oil was founded to be higher than for other crudes of comparable quality in the region. One explanation could be the pricing policies Venezuela follows, which leads Venezuelan crude oil prices to deviate for long periods from international prices. The basis risk in Venezuelan refined products is much lower and at acceptable levels for risk management. The issue of liquidity is concentrated in contracts for periods of less than a year. For products, the liquidity is concentrated in the nearest 4-5 months. So, for short-term hedges (6-9 months ahead), there is sufficient liquidity for Venezuela to hedge a substantial part of its exports. For longer-term hedges, the over-the-counter market is the more appropriate vehicle. In either case, it will not usually be the case that all production or exports should be hedged. The authors also examined the issue of an oil stabilization fund. For an oil stabilization fund to be effective several preconditions must be met. Most notably: oil prices should not follow a random walk; financial markets are incomplete; and there are large adjustment costs. These conditions do likely apply in Venezuela. Venezuela's best strategy would be to remove as much short-term oil price risk as possible by using short-dated hedging instruments (such as futures, options, or short-dated swaps) and to also do some longer term hedging (using mainly over-the-counter options and long-dated swaps). They also find that an oil stabilization fund should be complemented by using market-based risk management tools. The oil stabilization fund could then be used to manage any remaining interperiod oil price risk to the extent considered necessary.Markets and Market Access,Environmental Economics&Policies,Oil Refining&Gas Industry,Energy and Environment,Energy Demand
How integrated are tropical timber markets?
Full text linkThe tropical timber market is characterized by multiple species, multiple products, and regional patterns of trade and production. In such a market, finding a representative price is a difficult and perhaps an irrelevant task. So Varangis conducted tests to see whether prices from different species, products, and regions move together, at least in the long run. If they do, the use of a representative price may be appropriate. The analysis could also be seen as a test of whether the Asian and African/European markets are interdependent.Environmental Economics&Policies,Silviculture,Access to Markets,Markets and Market Access,Economic Theory&Research
The use of New York cotton futures contracts to hedge cotton price risk in developing countries
Full text linkCotton exports account for a significant share of commodity exports for some developing countries, especially in West Africa and Central Asia. In these countries, dependency on cotton for export revenues has increased in the past 20 years. These countries therefore have a high exposure to cotton price volatility. Cotton-producing developing countries and economies in transition make little use of hedging mechanisms to reduce risk from the volatility of cotton export revenues. Countries in Francophone West Africa use forward sales to hedge but only for a small share of the crop. These countries could use cotton futures and options contracts to hedge against short- to medium-term price volatility, making cotton export revenues more predictable. Cotton futures and options contracts could also make cotton-related commercial transactions more flexible. (Futures could be sold when there are no buyers in the physical market, for example.) In West Africa, futures and options could complement the existing system of forward sales. The authors examine the feasibility of using New York cotton futures and options contracts as hedging instruments. They base their analysis on a portfolio selection problem in which the hedger selects the optimal proportions of unhedged and hedged output to minimize risk. The results suggest that despite the existence of relatively high basis risk (that is, a relatively low correlation between spot and future prices), hedging reduces cotton price volatility by 30 to 70 percent. Moreover, for all varieties of cotton examined, the hedge ratio (the percentage of exports hedged) was below one. Using a hedge ratio of one (naive hedge), at times, increases rather than decreases risk. The results also show that hedging, while reducing risk, also reduces expected returns. Attitudes toward risk that is, the degree of risk aversion - determine how much of this risk-return tradeoff is acceptable. For a risk-averse agent, the main benefit of hedging lies in risk reduction rather than in the potential for increased returns.Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Environmental Economics&Policies,Non Bank Financial Institutions,Financial Intermediation,Insurance Law
Price stabilization for raw jute in Bangladesh
Full text linkFluctuating prices for raw jute have been viewed as contributing to economic problems in the jute subsector. Price fluctuations were thought to reduce the jute farmers'welfare and there has been concern about the costs of parastatals'stocking operations in attempts to stabilize jute prices and incomes. The authors examine these fluctuations and analyze policies that might reduce them. They find that price fluctuations for raw jute reduce farmers'welfare only slightly because farmers'activities are typically diversified and jute's share in total income is small. Although stocking operations by the parastatals contribute to stability in prices and real income, they have been extremely costly and have crowded out private stocking. The authors contend that if the parastatals had refrained from ad hoc stocking and if the private sector had stocked efficiently, jute prices and incomes would have been just as stable - and at no cost. They argue that the Bangladeshi jute market should be free of government intervention and that a a market-based credit system that allows efficient stockholding behavior by the private sector should be established. They also found that improving the flow of market information to farmers and greater price responsiveness by jute mills to raw jute purchases would significantly improve the stability of raw jute prices and incomes. Having more information available would also make private stocking operations more efficient.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Crops&Crop Management Systems,Access to Markets,Markets and Market Access
Primary commodity prices and macroeconomic variables : a long run relationship
Full text linkIn recent years, fluctuations in such macroeconomic variables as interest rates and exchange rates appear to have significantly affected primary commodity prices. This paper studies the relationship between commodity prices and various macroeconomic variables. It focuses particularly on interest rates because of the important role they play in the portfolio adjustment model, in which investors move between commodities, bonds and money as interest rates change. The paper concludes that there is a long run quantifiable relationship between real interest rates and real commodity prices, but not between real commodity prices and either consumer prices or the money supply. Commodity prices in nominal terms strongly affect consumer prices but not the reverse - and some groups of commodity prices can be reliable indicators of movements in consumerprices. Changes in the money supply affect commodity prices, but not the reverse, and the relationship is not quantifiable.Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Economic Theory&Research,Markets and Market Access,Access to Markets,Environmental Economics&Policies
Coffee pricing policies in the Dominican Republic
Full text linkCoffee is an important crop for the Dominican Republic, accounting for an average of 11 percent of total exports by value during 1982-84. But for the last 10 years, coffee yields have been low, and production and exports stagnant. If current policies for coffee continue, production and exports are likely to decline even further and the Dominican Republic could have trouble filling its export quota under the International Coffee Agreement (ICA). This paper sees the high tax on coffee exports as the main disincentive to growth in coffee production. With a small econometric model of the Dominican coffee sector, the paper simulates the impact of export tax reductions under different assumptions about the operation of the ICA export quota system. The model suggests that if the ICA is continued, an export tax cut of 52 percent would produce the desired production level (to meet projected quota and nonquota export demand) by 2000. If the ICA is discontinued, the export tax must be eliminated to achieve the same production level.Access to Markets,Crops&Crop Management Systems,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Markets and Market Access
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