6 research outputs found
Classification of Intersystem Accidents in Infrastructure-Complex Territories
Get PDFUrbanisation led to the establishment of infrastructure-complex territories (ICTs). The growing interaction between critical infrastructures in such territories, combined with an increase in the frequency and scale of natural disasters, caused a surge in intersystem accidents (ISA). ISAs are characterised by cascading processes and catastrophic consequences for regional socio-economic development, since they affect both the critical infrastructure and environment. The paper aims to classify intersystem accidents in infrastructure-complex territories, as well as to assess the adaptive resilience of these areas to external influences. An examination of available statistics on domestic and foreign intersystem accidents demonstrated the importance of the issue and allowed us to identify common features of ISAs. The research analysed various approaches to the classification of territories and their adaptive resilience to external influences, showing that the existing classifications mostly do not consider infrastructure-complex territories and the possibility of intersystem accidents. Based on the analysis of statistical data and simulation of cascade failures and emergencies, the article proposes a new approach to the classification of intersystem accidents in infrastructure-complex territories. The scale of economic and social consequences, location of the accident, structure of the development of emergency processes, and other classification features were used. The proposed classification will help simulate emergencies, develop methods for assessing the consequences and resistance of infrastructure-complex territories to external influences, and, subsequently, increase adaptive resilience and economic efficiency of regional development. Further research will be aimed at predicting the development of ISAs and assessing the resulting damage in accordance with the proposed classification
Classification of Intersystem Accidents in Infrastructure-Complex Territories
Get PDFUrbanisation led to the establishment of infrastructure-complex territories (ICTs). The growing interaction between critical infrastructures in such territories, combined with an increase in the frequency and scale of natural disasters, caused a surge in intersystem accidents (ISA). ISAs are characterised by cascading processes and catastrophic consequences for regional socio-economic development, since they affect both the critical infrastructure and environment. The paper aims to classify intersystem accidents in infrastructure-complex territories, as well as to assess the adaptive resilience of these areas to external influences. An examination of available statistics on domestic and foreign intersystem accidents demonstrated the importance of the issue and allowed us to identify common features of ISAs. The research analysed various approaches to the classification of territories and their adaptive resilience to external influences, showing that the existing classifications mostly do not consider infrastructure-complex territories and the possibility of intersystem accidents. Based on the analysis of statistical data and simulation of cascade failures and emergencies, the article proposes a new approach to the classification of intersystem accidents in infrastructure-complex territories. The scale of economic and social consequences, location of the accident, structure of the development of emergency processes, and other classification features were used. The proposed classification will help simulate emergencies, develop methods for assessing the consequences and resistance of infrastructure-complex territories to external influences, and, subsequently, increase adaptive resilience and economic efficiency of regional development. Further research will be aimed at predicting the development of ISAs and assessing the resulting damage in accordance with the proposed classification
Prediction of Repair Work Duration for Gas Transport Systems Based on Small Data Samples
Get PDFPrediction of the duration of a repair and maintenance project of a gas transport system is an important part of planning activities. There exist numerous sources of uncertainties that may result in time overruns possibly leading to multiple negative consequences. Our experience in planning this work suggests that accepting the stochastic nature of the project duration is a constructive step towards the preparedness to contingencies and defining penalties for repair companies. To support this approach, one needs to construct probability distributions of the durations of the projects. To address the issue of the scarcity of observed data, we suggest using a bootstrap resampling procedure. Gram-Charlier functions and order statistics are employed to approximate the distributions. It is demonstrated how to derive them for a separate repair project and a larger project consisting of a number of concurrently running subprojects. Following this, guidance is provided on how to decide about what duration should define the deadline for completion of the whole work. A simple example is provided
Problems of the Assessment of Economic Damage Caused by Power Supply Interruption
No full textThe article is devoted to the development of the methods of the assessment of damage caused by an emergency interruption in the electrical supply of industrial consumers. The purpose of the study is to substantiate the structure of direct and indirect damage and to develop an adequate technique for the quantitative assessment of a full damage caused by the interrupt in electrical supply of various groups of industrial consumers. The analysis of domestic and foreign methodological approaches to the assessment of the damage caused by breaks in an electrical supply allowed to substantiate the structure of a full damage. For this purpose, we propose three groups of techniques. The first method is based on the standard approach. We apply it for a detailed account of the components of damage (real loss, social and economic losses, ecological damage, indirect losses) with reference to the occurred failure. The second technique is based on the use of three groups of typical scenarios of the consequences of an emergency interruption in power supply. These scenarios have resulted from the analysis of the regulation documentation and statistical data on the basic groups of industrial consumers (on the example of gas supply system, these are production facilities, transport, storage, reprocessing and support facilities). The third method is based on the specific indicators of unplanned coasts depending on the size of the disconnected capacity, an interruption duration and the duration of the restoration of electricity. The second and third techniques are developed to forecast the damage and to substantiate the efficiency of measures for improving the reliability of the electrical supply of the industrial consumers. The article includes the results of the assessment of full damage caused by the interruption in the electrical supply through the developed techniques on the example of the gas industry objects. The comparison of the results of the assessment with the real values of damages from the occurred failures would suggest the adequacy of the developed techniques. The appropriate account of the economic damage caused by breaks in the electrical supply would substantiate the measures making energy supplies for the safe and reliable. The reliability of power is the fundamental factor for the economic stability of the country and its regions
State forest management reforms in three ex-Soviet republics
Get PDFIn the context of the radical changes that East European countries have recently gone through, it is of general interest to study what institutional and organisational setups for forest management were selected in the individual countries, and why. The purpose of this thesis is to examine what reforms took place in the State forest management of Ukraine, the Russian Federation and Latvia during their first decade of independence and the underlying reasons for these reforms. In order to analyse the underlying reasons for reforms, a number of explanatory models were formulated, mostly based on Public Choice theory and theories on institutional development. By testing these models - Interest Group Struggles, Political Necessity, Historical Experience, Path Dependency and Influence of Clientelism and Black Economy, on the forest sector reforms, the applicability of each model on each reform was evaluated. This way the most likely motives for the reforms could be described. The three countries of the study were selected because of observed divergence in forest sector reforms during the first decade of transition. The results show that all the explanatory models can be used to explain the reform process, but on individual reforms, one or two models usually lead to a more likely explanation of the process observed. Looking on individual models and beginning with Russia, some key reforms in the forest sector were initiated because they were part of the Government's general reform agenda. Such reforms, when they led to reforms in the forest sector, have here been labelled Political Necessities, implying that the major decisions generated outside of the sector. The main such reforms in Russia, originated from the decision to privatise forest industry but to keep forest State-owned. Most of the other reforms of the period were consequences of this general decision but additional understanding of them was shown to be provided by using the other models of the study. Interest group struggles, particularly between forest management and forest industry organisations, but also between different levels of Government, were intensive during the studied period, and many of the reforms studied were resulting compromises. The analyses demonstrate that the most fundamental Russian forest sector reforms during the studied period were mostly formed already in the end of the Soviet period or in the very first years of the Russian Federation. It can be questioned whether this was not premature. In Ukraine, the reform process in society as a whole slowed down considerably after only few years of independence and in many sectors, the transition to market economy was not complete. One can argue that the Ukraine State Forest Committee as an organisation was an example of this, given that it continued to control the majority of Ukraine’s forests, enjoyed a close-to monopoly on final fellings and came to control a large part of Ukraine’s forest industry. The processes that led to this situation were strongly influenced by Interest Group Struggles and Path Dependency. As for Latvia, most striking is the breech with the Soviet-era institutional set-up and thus also with Path Dependency. In a first phase of reform in 1990-1995, several similarities between Latvian and Russian reforms can be found, although the Latvian reforms went further as a result of massive forest restitution. In a second phase however, Latvia created a new institutional and organisational setup, more similar to the Scandinavian countries. The models that best explain Latvian forest sector reform are Political Necessity and Historic Experience, the latter because Latvian institutions from the period before World War II were frequently used as models for reform. By the end of the studied period, the main forest institutions and organisations demonstrated practically no resemblance to what had existed prior to 1990. In this respect, Latvia differed very clearly from Russia and Ukraine. The differences between Latvia as compared to Ukraine and Russia have many explanations, as demonstrated by application of the different models on the individual reforms. On a larger scale however, the differences appear tied to whether reforms emanated from within or outside the State forest management and State forest industry organisations. Latvian Government decisions in 1988-91 on land restitution to pre-war owners and its 1995 Concept of Public Administration Reform, strongly influenced reforms in the forest sector. Further, Latvian openness to international support in policy and institutional development, and the fact that a young generation took over leadership roles in the sector, were also important factors. Also, after 1997, views of other interested parties were systematically integrated in the Latvian reform process. In neither Russia nor Ukraine did forest privatisation take place. Forest policy, legislation and State forest management questions were during most of the studied period largely determined by the State forest management organisation, but under steady criticism from adjacent interests. This atmosphere fostered a marked conservatism. Such fundamental changes that many transition countries' forest sectors went through during the past two decades are highly unusual events, and it is important that the experiences are collected while still in the active memory of the people that participated. This kind of studies can be of help in future analyses of other countries' forest sectors. Particularly, it is the hope of the author that experience from the East European transition period reforms will be utilised in planning future forest sector reforms in other countries, notably in Western Europe
Abstracts of The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium
Get PDFThis abstract book contains abstracts of the various research ideas presented at The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium.The RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium served as a perfect venue for practitioners, engineers, researchers, scientists, managers and decision-makers from all over the world to exchange ideas and technology about the latest innovation developments dealing with risk minimization
