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    Hip fracture risk assessment: Artificial neural network outperforms conditional logistic regression in an age- and sex-matched case control study

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    Copyright @ 2013 Tseng et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Background - Osteoporotic hip fractures with a significant morbidity and excess mortality among the elderly have imposed huge health and economic burdens on societies worldwide. In this age- and sex-matched case control study, we examined the risk factors of hip fractures and assessed the fracture risk by conditional logistic regression (CLR) and ensemble artificial neural network (ANN). The performances of these two classifiers were compared. Methods - The study population consisted of 217 pairs (149 women and 68 men) of fractures and controls with an age older than 60 years. All the participants were interviewed with the same standardized questionnaire including questions on 66 risk factors in 12 categories. Univariate CLR analysis was initially conducted to examine the unadjusted odds ratio of all potential risk factors. The significant risk factors were then tested by multivariate analyses. For fracture risk assessment, the participants were randomly divided into modeling and testing datasets for 10-fold cross validation analyses. The predicting models built by CLR and ANN in modeling datasets were applied to testing datasets for generalization study. The performances, including discrimination and calibration, were compared with non-parametric Wilcoxon tests. Results - In univariate CLR analyses, 16 variables achieved significant level, and six of them remained significant in multivariate analyses, including low T score, low BMI, low MMSE score, milk intake, walking difficulty, and significant fall at home. For discrimination, ANN outperformed CLR in both 16- and 6-variable analyses in modeling and testing datasets (p?<?0.005). For calibration, ANN outperformed CLR only in 16-variable analyses in modeling and testing datasets (p?=?0.013 and 0.047, respectively). Conclusions - The risk factors of hip fracture are more personal than environmental. With adequate model construction, ANN may outperform CLR in both discrimination and calibration. ANN seems to have not been developed to its full potential and efforts should be made to improve its performance.National Health Research Institutes in Taiwa

    Will biological agents supplant systemic glucocorticoids as the first-line treatment for thyroid-associated ophthalmopathy?

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    In this article, the two authors present their opposing points of view concerning the likelihood that glucocorticoids will be replaced by newly developed biological agents in the treatment of active, moderate-to-severe thyroid-associated ophthalmopathy (TAO). TAO is a vexing, disfiguring and potentially blinding autoimmune manifestation of thyroid autoimmunity. One author expresses the opinion that steroids are nonspecific, frequently fail to improve the disease and can cause sometimes serious side effects. He suggests that glucocorticoids should be replaced as soon as possible by more specific and safer drugs, once they become available. The most promising of these are biological agents. The other author argues that glucocorticoids are proven effective and are unlikely to be replaced by biologicals. He reasons that while they may not uniformly result in optimal benefit, they have been proven effective in many reports. He remains open minded about alternative therapies such as biologicals but remains skeptical that they will replace steroids as the first-line therapy for active, moderate-to-severe TAO without head-to-head comparative clinical trials demonstrating superiority. Despite these very different points of view, both authors are optimistic about the availability of improved medical therapies for TAO, either as single agents or in combination. Further, both agree that better treatment options are needed to improve the care of our patients with active moderate-to-severe TAO

    The value of silence

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    This is an electronic version of the article published in Theatre Journal, 54(1):85-94, 2002 March. The published article is available at http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/theatre_journal/v054/54.1eng.pdfEng, David L.The Value of Silence.Theatre Journal, 54,(1):85-94, 2002.DOI: 10.1353/tj.2002.000
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