1,721,141 research outputs found
Detecting fingerprints of landslide drivers: A MaxEnt model
No full textLandslides are important geomorphic events that sculpt river basins by eroding hillslopes and providing sediments to coastal areas. However, landslides are also hazardous events for socio-ecological systems in river basins causing enormous biodiversity, economic, and social impacts. We propose a probabilistic spatially explicit model for the prediction of landslide patterns based on a maximum entropy principle model (MAXENT). The model inputs are the centers of mass of historical landslides and environmental variables at the basin scale. The model has only three parameters requiring calibration: the threshold for the network extraction, the trade-off factor between model complexity and accuracy, and the threshold of landslide susceptibility. The calibration on a subset of observations detects the environmental drivers and their relative importance for landslides. We employ the model in the Arno basin, Italy, selected because of its widespread landslide dynamics and the large availability of landslide observations. The model reproduces the size distribution and location of over 27,500 historical landslides for the Arno basin with an accuracy of 86% obtained from the variable-landslide inference on about 37% of observed landslides. Future landslide patterns are predicted for 17 A1B and A2 rainfall scenarios and for a multimodel ensemble from 2000 to 2100. We show that potential landslide hazard is strongly correlated with variation in the 12 and 48 h rainfall with a return time of 10 years. As the climate gets wetter, the average probability of landslides gets higher which is shown by the landslide size distribution. Hence, the landslide size distribution is a fingerprint of the geomorphic effectiveness of rainfall as a function of climate change. MAXENT is proposed as a parsimonious model for the prediction of landslide patterns with respect to more complex models. The need for very accurately sampled and delineated landslides is lower than for other prediction models. Moreover, the model informs about the drivers of landslides and their relative importance without assumptions on the main triggering factors. This is important to inform monitoring of environmental variables. Our modeling approach can enhance the planning of socio-ecological systems in river basins by improving the accuracy of landslide prediction in space and time. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved
Scoping the potential usefulness of seasonal climate forecasts for solar power management
No full textSolar photovoltaic energy is widespread worldwide and particularly in Europe, which became in 2016 the first region in the world to pass the 100 GW of installed capacity. As with all the renewable energy sources, for an effective management of solar power, it is essential to have reliable and accurate information about weather/climate conditions that affect the production of electricity. Operations in the solar energy industry are normally based on daily (or intra-daily) forecasts. Nevertheless, information about the incoming months can be relevant to support and inform operational and maintenance activities. This paper discusses a methodology to assess whether a seasonal climate forecast can provide a useful prediction for a specific sector, in this paper the European solar power industry. After evaluating the quality of the forecasts in providing probabilistic information for solar radiation, we describe how to assess their potential usefulness for a generic user by proposing an approach that takes into account not only their accuracy but also other potentially relevant factors. This approach is called index of opportunity and is then illustrated by presenting an example for the European solar power sector. The index of opportunity provides indications about where and when seasonal climate forecasts can benefit the decision-making in the photovoltaic sector. Even more importantly, it suggests an approach on how to evaluate their usefulness for the user's decision-making. This approach has the advantage of not limiting the definition of the usefulness only to the quality of the forecasts but rather considering, in an explicit way, all the factors that must be combined with the forecast's quality to define what is useful or not for the user
Effects of genotype, location and baking on the phenolic content and some antioxidant properties of cereal species.
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Genetic diversity of entomopathogenic nematodes from Italy based on the mitochondrial COI
No full textGenetic diversity of entomopathogenic nematodes from Italy based on the mitochondrial CO
"NON CI SIAMO PERSI, STIAMO CERCANDO STRADE ALTERNATIVE COME PIONIERI":LA MATEMATICA PER ORIENTARSI.
No full textMolecular Characterization and Functional Analysis of the Hb-hsp90-1 Gene in Relation to Temperature Changes in Heterorhabditis bacteriophora
Full text linkUnderstanding how entomopathogenic nematodes respond to temperature changes and have adapted to the local environment is crucial to improve their potential as biocontrol agents. In order to improve understanding of Heterorhabditis bacteriophora’s potential adaptability to future climate changes, full-length cDNA and the corresponding gene of heat shock protein 90 (Hsp90) were isolated and fully characterized. The reproductive potential of the Apulian strain of H. bacteriophora increased when the temperature rose from 23 to 30°C, but no reproduction was found at 12°C. Expression analyses revealed that Hb-hsp90-1 was differentially expressed in Infective Juveniles (IJs) and adults (hermaphrodites, females and males). Up-regulation of Hb-hsp90-1 was higher during the recovery process in Galleria mellonella larvae than adults, thus confirming the protective role of Hb-hsp90-1 in coping with the host environment. Silencing of Hb-hsp90-1 resulted in a significant reduction (76%) in the expression level. Silenced IJs took longer than untreated nematodes to infect G. mellonella, showing that Hb-hsp90-1 could be also involved in chemosensation. Furthermore, the number of adults and IJs recovered from G. mellonella infected with silenced nematodes and incubated at 30°C was higher than that obtained from G. mellonella infected with untreated nematodes. These data confirm the crucial role of Hb-hsp90-1 allowing acclimation to increased temperatures and modulation of the recovery process
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