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中国人民銀行の流動性供給体制の変容と国家主義的金融体制の構造 : 政府系金融機関の対内・対外投融資を通じて
Get PDF今日、中国の金融経済は内憂外患に面している。内憂とは、いうまでもなく不動産バブル崩壊である。外患とは、「一帯一路」との関わりで、これまで投融資を重ねてきた対外債権の多くが不良債権と化していることである。これら国内外に広がる債権債務は、対内面では地方政府債務と国債に、対外面では政策性銀行が発行する債券とその最大の保有者である四大国有商業銀行との関係に集約されつつある。こうした金融の証券化に伴い、中国人民銀行は債券担保の公開市場操作を行うようになり、金融の「自由化」も進んでいった。そして最も重要なことは、中国の対内・対外投融資の受け皿となっている四大国有商業銀行の最大の出資者が、国務院直轄の汇金である点である。本稿は、この汇金こそが、中国の国家主義的金融体制の中核であること、そして事実上不良債権化した国内外の債券が今や中国人民銀行に集約され、その金融調節を拘束しつつあることを明らかにしていく。 China’s financial economy is facing both internal and external problems. The internal one is the collapse of the real estate bubble. The domestic debt is increasingly consolidated into both local and national government bonds. The external one has been accrued to China’s foreign investment in connection with the “Belt and Road Initiative”. This is its external claim, though which becomes non-performing loan. Much of the external claim is held by the two policy banks, which have issued bonds. Besides, the largest holders of both local and national government bonds and these policy banks’ bonds are the four state-owned banks. Along with such securitization of finance, the People's Bank of China has begun to conduct open market operations for collateralizing the bond, which both local and national government and the policy banks have issued. The most important thing is that the largest shareholder of the four state-owned banks is Huijin, which is directly under the State Council. This paper clarifies that Huijin is the core of China’s state-central financial system, and that domestic and foreign non-performing loans are now accumulated in the People’s Bank of China and come to constrain its daily financial adjustment policy
2015年8月人民元為替相場下落以降の上海・香港金融市場の新展開 : 債務繰り延べと外資導入
Get PDFChinese dream for internationalization of Renminbi, initiating from June 2009, has seemed facing difficulties since the devaluation of Renminbi of Aug. 2017. This paper will focus on the recent development of financial and exchange markets of both Hong Kong and Shanghai since the devaluation. The paper will be divided into two parts. The first part is to examine influence of the devaluation on internationalization of Renminbi, centered in Hong Kong financial market, and consider a set of stabilization policies taken by People’s Bank of China in financial and foreign exchange markets in Shanghai. The second is to analyze new policy for opening up financial and capital market in Shanghai and for introducing foreign capital via Hong Kong. Due to consecutive policies for boosting economy, ailing state‒owned enterprises, property bubble and huge unregulated money flocking within China, it has accumulated almost three time as much debt as its GDP. To finance its mounting debt, China is finding a new way out of its difficulties in Hong Kong, and approaching to new oversea financial resource beyond it. Internationalization of Renminbi, is it a conduit for China to appear as net debtor country in international market
中国・人民元「国際化」戦略とその現状と展望 : 中国人民大学・国際貨幣研究所の論説から
Get PDF本稿は、人民元「国際化」策に関する中国政府のThink Tankとしての役割を担っている中国人民大学経済学部財政金融学院・国际货币研究所（国際貨幣研究所）の機関誌から幾つかの論説を取り上げ、現代の米ドル中心の国際通貨システム＝「米ドル本位制」に対する認識と人民元「国際化」戦略の意図・目標を明らかにすると共に、2015年8月の人民元為替相場切り下げ以降の人民元「国際化」の現状と展望について紹介する。 The purpose of this research note is twofold: to take up some views of International Monetary Institute, the School of Finance, Faculty of Economics, Renmin University of China, on so- called ‘the US Dollar Standard System', internationalization of renminbi as alternative world economic strategy of China; to show stalled situation of internationalization of renminbi after the depreciating exchange rate in Aug. 2015, and future prospect
中国「一帯一路」戦略下における貿易・投資の現状について : 対ASEAN経済を中心に
Get PDF2014年11月、中国の世界経済戦略「一帯一路」構想が発表された。構想実現には紆余曲折が予想されるものの、中国と諸国間の経済関係について明らかにしておく必要は有用であろう。本稿は、特に東アジア地域における中国の貿易・投資の現状について分析し、「一帯一路」構想の今後の展望を検討していくための準備作業としたい。China declared ‘One Belt, One Road initiativeʼ, composed of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road initiative, as its new world economic strategy at APEC summit in Beijing, China, in Nov. 2014. This research paper focuses on economic relation of China with East Asian countries in terms of international trade, security investment, and foreign direct investment
アメリカ・トランプ政権の対中経済戦略について : 貿易・投資・国際金融のデカップリングは可能か
Get PDFアメリカ・トランプ政権下の2017年－2020年、米中経済摩擦は激化の一途を辿ってきた。本研究ノートでは、2000年10月に米議会内に設置されたThe US-China Economic and Security Review Commission の年次報告書及びその他文書に着目し、貿易・投資・国際金融の面から米中経済関係の現状に接近する。 The US- China economic conflict has got fiercely under the Trump administration for the past four years. This research paper is to focus on the economic relation between both countries in terms of trade, investment, and international finance. Especially, it takes up annual reports to the congress and other analytical papers issued from the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission which was created in Oct. 2000. Is it possible that the US-China economic relation can be de-coupled as the Trump administration envisaged
中国・人民元「国際化」と現代の国際通貨システム : 世界経済秩序のパラダイム転換か
Get PDFIn July 2015, Shanghai stock exchange of China faced serious collapse, and the People’s Bank of China （PBoC） announced in the middle of August that Chinese Renminb（i RMB） exchange rate against the US dollar was depreciated by 2. 0%. On depreciating RMB exchange rate from August 2015, financial conditions of China in general gradually came to be tightened, regardless the government’s effort to relax a set of regulations restraining increasing prices of property under speculation. To break through stressed financial conditions of China, the PBOC has set up Bond Connect between Hong Kong and Shanghai in May 2017, following after Hong Kong － Shanghai Connect in Nov. 2014 and Hong Kong － Shenzhen Connect in Dec. 2016. All of these steps are designed to open up its financial and capital market to foreign investor; that’s deregulation of international financial transaction. Depreciating RMB exchange rate and falling down of Shanghai stock price index, however, have kept foreign capital from inflowing into China, contrary to what was expected. Will internationalization of RMB be realized? Will RMB be international currency alternative to the US dollar? In this paper, we will consider possibility of internationalization of RMB, which is the national currency of China with the second largest economy, under the current world economic order,
「米ドル本位制」下、中国・人民元「国際化」の新展開 : 米中経済摩擦とRCEPとの関わりで
Get PDF2021年9月、中国人民銀行は『2021年人民元国際化報告』を発表し、人民元「国際化」が復活していることを強調した。しかし、『同報告書』を読むと、復活したのは人民元建貿易取引ではなく、RQFII、香港と上海・深圳との間のストック・コネクト、そして債券通といった人民元建国内金融資本市場へ外資を導く国際証券投資である。では、なぜ人民元建国際証券投資が拡大したのか？それは、アメリカFRBをはじめ先進諸国中央銀行の超低金利政策によって、中国の証券利回りが相対的に高くなったからである。本論文は、人民銀行の『同報告』を紹介しつつ、2017年アメリカ・トランプ政権成立によってむしろスポットライトを浴びるようになった米中金融合作ともいうべき国際金融関係から人民元「国際化」の現実を明らかにしていく。併せて、20221月に発効するRCEP との係わりで、ASEAN 地域の外国為替取引の現実から、国際決済通貨としての人民元「国際化」の限界について論じていく。In Sept. 2021, Peopleʼs Bank of China (PBoC) published ʻ2021 RMB Internationalization Reportʼ, saying that RMB internationalization bounces back on the trend. Of importance is that, however, the remounting RMBdenominated international transaction has not been driven by trade but by stock and debt through RQFII, Stock Connect, and Bond Connect via Hong Kong. Why has such international security transaction been increasing for the past few years? The reason is that, due to the extremely low interest-low policies taken by FRB, ECB, and BoJ after the world financial crisis of 2008, enormous amount of excess liquidity is searching for investment-opportunity with even a little bit higher yield. Shanghai and Shenzhen financial markets have presented global financial investor with so lucrative chance. With the political conflict between the US and China, which was stirred up under the Trump administration since 2017, what is revealed is impliedly coupled relation, not easily decoupling one, between two super economic giants. This article, while analyzing a new development of RMB internationalization since 2018 with the PBoC report, tries to shed light on reality of foreign exchange market in a few of ASEAN member countries, which come to key constituent countries of RCEP in effect from Jan. 2022. As far as ongoing project is concerned, RMB internationalization does not mean RMB becomes international clearing currency for several years to come
「双循環」とRCEPにおける中国の貿易・投資戦略について : 中国社会科学院世界経済・世界政治研究所国際金融研究センターの所説より
Get PDF2020年10月開催の中国共産党第19期中央委員会第5回全体会議（五中全会）において採択されたいわゆる「双循環」戦略、そして2020年11月に締結されたRCEP（Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement）に関する中国社会科学院世界経済・世界政治研究所国際金融研究センターの二人の研究者の所説について紹介し、中国の将来ビジョンがどのように語られているのか、またそこでの問題は何か示していく。This paper takes up the opinions of two researchers in international finance division, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Science, on both of ‘Dual Circulation’ strategy formulated in the fifth Plenum of the 19th Central Committee of CCP, Oct. 2020, and RCEP (Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) signed in Nov. 2019. We can see from their opinions how the Chinese government views their international economic position under the current international economic order and change it for the future
BRICS諸国の‘脱ドル化’策の現実と中国の対外金融の限界 : 中国は「ドル本位制」下の「最後の貸し手」か
Get PDFコロナ禍とウクライナ危機を契機に、いわゆるBRICS諸国の‘脱ドル化’の試みが報じられている。他方、この間人民元「国際化」と併せて世界から注目されてきた「一帯一路」であるが、これを金融面で担ってた中国の政策性銀行の開発金融は、近年大きな落ち込みを見せている。しかも、2022年春以降の金利引き上げは、AIIBやNDBの開発融資にも影響を与えているようである。本稿は、BRICS諸国のʻ脱ドル化ʼ策の限界について考察し、中国の開発金融の内実については、主にボストン大学の研究チームの成果を参照にしながら、その現実について明らかにしていく。 With the covid-19 coming under control and the outbreak of Ukraine war, ‘De-dollarization’ policies BRICS countries proposed have been reported consecutively. On the other, as the research team of Global Development Policy Center, Boston University, elaborately analyzed China’s development finance, which has been carried out in line with Belt and Road Initiative of China, seems declined in past years. This paper takes up BRICS’s ‘De-dollarization’ policies and China’s development finance, two of which have built China’s international financial policies, and reveals their limit and reality under ‘the US dollar standard system’
中国・国有企業の過剰生産力と激増する債務 : 世界経済への影響と金融システムの「持続可能性」
Get PDF2015年7月、中国の株式市場が大崩落を来たし、翌8月、それまで上昇一辺倒にあった人民元為替相場が一転して下落に転じるや、世界は‘チャイナ・リスク’として事態を認識するようになった。2016年4月には、IMFも中国の過剰生産力と増嵩する企業債務に警鐘を鳴らし、今後中国発のデフレ圧力が世界経済に重くのしかかることに懸念を表明した。また最近では、中国政府自体もこうした懸念を一部認めるようになった。本稿は、世界経済にデフレ圧力を加えている中国の過剰生産力、ハード・ランディングが懸念されるまでに至った中国の金融経済について分析し、中国経済の行く末について考察したい。IMF, in its half a year periodic report, Global Financial Report, published in April 2016, expressed deep concern about economic viability of China, facing deadly overcapacity of SOE and drastically increasing debt, that leads to deflational pressure on the world economy. In this paper, firstly, focusing on international investment position of China, whether the type of crisis East Asian countries faced in 1997 will take place in China will be examined. Then, analyzing economic presence of China in the world economy, whether overcapacity of China's SOE and its mounting debt may come to the worst case of ‘Minsky Moment’ will be argued
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