120 research outputs found
Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Agricultural Prices
No full textExisting empirical evidence on the impact of macroeconomic variables on agriculture remains mixed and inconclusive. This paper re-examines the dynamic relationship between monetary policy variables and agricultural prices using alternative vector autoregression (VAR) type model specifications. Directed acyclic graph theory is proposed as an alternative modeling approach to supplement existing modeling methods. Similar to results in other studies, this study’s findings show that over the time period analyzed (1975–2000), changes to money supply as a monetary policy tool had little or no impact on agricultural prices. The primary macroeconomic policy instrument that affects agricultural prices is the exchange rate, which is shown to be directly linked to interest rate, a source of monetary policy shock.agricultural prices, cointegration, directed acyclic graphs, monetary policy, VAR, Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis,
Robust policy frameworks for strengthening the resilience and sustainability of agri-food global value chains
No full text"Does foreign intellectual property rights protection affect U.S. exports and FDI?"
No full textUsing GMM models on a panel data of fifty-three countries, we examine whether stronger foreign IPR protection stimulates international transactions of U.S. multinational firms. The empirical results suggest that foreign countries that strengthen their IPR protection, especially those with strong imitative ability, can attract more international transactions from U.S. multinational firms.export, FDI, intellectual property rights, GMM
Trade openness and economic growth: is growth export-led or import-led?
No full textMost previous investigations have only focused on the effect of export expansion on economic growth while ignoring the potential growth-enhancing contribution of imports. This article re-examines the relationship between trade and economic growth in Argentina, Colombia, and Peru with emphasis on both the role of exports and imports. Granger causality tests and impulse response functions were used to examine whether growth in trade stimulate economic growth (or vice versa). The results suggest that the singular focus of past studies on exports as the engine of growth may be misleading. Although there is some empirical evidence supporting export-led growth, the empirical support for import-led growth hypothesis is relatively stronger. In some cases, there is also evidence for reverse causality from gross domestic product growth to exports and imports.
Asset storability and hedging effectiveness in commodity futures markets
No full textThis paper examines risk minimization hedging effectiveness for major storable and nonstorable agricultural commodity futures markets. Based on the error correction model - bivariate GARCH frameworks, some evidence is found that the hedging effectiveness is stronger for storable commodities than nonstorable commodities under consideration. The finding illustrates an important difference between storable and nonstorable commodities with regard to their hedging function.
Export-led growth and the Japanese economy: evidence from VAR and directed acyclic graphs
No full textThis paper explores the causal relationship between real exports and GDP growth in Japan using two recently developed causal modelling approaches. Using Japanese time series, the paper employed the augmented VAR methodology developed by Toda and Yamamoto to test for Granger non-causality. Then, a more recently developed technique of directed acyclic graphs (DAG) was also used in providing over-identifying restrictions on the innovations from a vector autoregression (VAR). In contrast to prior analyses, the application of DAG techniques allows for the examination of both contemporaneous and dynamic causal structure of the exports-productivity nexus. The empirical results reveal that the causal path between exports and GDP growth in Japan is bi-directional. Furthermore, other variables such as capital and foreign output are also significant determinants of productivity growth in Japan.
Is the Export-Lead Growth Hypothesis Valid for Canada?
No full textEmpirical evidence linking exports to economic growth has been mixed and inconclusive. This study re-examine the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis for Canada by testing for Granger causality from exports to national output growth using vector error correction models (VECM) and the augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology developed in Toda and Yamamoto (1995). Application of recent developments in time series modeling and the inclusion of relevant variables omitted in previous studies help clarify the contradictory results from prior studies on the Canadian economy. The empirical results suggest that a long-run steady state exists among the model’s six variables and that Granger causal flow is unidirectional from real exports to real GDP
Exports, economic growth and causality in Korea
No full textUsing recent developments in econometric techniques, this article re-examines the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis for Korea over 1963-2001. The Granger-causality tests was based on two testing approaches: vector error correction modelling (VECM) approach outlined in Toda and Philips; and the augmented levels VAR modelling with integrated and cointegrated processes (of arbitrary orders) separately introduced by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and Dolado and Lutkepohl (1996). Empirical evidence from causality tests based on the two alternative approaches indicates that the causal link between real exports and real GDP growth is bi-directional. Additional determinants of growth are also found to be significant.
Effects of shocks on economic development and roles of resilience factors
No full textIn recent decades, the inability to quickly cope with shocks and stressors became perhaps the most serious threats to growth and development, and a matter of concern among development stakeholders. As a result, they are now prioritizing resilience building at individual, household, and community levels. By providing up to date analysis on key missing gaps, this dissertation contributes to the literature explaining the nexus between shocks, resilience, and development, and informs the policy-making process about mitigation of various shocks and stressors. Departing from the usual practice of assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on development outcomes, the first essay investigates the effects of six policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic on the farm and nonfarm incomes of agricultural households using Nigeria as a case study. The roles of endogenous policies such as lockdowns and stay at home orders have hitherto not been addressed in the literature. Essay 1 also examines the roles of factors that provide households with absorptive, adaptive, and transformative resilience capacities during unprecedented shocks. The results suggest that policies that tend to increase family labor availability were beneficial for agricultural households on the short run. In addition, the ability of agricultural households to withstand the adverse effects of the policy responses to the pandemic depends on their land size, wealth level, and degrees of income diversification, involvement in processing activities, and reliance on hired labor. These results suggest that policy responses to a health crisis, specifically containment measures, which are aimed at overall mitigation of adverse impacts, need to consider the impacts on farm viability. Since agriculture is crucial to livelihoods in developing countries, its role may be compromised if policies enacted do not consider the effects on the sector.For sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, the second essay examines the short- and long-term effects of conflicts and droughts on agricultural growth and transformation trajectories using partial and total factor productivities measures as indicators of these processes. It also introduces an alternative approach to measuring resilience based on the timeframe in which the effects of a shock remain significant. The results suggest instantaneous and persistent disruptive effects of conflicts and droughts on the structure of agricultural production, which occur mainly through effects on quality and quantity of input use. Additionally, the overall structure of agricultural production is characterized by greater resilience to conflicts than droughts. By tying shocks to productivity, resilience and agricultural production in a temporal way, this study advances the literature in all three areas. Because productivity growth and agricultural transformation are cornerstone development strategies in SSA, these results are of high value to development stakeholders.In the third essay, the Nigerian experience with conflicts is used to study their short- and long-term effects on individuals' type of work (namely, family farm enterprises, family non-farm enterprises, and employment with others), and their effects on sectoral employment choices (namely, employment in agriculture, manufacturing, or services). For this purpose, the Nigerian General Household Survey is spatially joined with data on the location of conflict events and their associated number of fatalities. The findings provide evidence of significant labor reallocation effects of conflicts, which arise from the abandonment of farm activities and their replacement by employment in non-agricultural sectors. These effects are observed in both planting and harvesting seasons, suggesting that disruptions occur in both input- and output-related supply chains. Additionally, they differ across gender and skill levels. Hence, in addition to addressing the root causes of conflicts, improving access to education and labor market may be key ingredients of resilience building strategies.Thesis (Ph. D.)--Michigan State University. Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics, 2022Includes bibliographical reference
Essays in developement economics
No full text"In chapter one I use a large nationally representative data set from India to analyze the causal effect of age at marriage of a woman on her post marriage health and fertility outcomes. To look at this effect I propose a new instrumental variable in the sparse causal literature. The instrumental variable strategy stems from two social practices within the Indian society; minimum age targeting at marriage and seasonality of marriage dates. I find that delaying marriage causally decreases the probability of a women being diabetic and having elevated blood pressure post marriage, increases her age at first birth and has a zero effect on the number of children she has. I also find that delayed marriage causally increases the women's educational attainment, improves her bargaining power within the household and improves her spousal quality. The paper also contrasts its findings with the existing causal literature by producing results using both the new and the existing instrumental variable in the literature. I find that both the IV's produce similar estimates in terms of health, education and spousal quality but the estimates differ for fertility outcomes. In the absence of universal social security, parents in India depend heavily on their off springs for post-retirement consumption. The patriarchal nature of the Indian society combined with low labor market returns for women skews this dependency towards sons. This skewedness in dependency for old age support, towards the son, might be a potential reason for gender gap in human capital investments of the children. In chapter two I use the 2004 New Pension Scheme reform in India as a quasi-experiment in a Difference in Difference in Difference framework to identify the causal effect of post retirement security on gender gap in human capital investment. I find that with the decrease in post-retirement security for the parents the gender gap against the female child increases. Compared to the male child, a girl child is less likely to be enrolled in a private school or a school where the medium of instruction is English, both these effects are statistically significant. I also find that the gender gap in test scores is larger post reform for the children of parents whose retirement security decreases, however these results are not statistically significant. Chapter three looks at the relationship between risk correlation in borrower outcomes and micro finance tools such as monitoring and audit. To look at these relationships I introduce risk correlation in existing theoretical models of moral hazard and costly state verification. I find that as risk correlation in borrower outcomes increases auditing by the lender increases whereas the relation with monitoring is conditional on the probability of success of the borrower and the monitor. I use the Townsend Thai data base to check whether the empirical findings are consistent with the theoretical predictions. I find that the relationship between risk correlation and monitoring depends on the measure of risk correlation I use and for auditing I find that the empirical findings are opposite to the theoretical prediction."--Pages ii-iii.Thesis (Ph. D.)--Michigan State University. Economics, 2019Includes bibliographical references (pages 162-166
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