135 research outputs found
Archaeology and Australian megafauna - Response
No full textFor Response - see half way through page 7a of pdfRichard G. Roberts, Hiroyuki Yoshida, Timothy F. Flannery, Linda K. Ayliffe, Jon M. Olley, Gavin J. Prideaux, Geoff M. Laslett, Alexander Baynes, M. A. Smith, Rhys Jones and Barton L. Smit
A Water Accounting System for Strategic Water Management
No full textThis paper describes a water accounting system (WAS) that has been developed as an innovative new tool for strategic long-term water management. The WAS incorporates both disaggregated water use and availability, provides a comprehensive and consistent historical database, and can integrate climate and hydrological model outputs for the exploration of scenarios. It has been established and tested for the state of Victoria in Australia, and can be extended to cover other or all regions of Australia. The WAS is implemented using stock-and-flow dynamics, currently employing major river basins as the spatial units and a yearly time step. While this system shares features with system dynamics, learning is enhanced and strategic management of water resources is improved by application of a Design Approach and the structure of the WAS. We compare the WAS with other relevant accounting systems and outline its benefits, particularly the potential for resolving tensions between water supply and demand. Integrated management is facilitated by combination with other stocks and flows frameworks that provide data on key drivers such as demography, land-use and electricity production.water accounts, stocks and flows, water budgets, decision support systems, strategic management
Historical Calibration of a Water Account System
No full textModels that are used for future based scenarios should be calibrated with historical water supply and use data. Historical water records in Australia are discontinuous, incomplete and often incongruently disaggregated. We present a systematic method to produce a coherent reconstruction of the historical provision and consumption of water in Victorian catchments. This is demonstrated using WAS: an accounting and simulation tool that tracks the stocks and flows of physical quantities relating to the water system. The WAS is also part of, and informed by, an integrated framework of stocks and flows calculators for simulating long-term interactions between other sectors of the physical economy. Both the WAS and related frameworks consider a wide scope of inputs regarding population, land use, energy and water. The physical history of the water sector is reconstructed by integrating water data with these information sources using a data modelling process that resolves conflicts and deduces missing information. The WAS allows strategic exploration of water and energy implications of scenarios of water sourcing, treatment, delivery and end use cognisant of historical records.water accounting, stocks and flows, historical time series, data modelling, calibration
Pacioni_etal_data
No full textData associated with Pacioni, C., Hunt, H., Allentoft, M.E., Vaughan, T.G., Wayne, A.F., Baynes, A., Haouchar, D., Dortch, J., Bunce, M., in press. Genetic diversity loss in a biodiversity hotspot: ancient DNA quantifies genetic decline and former connectivity in a critically endangered marsupial. Molecular Ecology. Please refer to ReadMe.txt (within the zipped folder) for additional information
Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption
No full textCITATION: Baynes, T. M. & Musango, J. K. 2018. Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption. Environmental Research Letters, 13(6):1-13, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aac391.The original publication is available at http://iopscience.iop.orgUrban material resource requirements are significant at the global level and these are expected to expand with future urban population growth. However, there are no global scale studies on the future material consumption of urban areas. This paper provides estimates of global urban domestic material consumption (DMC) in 2050 using three approaches based on: current gross statistics; a regression model; and a transition theoretic logistic model. All methods use UN urban population projections and assume a simple 'business-as-usual' scenario wherein historical aggregate trends in income and material flow continue into the future. A collation of data for 152 cities provided a year 2000 world average DMC/capita estimate, 12 tons/person/year (±22%), which we combined with UN population projections to produce a first-order estimation of urban DMC at 2050 of ~73 billion tons/year (±22%). Urban DMC/capita was found to be significantly correlated (R 2 > 0.9) to urban GDP/capita and area per person through a power law relation used to obtain a second estimate of 106 billion tons (±33%) in 2050. The inelastic exponent of the power law indicates a global tendency for relative decoupling of direct urban material consumption with increasing income. These estimates are global and influenced by the current proportion of developed-world cities in the global population of cities (and in our sample data). A third method employed a logistic model of transitions in urban DMC/capita with regional resolution. This method estimated global urban DMC to rise from approximately 40 billion tons/year in 2010 to ~90 billion tons/year in 2050 (modelled range: 66–111 billion tons/year). DMC/capita across different regions was estimated to converge from a range of 5–27 tons/person/year in the year 2000 to around 8–17 tons/person/year in 2050. The urban population does not increase proportionally during this period and thus the global average DMC/capita increases from ~12 to ~14 tons/person/year, challenging resource decoupling targets.https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aac391Publisher's versionAuthors retain copyrigh
Analysis of the demagnetisation process and possible alternative magnetic treatments for naval vessels
No full textNaval submarines and surface ships are regularly subjected to a treatment called 'deperming' that seeks to design the vessel's permanent magnetisation for optimal magnetic camouflage. A scaled model of a magnetic treatment facility (MTF) has been established as a valid system to simulate deperming and used to investigate various aspects of the deperm process including: magnetic anisotropy and demagnetising fields as factors in the physical modelling of magnetism in whole vessels; a comparison of
current and alternative deperm procedures; the application of theoretical models of bulk magnetisation to calculate deperm outcomes in the physical model and in actual vessels. A laboratory MTF was constructed to imitate the applied field geometry at a naval MTF. The system was calibrated and it was determined that the laboratory MTF could make magnetic measurements on a CU200T-G steel bar sample with an equivalent
accuracy (error = ±5%) to that of standard magnetometric equipment. Experiments were conducted with emphasis on a holistic approach to modelling the deperm process and describing magnetisation changes in whole objects. The importance of the magnetic anisotropic changes to steel with cold rolling was confirmed. In CU200T-G steel sheet the initial susceptibility (ci) was found to increase by a factor of 3 ±0.1 in the rolling direction, from a value of ~ 110 in the un-rolled steel sheet (thickness dependent). ci in the rolled sheet transverse to the rolling direction was
decreased by a factor of 0.94 ±0.09 to ci in the un-rolled sheet steel. Previous studies on hull steel have neglected to account for this transformation through cold work. The demonstration on mild steel here is expected to have an analogy in the final state of the hull sheet steel as it resides in a submarine pressure hull. Future studies either on hull material or on modelling whole vessels should include the same or similar magnetic
anisotropic properties in the steel(s) under investigation. Hollow circular tubes made from CA2S-E and CU200T-G steel sheet were selected as
models for vessels. It was shown that these steel tubes were a good choice in this regard: minimising the complexity of the experiment whilst maintaining the validity of a deperm simulation. During a deperm there was an excellent qualitative likeness in the permanent longitudinal magnetisation (PLM) for the steel tubes to PLM in both a submarine and a surface vessel. Permanent vertical magnetisation (PVM) deperm results from the tubes displayed a close qualitative match with PVM in a submarine but not in a surface vessel.
A theoretical treatment for demagnetisation factors (Nd) in hollow ellipsoids was used in conjunction with a geometrical approximation to calculate Nd for finite hollow objects of revolution. Subsequent theoretical calculations correlated well with experimental results for measured effective ci (ceff) in hollow circular CU200T-G steel tubes of various lengths and aspect ratios. Using an estimate of 100 as ci for submarine hull steel, the same analysis produces Nd for the axial and transaxial directions in a submarine equal to 5.97´10-3 and 0.0142 respectively. Three items for potential improvement were identified in the current deperm protocol used on naval vessels (Flash-D): redundancy in the protocol; the duration of the deperm and a theoretical basis for predicting the final magnetisation or changes in magnetisation during a deperm. Simulations of a novel 'anhysteretic deperm' method, designed to combat these issues, compared favourably to the Flash-D protocol. The standard deviation (s) of the final PVM from 30 Flash-D deperms on steel tubes was 206 A/m; for the final PVM from 30 anhysteretic deperms of the same duration, this was 60 A/m. The s for the final PLM for Flash-D and anhysteretic deperms of the same duration were 416 A/m and 670 A/m respectively. The conclusion is that adopting the
anhysteretic deperm on actual vessels would improve the reliability of the PVM outcome. Though the procedure would demand the same duration as Flash-D, there is the advantage of saving time by not having to repeat deperms to obtain the desired result. Additionally the anhysteretic deperm is considerably more amenable to theoretical analysis. A modified version of Langevin's equation was used to predict the final PLM and PVM results for anhysteretic deperms and to provide a useful analysis of the anhysteretic
processes in the Flash-D procedure. Using a Preisach analysis of hysteresis, a mathematical description of bulk magnetic changes that occur to a specific object, within a deperm, has been developed. Theoretical calculations of PLM in a steel tube during and after both types of deperm are in excellent agreement with experimental data. The same theoretical approach was also used to retrospectively model PLM results from previous Flash-D deperms on a submarine with equal success. With this analysis it
is proposed that anhysteretic deperm outcomes could be predicted a priori.
The influence of magnetic cargo on hull magnetisation was demonstrated to be of significance during and after deperming. 'Sympathetic deperming' occurs where a magnetic source is located close to the hull during a deperm. It was found that a vessel or model vessel hull could still be demagnetised even when they contain magnetic cargo that would normally resist the direct application of the same magnetic fields. This was
explained using the principles of demagnetising fields and anhysteretic magnetisation. A possible explanation was provided for a PVM measurement anomaly common to the model and vessel deperm results. From measurement, alternating longitudinal applied fields apparently induce corresponding changes in the PVM. This effect could be explained by the depermed object being offset longitudinally from the position expected
by the measurement system. This offset could be estimated using an analysis of the changes to PLM and PVM after a longitudinal applied field. The offset displacements calculated for the vessels were too small to be verified experimentally (> 0.1m), but the predicted offset for the steel tubes coincided with the limit of precision for their placement in the laboratory MTF = 0.5mm The aim of this work was to look at the deperm process with reference to a system that demonstrated qualitative similarities to deperms on actual vessels. The laboratory MTF is a unique facility, permitting a useful practical analysis of deperming based on sound magnetostatic measurements The experimental and theoretical results gained here have
direct application to future deperms on naval vessels with particular reference to submarines
Swerving to Avoid the Takings and Ultra Vires Potholes on the Information Superhighway: Is the New York Collocations and Telecommunications Policy a Taking under the New York Public Service Law
No full textThe Supreme Court has established definitive tests to determine whether a regulation amounts to a . taking under the Fifth Amendment. Regulatory agencies, fearful that they will have to compensate property owners for any interest courts deem to have been taken, structure regulations to avoid such a finding. The author examines the per se and regulatory takings jurisprudence applicable to the New York collocation regime. The author then examines each of the New York Public Service Commission orders that create its collocation policy to determine whether New York Telephone Co.\u27s property was taken under the New York Public Service Law, thus rendering the orders ultra vires. The author finds that the New York Public Service Commission was able to circumvent the takings and ultra vires jurisprudence by allowing New York Telephone to choose between physical and virtual collocation. The author concludes that the New York Public Service Commission\u27s orders have national implications for takings jurisprudence, illustrating a method by which regulatory agencies can impose burdensome restrictions while avoiding the just compensation requirement of the Fifth Amendment
A Socio-economic Metabolism Approach to Sustainable Development and Climate Change Mitigation
No full textHumanity faces three large challenges over the coming decades: urbanisation
and industrialisation in developing countries at unprecedented levels; concurrently,
we need to mitigate against dangerous climate change and we need to
consider fi nite global boundaries regarding resource depletion.
Responses to these challenges as well as models that inform strategies are fragmented.
The current mainstream framework for measuring and modelling climate
change mitigation focuses on the fl ows of energy and emissions and is insuffi cient
for simultaneously addressing the material and infrastructure needs of development.
The models’ inability to adequately represent the multiple interactions between
infrastructure stocks, materials, energy and emissions results in notable limitations.
They are inadequate: (1) to identify physically realistic (mass balance consistent)
mitigation pathways, (2) to anticipate potentially relevant co-benefi ts and risks and
thus (3) to identify the most effective strategies for linking targets for climate change
mitigation with goals for sustainable development, including poverty eradication,
infrastructure investment and mitigation of resource depletion.
This chapter demonstrates that a metabolic approach has the potential to address
urbanisation and infrastructure development and energy use and climate change, as
well as resource use, and therefore to provide a framework for integrating climate
change mitigation and sustainable development from a physical perspective.
Metabolic approaches can represent the cross-sector coupling between material and
energy use and waste (emissions) and also stocks in the anthroposphere (including
fi xed assets, public and private infrastructure). Stocks moderate the supply of services
such as shelter, communication, mobility, health and safety and employment
opportunities.
The development of anthropogenic stocks defi nes boundary conditions for industrial
activity over time. By 2050 there will be an additional three billion urban dwellers, almost all of them in developing countries. If they are to receive the level
of services converging on those currently experienced in developed nations, this
will entail a massive investment in infrastructure and substantial quantities of steel,
concrete and aluminium (materials that account for nearly half of industrial emissions).
This scenario is confronted by the legacy of existing infrastructure and the
limit of a cumulative carbon budget within which we could restrain global temperature
rise to <2 °C.
A metabolic framework incorporating stock dynamics can make an explicit connection
between the timing of infrastructure growth or replacement and the material
and energy needs of that investment. Moreover, it provides guidance on the technical
and systemic options for climate mitigation concurrent with a future of intense
urban development and industrialisation© The Author(s) 201
Swerving to Avoid the Takings and Ultra Vires Potholes on the Information Superhighway: Is the New York Collocations and Telecommunications Policy a Taking under the New York Public Service Law
No full textThe Supreme Court has established definitive tests to determine whether a regulation amounts to a . taking under the Fifth Amendment. Regulatory agencies, fearful that they will have to compensate property owners for any interest courts deem to have been taken, structure regulations to avoid such a finding. The author examines the per se and regulatory takings jurisprudence applicable to the New York collocation regime. The author then examines each of the New York Public Service Commission orders that create its collocation policy to determine whether New York Telephone Co.\u27s property was taken under the New York Public Service Law, thus rendering the orders ultra vires. The author finds that the New York Public Service Commission was able to circumvent the takings and ultra vires jurisprudence by allowing New York Telephone to choose between physical and virtual collocation. The author concludes that the New York Public Service Commission\u27s orders have national implications for takings jurisprudence, illustrating a method by which regulatory agencies can impose burdensome restrictions while avoiding the just compensation requirement of the Fifth Amendment
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