590 research outputs found
A second lease on life for technological forecasting
No full textA Second Lease on Life for
Technological Forecasting
THEODORE MODI
On Niall Ferguson's "Complexity and Collapse"
No full textOn Niall Ferguson's "Complexity and Collapse"
Theodore Modi
Fortune Favors the Bold A Woman's Odyssey through a Turbulent Century
No full textIntro -- CONTENTS -- INSTEAD OF A PROLOGUE -- PART ONE -- Constantinople 1921 -- A Quarantine Camp -- Theodoros Modis -- Paraskevi -- A Teachers College Academy -- PART TWO -- Florina 1926-1927 -- Heart beneath a Rock -- A Two-Sister Show -- The Disgrace -- Georgios Papandreou -- Further Education 1931-1933 -- The Engagement -- Kleisoura -- The Wedding -- Giorgos Th. Modis -- The House on Captain Modis Street -- PART THREE -- The War-Early Years -- Aglaïa -- The Imprisonment -- The Separation -- The German Occupation -- The Liberation of Thessaloniki -- The Communists in Florina -- The Years of the Greek Civil War -- A Damned Nameday -- PART FOUR -- Boulis -- The Stefanakises -- The Early 1950s -- Anatolia College -- A Promising Writer -- Thessaloniki 1958-1962 -- EPILOGUE -- A NOTE FROM THE AUTHOR -- BIBLIOGRAPHY -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- NOTESDescription based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, YYYY. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries
Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change—An Update
No full textIn 2002, Modis published an article forecasting that the rate of change in our lives was about to stop accelerating and indeed begin decelerating [DOI:10.1016/S0040-1625(01)00172-X]. Today, with twenty years’ worth more data, Modis revisits those forecasts. He points out that an exponential trend would have predicted the appearance of three “cosmic” milestones by now, namely in 2008, 2015, and 2018, but we have seen none. The logistic trend, however, predicted the next milestone around 2033 and could well turn out to be a cluster of achievements in AI, robotics, nanotechnology, and bioengineering, analogous to what happened with the milestone at the turn of the 20th century. He sees this as confirmation that the concept of a Singularity is not called for
Technological Forecasting at the Stock Market
No full textUnder the assumption that competition (Darwinian in nature) reigns in the stock market, we analyze the behavior of company stocks as if they were species competing for investors' resources. The approach requires the study of dollar values and share volumes, daily exchanged in the stock market, via logistic growth functions. These two variables, in contrast to prices, obey the law of natural growth in competition, which like every natural law, is endowed with predictability. A number of unexpected insights about the stock market emerge. The forecasts indicate that whereas there is no looming crash in the near future, no significant growth should be expected either. The DJIA is to hover around 9500 depicting large erratic excursions above and below this level for a few years. The use of Volterra-Lotka equations demonstrates that the 1987 crash altered the stock-bond interaction from a symbiotic to a predator-prey relationship with stocks acting as predators. This research work has lead to the publication of the book "An S-Shaped Trail to Wall Street" by T. Modis, (Growth Dynamics, Geneva, 1999)
A Second Lease on Life for Technological Forecasting
No full textAccording to the metaphor of the business seasons developed by T. Modis in his book "Conquering Uncertainty" the Journal (TF&SC), which is celebrating its 30th anniversary this year, is traversing a "fall" season. In fall seeds are put in the ground for the next season's crop. A promising such “seed” for a new generation of technological-forecasting activities is biology-related studies
Technological Forecasting at the Stock Market
No full textUnder the assumption that competition (Darwinian in nature) reigns in the stock market, we analyze
the behavior of company stocks as if they were species competing for investors’ resources. The approach
requires the study of dollar values and share volumes, daily exchanged in the stock market, via logistic growth
functions. These two variables, in contrast to prices, obey the law of natural growth in competition, which like
every natural law, is endowed with predictability. A number of unexpected insights about the stock market
emerge. The forecasts indicate that whereas there is no looming crash in the near future, no significant growth
should be expected either. The DJIA is to hover around 9500 depicting large erratic excursions above and
below this level for a few years. The use of Volterra-Lotka equations demonstrates that the 1987 crash altered
the stock-bond interaction from a symbiotic to a predator-prey relationship with stocks acting as predators. This research work has lead to the publication of the book "An S-Shaped Trail to Wall Street" by T. Modis,
(Growth Dynamics, Geneva, 1999)
Limits to Cycles and Harmony in Revolutions
No full textThis article discusses difficulties and rewards associated with research and publication on the topic of cycles. Experiences and highlights are mainly drawn from two books by the author: Predictions, Simon and Schuster, 1992, and Conquering Uncertainty, BusinesWeek Books (McGraw-Hill), New York, 1998. Much of the content of these books has appeared over the years in various articles published in this journal
Genetic re-engineering of corporations
No full textThe work presented here constitutes a chapter in a forthcoming book by the same author entitled Conquering Uncertainty (McGraw-Hill). The approach uses the Voltera-Lotka equations to describe the competitive dynamics in a market niche occupied by two competitors. All types of competition are considered. Examples from industry demonstrate the possibility to alter the competitive roles by acting on the parameters of the equations. A methodology is given on how to guide and optimize advertising and image-building strategies
Genetic re-engineering of corporations
No full textThe work presented here constitutes a chapter in a forthcoming book by the same author entitled
Conquering Uncertainty (McGraw-Hill). The approach uses the Volterra-Lotka equations to describe the competitive dynamics in a market niche occupied by two competitors. All types of competition are considered. Examples from industry demonstrate the possibility to alter the competitive roles by acting on the parameters of the equations. A methodology is given on how to guide and optimize advertising and image-building strategie
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