1,721,011 research outputs found
Assessing the tourism-led growth hypothesis and the demand for tourism in Malaysia / Tang Chor Foon
Get PDFTourism is one of the rapidly growing service sectors in the world. This impressive
performance has sparked the interest of Malaysia’s government to promote the tourism
sector as one of the National Key Economic Areas (NKEA) to transform Malaysia into
a high-income nation by 2020. Nevertheless, as economic globalisation gathers
momentum, there are criticisms that tourism may not significantly stimulate long-term
economic growth as many informal agents bring in illegal workers to Malaysia using
the tourism channel as a conduit, and it is hard to differentiate between genuine tourists
and those who arrive in search of jobs. This is attributable to the fact that high rates of
arrivals may not necessarily equate higher rates of tourism earnings because not all
arrivals are genuine tourists. As a latecomer into the tourism industry, of course,
Malaysia has also faced a great deal of challenges to obtain genuine tourists and a share
of this market. This has revealed the need to assess the role of tourism in Malaysia’s
economic growth and also the key factors that inspire tourists’ decision to visit
Malaysia.
In light of the above concerns, this thesis purports to provide a critical assessment on
the tourism-led growth (TLG) hypothesis and the demand for inbound tourism in
Malaysia using non-stationary time series and panel data approaches. Essentially, unit
root, cointegration and the Granger causality tests are the main econometric techniques
used to investigate the issues raised.
Generally, the analyses can be segregated into three major parts. First, this thesis
examines the validity of the TLG hypothesis in Malaysia at the aggregate level. Second,
this thesis attempts to expand the analysis by investigating the validity as well as the
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stability of the TLG hypothesis with respect to tourist arrivals from 12 major touristsgenerating
markets. The major tourist-generating markets are Australia, Brunei, China,
Germany, Indonesia, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, the United
Kingdom and the United States. After verifying the validity of the TLG hypothesis in
Malaysia, the third component of this thesis is focused on assessing the behaviour of
inbound tourism demand in Malaysia.
Several main findings are worth noting. First, at the aggregate level of analysis, the
results show that the TLG hypothesis is valid. Second, at the disaggregated level of
analysis, the results reveal that only 10 out of 12 tourism markets exhibit consistent
support to the TLG hypothesis in Malaysia, and most of them were developed countries.
This evidence suggests that the TLG hypothesis is still valid in Malaysia, and to
optimise resource utilisation, tourism marketing policies should target those markets
that could persistently contribute to economic growth. Finally, research on the demand
for inbound tourism in Malaysia identified that apart from economic factors, tourists’
decision-making of where and when to go is also highly dependent on environmental
quality, security and health factors. Therefore, Malaysia’s government and the industry
stakeholders should take into consideration these factors in their planning to attract
global tourists to visit Malaysia. In doing so, more genuine tourists can be attracted, and
economic growth can be sustained
Is the Phillips curve stable for Malaysia? ew empirical evidence
No full textThe objective of this study is to investigate the stability of trade-off Phillips curve in Malaysia. The sample covers annual data from 1970 to 2005. This study finds that trade-off Phillips curve exists in Malaysia for both short run and long run. Furthermore, there is a stable long-run tradeoff relationship between the inflation and unemployment rates in Malaysia
Return and asymmetric volatility transmissions between main stock market and second-tier stock market: the case of Hong Kong
No full textThis study aims to investigate the dynamic return and asymmetric volatility transmissions between the main stock market and the Growth Enterprise Market in Hong Kong. Unlike previous studies, this study examines the cross-market transmissions under the joint impacts of volatility breaks, thin trading, and trading volume. A linear state-space AR model with Kalman filter estimation and an augmented bivariate VAR asymmetric BEKK-GARCH model are employed for empirical analysis. The results determine that under the joint impacts of volatility breaks, thin trading, and trading volume, a unidirectional return transmission from the GEM to the main market survives with the diminishing magnitude and significant level. However, the underlying volatility transmission from the GEM to the main market, in essence, is eliminated. This paper aims to be a proof-of-concept to provide sufficient evidence of methodological viability, which can then be used in larger scale research or replicated in new settings
A note on the nonlinear wages-productivity nexus for Malaysia
No full textThis study is to empirically investigate the effect of real wages on productivity in Malaysia using monthly data from January 1983 to November 2009. The Johansen’s test suggests that wages and productivity are cointegrated. Moreover, productivity and real wages have a quadratic relationship in the long run (i.e., inverse-U shape curve) instead of linear relationship. Hence, the effect of real wages on productivity is not monotonic. Furthermore, the Granger causality test indicates that real wages and productivity is bilateral causality in nature.Causality; Cointegration; Malaysia; Wages-Productivity
A re-examination of the role of foreign direct investment and exports in Malaysia's economic growth : a time series analysis,1970-2006
Get PDFThe main objective of this study was to re-examine the role of foreign direct investment(FDI)and port Malaysia's economic growth over the period of 1970 to 2006.The Johansen and Juselius(1990) cointegration test was used to investigate the presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and its determinants. Besides, the vector error correction model (VECM) and the Granger (1969) causality test were used to examine the short-and long-run causality direction between the relevant
variables. The empirical results revealed that economic growth and its determinants were cointegrated. The Dynamic OLS results suggested that FDI and exports were positively related to economic growth. In addition,the Granger causality results strongly supported bilateral causality between economic growth and its determinants. This indicated that FDI and exports contribute to Malaysia’s economic growth. In fact, high economic growth will also cause FDI and export-orientated industries to grow rapidly
The stability of money demand function in Japan: Evidence from rolling cointegration approach
Get PDFThe main purpose of this study is to re-investigate the stability of Japanese M2 money demand function over the period of 1960:Q1 to 2007:Q2. This study propose to incorporate the rolling regression approach into the bounds testing procedure for cointegration within the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework to search for the stability of money demand function in Japan. This study, in general, confirms that real M2 money demand and its determinants, real income and interest rates are cointegrated within the entire sample period. In line to that, the CUSUM and CUSUM of Squares tests show that the money demand function is stable over the analysis period. However, the evidence of rolling ARDL cointegration test implies that Japanese M2 money demand is not stable due to a series of changes in the Japanese monetary policy environment. The finding of this study is vital for policymakers in formulating an appropriate macroeconomic policy. Owing to the low power of CUSUM and CUSUM of Squares tests in the presence of lagged dependent variable(s), this study propose to use the rolling cointegration test to re-investigate the stability of money demand function in Japan
The determinants of health expenditure in Malaysia: A time series analysis
Get PDFThe purpose of this study is to investigate the determinants of health expenditure in Malaysia within the time series framework from 1967 to 2007. This study employed the Johansen-Juselius cointegration test to examine the cointegration relationship. The results showed that health expenditure and its determinants are cointegrated. Consistent with economic theory, the TYDL and variance decomposition analysis reveals that the key explanatory variables in Malaysia’s health expenditure model are income, health care price and the proportion of population aged more than 65 years old. Moreover, the TYDL causality indicates that health expenditure and income is bi-directional in nature, thus policies initiative to promote health expenditure should be implemented to achieve sustainable economic growth and development
Savings-led growth theories: A time series analysis for Malaysia using the bootstrapping and time-varying causality techniques
Get PDFThe purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the vindication of savings-led growth hypothesis for the Malaysian economy with the long run TYDL version of Granger causality – Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and Dolado and Lütkepohl (1996). This study used the quarterly sample from 1970:Q1 to 2008:Q4. The recursive regression procedure will also incorporate into the TYDL causality test to measure the stability of the savings-led growth hypothesis in the long run. Our empirical results support that the savings-led growth hypothesis is long run phenomenon and stable over time. Therefore, the Malaysian dataset supports the endogenous growth theory
Multivariate Granger causality and the dynamic relationship between health spending, income, and health price in Malaysia
Get PDFThis study employs the Granger causality test within a multivariate cointegration and error-correction framework to investigate the relationship between health spending, income, and health price in Malaysia. This study covers the annual sample from 1970 to 2009. The main findings of this study are that in the short-run there is uni-directional Granger causality running from health spending and health price to income in Malaysia. While, in the long-run health spending, income and health price are bi-directional Granger causality. In addition, we also extend the study to examine the dynamic interaction between the variables in the system through the forecast error variance decomposition and impulse response function analyses. In line with the finding of Granger causality, all the variables behaved endogenously in the long-run. Thus, the variables are Granger-causes each other in the long-run even there might be deviations in the short-run
Temporal Granger causality and the dynamics examination on the tourism-growth nexus in Malaysia
Get PDFThis study applied the cointegration, error-correction modelling and persistence profile to analyse the dynamic relationship between real tourism receipts, real income and real exchange rate in Malaysia. This study covers the annual sample period from 1974 to 2009. This study finds that the variables are cointegrated. In the short run, this study finds that neutrality causality between real tourism receipts and real income, while they are bi-directional Granger causality in the long run. Nevertheless, this study finds uni-directional causality running from real exchange rate to real tourism receipts and real income in both short- and long run.Causality; Exchange rate; Malaysia; Tourism-led growth; Persistence profile
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