2,563 research outputs found
It's the economy stupid: comparison of proportional hazards models with economic and socio-demographic variables for estimating the purchase of financial products
No full textRelatively there is little empirical research that has been taken to understand how the underlying economy affects customers’ subsequent financial product purchase behaviours. A better understanding of this influence and being able to predict the probability of purchasing are important for financial service industries. This paper undertakes an examination of the impacts of social-demographic and economic variables on the probability of purchasing financial products. In particular two most common, the Cox and Weibull, proportional hazard models are compared to examine their adequacy in terms of predictive ability. The results show that the change of external economic environment is an important source that drives customers’ financial products purchasing behaviours. Furthermore, the results also that indicate Cox proportional hazard models are superior to Weibull proportional hazard models
Operations research in consumer finance: challenges for operational research
No full textConsumer finance has become one of the most important areas of banking both because of the amount of money being lent and the impact of such credit on the global economy and the realisation that the credit crunch of 2008 was partly due to incorrect modelling of the risks in such lending. This paper reviews the development of credit scoring,-the way of assessing risk in consumer finance- and what is meant by a credit score. It then outlines ten challenges for Operational Research to support modelling in consumer finance. Some of these are to developing more robust risk assessment systems while others are to expand the use of such modelling to deal with the current objectives of lenders and the new decisions they have to make in consumer financ
Structural Geology of the Cariboo Gold Mining District, East-Central British Columbia:
No full textL.C. Struik.Memoir (Geological Survey of Canada) ; 421
Application of survival analysis to cash flow modelling for mortgage products
No full textIn this article we describe the construction and implementation of a pricing model for a leading UK mortgage lender. The crisis in mortgage lending has highlighted the importance of incorporating default risk into such pricing decisions b y mortgage lenders. In this case the underlying default model is based on survival analysis, which allows the estimation of month-to-month default probabilities at a customer level. The Cox proportional hazards estimation approach adopted is able to incorporate both endogenous variables (customer specific attributes) and time-covariates relating to the macro-economy. This allows the lender to construct a hypothetical mortgage portfolio, specify one or more economic scenarios, and forecast discounted monthly cashflow for the lifetime of the loans. Monte Carlo simulation is used to compute different realisations of default and attrition rates for the portfolio over a future time horizon and thereby estimate a distribution of likely profit. This differs from a traditional scorecard approach in that it is possible to forecast default rates continually over a time period rather than within a fixed horizon, which allows the simulation of cashflow, and differs from the company's existing pricing model in incorporating the possibilities of both default and early closur
Topological Analyses and Bond Characterization of 1, 3, 5, 7-Tetra- tert-butyl-s-Indacene: A Weak Csp3-H...H-Csp2 Type Dihydrogen Interaction
No full textIt's the economy stupid: modelling financial product purchases
No full textPurpose – The purpose of this research is to undertake an examination of the impacts of socio-demographic and economic variables on the probability of purchasing financial products. There is relatively little empirical research that has been taken to understand how the underlying economy affects customers' subsequent financial product purchase behaviours. Understanding this influence would improve prediction of when purchases will occur and hence is important for the Customer lifetime value models of financial service organisations.
Design/methodology/approach – Two proportional hazard modelling approaches – Cox and Weibull – are compared in terms of predictive ability on a data set from a major insurance company. The risk factors for purchase are both economic and socio-demographic.
Findings – The results show that the external economic environment is an extremely important influence in driving customers' financial products purchasing behaviours. Furthermore, the results also indicate that Cox's proportional hazard models are superior to Weibull proportional hazard models in this case because of an annual purchase effect.
Practical implications – Financial organisations need to consider the current economic conditions before determining how much marketing effort to undertake.
Originality/value – The originality of this paper is that it considers economic conditions and socio-demographic variables in modelling the long run purchase behaviour of customers for insurance and savings products. It has a large data set from a major insurance company. It is also one of the first papers to make a detailed comparison between the semi-parametric and parametric proportional hazard models in the bank marketing area. <br/
Impact of demographic and economic variables on financial policy purchase timing decisions
No full textThis paper investigates the extent to which consumers' demographic factors influence their financial policy purchasing behaviours and also explores how the external economic environment affects consumers' propensities to purchase financial products. The Cox proportional hazard model is used to explore these issues. The results suggest that consumer decisions on the timing of financial product purchases are largely explained by changes in the economic environment in terms of stock market, the housing market, average earnings, consumer confidence, and interest rates. The influence of customer demographic factors is also important but secondary
Depolarization and decreased surface expression of K+ channels contribute to NSAID-inhibition of intestinal restitution
No full textNon-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) contribute to gastrointestinal ulcer formation by inhibiting epithelial cell migration and mucosal restitution; however, the drug-affected signaling pathways are poorly defined. We investigated whether NSAID inhibition of intestinal epithelial migration is associated with depletion of intracellular polyamines, depolarization of membrane potential (Em) and altered surface expression of K+ channels. Epithelial cell migration in response to the wounding of confluent IEC-6 and IEC-Cdx2 monolayers was reduced by indomethacin (100μM), phenylbutazone (100μM) and NS-398 (100μM) but not by SC-560 (1μM). NSAID-inhibition of intestinal cell migration was not associated with depletion of intracellular polyamines. Treatment of IEC-6 and IEC-Cdx2 cells with indomethacin, phenylbutazone and NS-398 induced significant depolarization of Em, whereas treatment with SC-560 had no effect on Em. The Em of IEC-Cdx2 cells was: −38.5±1.8mV under control conditions; −35.9±1.6mV after treatment with SC-560; −18.8±1.2mV after treatment with indomethacin; and −23.7±1.4mV after treatment with NS-398. Whereas SC-560 had no significant effects on the total cellular expression of Kv1.4 channel protein, indomethacin and NS-398 decreased not only the total cellular expression of Kv1.4, but also the cell surface expression of both Kv1.4 and Kv1.6 channel subunits in IEC-Cdx2. Both Kv1.4 and Kv1.6 channel proteins were immunoprecipitated by Kv1.4 antibody from IEC-Cdx2 lysates, indicating that these subunits co-assemble to form heteromeric Kv channels. These results suggest that NSAID inhibition of epithelial cell migration is independent of polyamine-depletion, and is associated with depolarization of Em and decreased surface expression of heteromeric Kv1 channels.ID: S0006295207001931; M3: Article; Accession Number: S0006295207001931; Author: L.C. Freeman (b); Author: D.F. Narvaez (a); Author: A. McCoy (a); Author: F.B. von Stein (c); Author: S. Young (b); Author: K. Silver (a); Author: S. Ganta (b); Author: D. Koch (b); Author: R. Hunter (b); Author: R.F. Gilmour (c); Author: J.D. Lillich (a, ⁎); Affiliation: Department of Clinical Sciences, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, United States; Affiliation: Department of Anatomy and Physiology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, United States; Affiliation: Department of Biomedical Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, United States; Keyword: Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs; Keyword: Intestinal epithelial cells; Keyword: Membrane potential; Keyword: Potassium channels; Number of Pages: 12; Language: English;Source type: Electronic(1)http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=edselp&AN=S0006295207001931&site=eds-live&scope=sit
Les Observations sur l'éloquence de l'abbé de Saint-Pierre
No full textAbbé de Saint-Pierre : Observations sur l'éloquence. Presented by Lawrence Kerslake.
Many of the abbé de Saint-Pierre's writings remain little-known or even unpublished. The Observations sur l'éloquence constitute his chief discussion of literature. A preliminary draft appeared in the Mercure in 1726, but the work subsequently underwent two major revisions, both states represented in Ms. R.248 of the Bibliothèque publique et universitaire in Neuchâtel. A further copy (BNF. N.a.fr. 11232), with a few additional changes, is published here. The ideas in the text show the author to be a 'Modern' in his position on beauty and literary effect, and reflect his life-long concern for the improvement of his fellow-citizens.Kerslake L.C. Les Observations sur l'éloquence de l'abbé de Saint-Pierre. In: Dix-huitième Siècle, n°31, 1999. Mouvement des sciences et esthétique(s) sous la direction de Christine Rolland, François Azouvi et Michel Baridon. pp. 305-328
The Xing-ling Theory and the Poetic Aesthetics in The Dream of the Red Chamber
No full text在《紅樓夢》中浮出檯面明白宣說的表層詩論，主要是由正統主義所建構出來的雅正體系，因此推倡「詩必盛唐(以上）」而樂於擬古的格調派，為《紅樓夢》提供了詩論與詩學的根本骨架；然而，書中詩作卻以遭到正統觀所責難與菲薄的中晚唐詩人為審美風格的主要來源，展演了以「綺靡秀媚」、「清新纖巧」、「感傷衰颯」等偏異化特質為主的書寫傾向，進行對中晚唐詩歌美學系譜的傳承與回歸，而構成實踐層次上反雅趨變的歧出現象，延異出正統∕異端、形式∕內容、詩教∕詩心之間的多維辯證。就在此一詩論與詩作表裡相悖而互補統一的特殊「偽形結構」中，本文更進一步指出：書中詩歌作品的意象塑造、審美趨向、風格表述等與性靈說的密切關係。事實上，由性靈說的理論內涵本就勢必導出對中晚唐詩之創作風格的欣賞與追求，袁枚更以「芬芳悱惻之懷」為其性靈說的究竟核心，並由之形成「南朝宮體—晚唐溫李韓偓—南宋楊萬里」的性靈譜系；而其文學主張與實踐方式也較宜於閨秀女性的創作特質，遂形成「中晚唐詩—性靈美學—閨秀創作」的內在聯繫。由此可為《紅樓夢》中詩歌作品的表現特質尋得理論基礎，證明性靈說是支撐《紅樓夢》的創作活力，以衝決或填補其詩歌理論面貌的關鍵。The poetic theories proposed in The Dream of the Red Chamber mainly belong to the system of the School of Ge-diao, which advocates writing poems with the classic poetic style of the High Tang Dynasty and before. However, the poems in the book follow the aesthetic style of Late Tang poetry, drawing a multi-dimensional discussion between classicism and aesthetics. Focusing on Yuan Mei’s theory of xing-ling, this paper analyzes the image formation, the aesthetic orientation, and the expressionist style of the poems in The Dream of the Red Chamber. Emphasizing the style of fragrance and sentiment, the xing-ling theory is in fact a successor of the palace-style poetry of the Southern Dynasties; the poetry of Wen Ting-Yun, Li Shang-Yin, and Han Wo in the Late Tang; and the poetry of Yang Wan-Li in the Southern Song. Since the xing-ling theory is congruent to the characteristics of female poets, it is also closely connected with Late Tang poetry and lady poetry. Comparing the xing-ling theory with the poems in The Dream of the Red Chamber, this paper proves the close relationship between them and concludes that xing-ling, rather than ge-diao, is the real creative vitality of poem composing in The Dream of the Red Chamber
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