145 research outputs found
An exactly solvable coarse-grained model for species diversity
No full textWe present novel analytical results concerning ecosystem species diversity that stem from a proposed coarse-grained neutral model based on birth-death processes. The relevance of the problem lies in the urgency for understanding and synthesizing both theoretical results from ecological neutral theory and empirical evidence on species diversity preservation. The neutral model of biodiversity deals with ecosystems at the same trophic level, where per capita vital rates are assumed to be species independent. Closed-form analytical solutions for the neutral theory are obtained within a coarse-grained model, where the only input is the species persistence time distribution. Our results pertain to: the probability distribution function of the number of species in the ecosystem, both in transient and in stationary states; the n-point connected time correlation function; and the survival probability, defined as the distribution of time spans to local extinction for a species randomly sampled from the community. Analytical predictions are also tested on empirical data from an estuarine fish ecosystem. We find that emerging properties of the ecosystem are very robust and do not depend on specific details of the model, with implications for biodiversity and conservation biology
Early warning signs in social-ecological networks.
No full textA number of social-ecological systems exhibit complex behaviour associated with nonlinearities, bifurcations, and interaction with stochastic drivers. These systems are often prone to abrupt and unexpected instabilities and state shifts that emerge as a discontinuous response to gradual changes in environmental drivers. Predicting such behaviours is crucial to the prevention of or preparation for unwanted regime shifts. Recent research in ecology has investigated early warning signs that anticipate the divergence of univariate ecosystem dynamics from a stable attractor. To date, leading indicators of instability in systems with multiple interacting components have remained poorly investigated. This is a major limitation in the understanding of the dynamics of complex social-ecological networks. Here, we develop a theoretical framework to demonstrate that rising variance--measured, for example, by the maximum element of the covariance matrix of the network--is an effective leading indicator of network instability. We show that its reliability and robustness depend more on the sign of the interactions within the network than the network structure or noise intensity. Mutualistic, scale free and small world networks are less stable than their antagonistic or random counterparts but their instability is more reliably predicted by this leading indicator. These results provide new advances in multidimensional early warning analysis and offer a framework to evaluate the resilience of social-ecological networks
Disentangling the effect of hybrid interactions and of the constant effort hypothesis on ecological community stability
No full textIn the last years, a remarkable theoretical effort has been made in order to understand the relation between stability and complexity in ecological communities. Yet, what maintains species diversity in real ecological communities is still an open question. The non-random structures of ecological interaction networks have been recognized as one key ingredient impacting the maximum number of coexisting species within the ecological community. However most of the earlier theoretical studies have considered communities with only one interaction type (either antagonistic, competitive or mutualistic). Recently, it has been proposed that multiple interaction types might stabilize ecosystems and that, in this hybrid case, increasing complexity increases stability. Here we show that these results depend on ad hoc hypothesis that the authors used in their model and we highlight the need to disentangle the role of multiple interaction types and constant interaction effort allocation on community stability. Indeed, we find that mixing of mutualistic and predator-prey interaction types does not stabilize the community dynamics and we demonstrate that a positive correlation between complexity and stability is observed only if a constant effort allocation is imposed in the ecological interactions. Synthesis In recent years a sparkling research has been devoted to the search of new theoretical mechanisms to explain way ecosystems may persist despite their complexity. Here we show that, contrary to what recently suggested (Mougi et al. 2012), the mismatch between theoretical results and empirical evidences on the stability of ecological community is still there also for communities with both mutualistic and antagonistic interactions, and the 'complexity-stability' paradox is still alive. Indeed, we demonstrate that their results arise as an artifact of the peculiar rescaling of the interaction strengths they imposed. Our study suggests that further theoretical studies and experimental evidences are still needed to better understand the role of interaction strengths in real ecological communities
A data driven network approach to rank countries production diversity and food specialization
No full textThe easy access to large data sets has allowed for leveraging methodology in network physics and complexity science to disentangle patterns and processes directly from the data, leading to key insights in the behavior of systems. Here we use country specific food production data to study binary and weighted topological properties of the bipartite country-food production matrix. This country-food production matrix can be: 1) transformed into overlap matrices which embed information regarding shared production of products among countries, and or shared countries for individual products, 2) identify subsets of countries which produce similar commodities or subsets of commodities shared by a given country allowing for visualization of correlations in large networks, and 3) used to rank country fitness (the ability to produce a diverse array of products weighted on the type of food commodities) and food specialization (quantified on the number of countries producing a specific food product weighted on their fitness). Our results show that, on average, countries with high fitness produce both low and high specializion food commodities, whereas nations with low fitness tend to produce a small basket of diverse food products, typically comprised of low specializion food commodities
Prescription-induced jump distributions in multiplicative Poisson processes
No full textGeneralized Langevin equations (GLE) with multiplicative white Poisson noise pose the usual prescription dilemma leading to different evolution equations (master equations) for the probability distribution. Contrary to the case of multiplicative Gaussian white noise, the Stratonovich prescription does not correspond to the well-known midpoint (or any other intermediate) prescription. By introducing an inertial term in the GLE, we show that the Ito and Stratonovich prescriptions naturally arise depending on two time scales, one induced by the inertial term and the other determined by the jump event. We also show that, when the multiplicative noise is linear in the random variable, one prescription can be made equivalent to the other by a suitable transformation in the jump probability distribution. We apply these results to a recently proposed stochastic model describing the dynamics of primary soil salinization, in which the salt mass balance within the soil root zone requires the analysis of different prescriptions arising from the resulting stochastic differential equation forced by multiplicative white Poisson noise, the features of which are tailored to the characters of the daily precipitation. A method is finally suggested to infer the most appropriate prescription from the data
Species survival and scaling laws in hostile and disordered environments
No full textIn this work we study the likelihood of survival of single-species in
the context of hostile and disordered environments. Population dynamics
in this environment, as modeled by the Fisher equation, is characterized
by negative average growth rate, except in some random spatially
distributed patches that may support life. In particular, we are
interested in the phase diagram of the survival probability and in the
critical size problem, i.e., the minimum patch size required for
surviving in the long-time dynamics. We propose a measure for the
critical patch size as being proportional to the participation ratio of
the eigenvector corresponding to the largest eigenvalue of the
linearized Fisher dynamics. We obtain the (extinction-survival) phase
diagram and the probability distribution function (PDF) of the critical
patch sizes for two topologies, namely, the one-dimensional system and
the fractal Peano basin. We show that both topologies share the same
qualitative features, but the fractal topology requires higher spatial
fluctuations to guarantee species survival. We perform a finite-size
scaling and we obtain the associated scaling exponents. In addition, we
show that the PDF of the critical patch sizes has an universal shape for
the 1D case in terms of the model parameters (diffusion, growth rate,
etc.). In contrast, the diffusion coefficient has a drastic effect on
the PDF of the critical patch sizes of the fractal Peano basin, and it
does not obey the same scaling law of the 1D case
Neutral dynamics with environmental noise: Age-size statistics and species lifetimes
No full textNeutral dynamics, where taxa are assumed to be demographically equivalent and their abundance is governed solely by the stochasticity of the underlying birth-death process, has proved itself as an important minimal model that accounts for many empirical datasets in genetics and ecology. However, the restriction of the model to
demographic O( N^1/2) noise yields relatively slow dynamics that appears to be in conflict with both short-term and long-term characteristics of the observed systems.
Here we analyze two of these problems—age-size relationships and species extinction time—in the framework of a neutral theory with both demographic and environmental stochasticity. It turns out that environmentally induced variations of the demographic rates control the long-term dynamics and modify dramatically the predictions of the neutral theory with demographic noise only, yielding much better agreement with empirical data. We consider two prototypes of “zero mean” environmental noise, one which is balanced with regard to the arithmetic abundance, another balanced in the logarithmic (fitness) space, study their species lifetime statistics, and discuss their relevance to realistic models of community dynamics
Emergence of structural and dynamical properties of ecological mutualistic networks
No full textMutualistic networks are formed when the interactions between two classes of species are mutually beneficial. They are important examples of cooperation shaped by evolution. Mutualism between animals and plants has a key role in the organization of ecological communities. Such networks in ecology have generally evolved a nested architecture independent of species composition and latitude; specialist species, with only few mutualistic links, tend to interact with a proper subset of the many mutualistic partners of any of the generalist species. Despite sustained efforts to explain observed network structure on the basis of community-level stability or persistence, such correlative studies have reached minimal consensus. Here we show that nested interaction networks could emerge as a consequence of an optimization principle aimed at maximizing the species abundance in mutualistic communities. Using analytical and numerical approaches, we show that because of the mutualistic interactions, an increase in abundance of a given species results in a corresponding increase in the total number of individuals in the community, and also an increase in the nestedness of the interaction matrix. Indeed, the species abundances and the nestedness of the interaction matrix are correlated by a factor that depends on the strength of the mutualistic interactions. Nestedness and the observed spontaneous emergence of generalist and specialist species occur for several dynamical implementations of the variational principle under stationary conditions. Optimized networks, although remaining stable, tend to be less resilient than their counterparts with randomly assigned interactions. In particular, we show analytically that the abundance of the rarest species is linked directly to the resilience of the community. Our work provides a unifying framework for studying the emergent structural and dynamical properties of ecological mutualistic networks
Species coexistence in a neutral dynamics with environmental noise
No full textEnvironmental fluctuations have important consequences in the
organization of ecological communities, and understanding how such a
variability influences the biodiversity of an ecosystem is a major
question in ecology. In this paper, we analyze the case of two species
competing for the resources within the framework of the neutral theory
in the presence of environmental noise, devoting special attention on
how such a variability modulates species fitness. The environment is
dichotomous and stochastically alternates between periods favoring one
of the species while disfavoring the other one, preserving neutrality on
the long term. We study two different scenarios: in the first one
species fitness varies linearly with the environment, and in the second
one the effective fitness is re-scaled by the total fitness of the
individuals competing for the same resource. We find that, in the former
case environmental fluctuations always reduce the time of species
coexistence, whereas such a time can be enhanced or reduced in the
latter case, depending on the correlation time of the environment. This
phenomenon can be understood as a direct consequence of Chesson's
storage effect
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