14 research outputs found
A Geospatial Approach to Sustainable Urban Planning: Lessons for Morogoro Municipal Council, Tanzania
No full textSustainable urban planning is essential in mediating the natural and built environments globally, yet, there is little progress as regards its attainment in developing countries. Rapid and unplanned urbanization continue to threaten the sustainability of many cities in Africa. By selecting Morogoro Municipal Council (MMC) in Tanzania as an example, this study applied well-known remote sensing techniques to understand the dynamics of urban growth and the implications for sustainable urban planning. The study analyzes spatio-temporal characteristics for eighteen years (2000–2018) based on urban land density using gradient and grid-based analysis to further examine land use and urban land density nexus. The results indicate declining urban land densities with distance to the city center, indicating a less compact and fragmented development at the urban fringes; and northward development with limited development to the south of MCC. The knowledge and understanding of the patterns of spatio-temporal conditions, land use planning, and management interventions in MMC are necessary for addressing the inadequacies associated with rapid urbanization within the study area. On this basis, we propose a shift from the modernist to the communicative planning strategy that strongly integrates the urban social, economic, and environmental imperatives, while being adaptable to evolving realities. This plan should also aim to curtail urban sprawl and create a viable city system and economically prosperous city structure for MMC
Challenges and Opportunities for the Advancement of GIS Education in TANZANIA
No full textRapid developments in science and technology have driven utilization of Geographical Information Science (GIS) in various fields of Planning, Management, and exploitation of environmental resources and provision of social services. As information technology gains momentum, GIS uses information science infrastructure to address the problems of geography, cartography, geosciences locations and related branches of science and engineering; that is shortly referred to as Geo-informatics. Increased application of GIS calls for more demand of advanced Geo-informatics education worldwide. This study has established major challenges for the advancement of Geo-informatics education in Tanzania and any possible opportunities which can be utilized for the improvement of the same. Prominent challenges identified could be associated with lack of reliable power, internet connection, computer system and accessories and appropriate software. Other challenges were related to the nature of the school curriculum and insufficient knowledge and skills of the human resources. Opportunities identified involve available government plans for increasing power supply, increasing mobile phones networks, Tanzania ICT and education and training policy with a major aim of improving ICT education and the competency based school curriculum under implementation. But the government should further support directly or indirectly all efforts by various groups that participate in advancing Geo-informatics education in the country. Keywords: Education, Geo-informatics, Tanzania, GIS, Transfer of Technology IC
Urban growth dynamics and expansion forms in 11 Tanzanian cities from 1990 to 2020
No full textJournal ArticleWith rapid urban expansion across Tanzania, there is a need to institute
steps to address factors and forms as well as impacts and challenges
associated with the observed trend. This study’s aim is to use spatial
urban landscape indices to analyze the spatial changes in urban forms,
patterns, and rates across 11 urban centers in Tanzania over a 30-year
study period (1990–2020). During the past three decades, urban lands
of 11 cities and town in Tanzania have grown by a total of 480 km 2 .
Leapfrog growth was found as the most dominant form of urban
expansion in Tanzania while Dodoma, the capital city of Tanzania, had
the highest rate of urban expansion when compared to all other
individual cities. The most robust and significant interaction of the
AWMLEI and MLEI was found in Kigoma, Arusha, Mtwara, Mafinga, and
Tunduma cities. In contrast, Mbeya agricultural city, Arusha the tourist
city, Tabora, and Geita Lake zone areas did show their own peculiarities
revealing an interesting spatial temporal variation in rate and form of
expansion. The outcome of this study reveals that the influence and
management of economic and socio-cultural opportunities will be an
effective tool for the determination of the rapidly expanding cities and
towns of Tanzania
Urban growth dynamics and expansion forms in 11 Tanzanian cities from 1990 to 2020
No full textWith rapid urban expansion across Tanzania, there is a need to institute steps to address factors and forms as well as impacts and challenges associated with the observed trend. This study’s aim is to use spatial urban landscape indices to analyze the spatial changes in urban forms, patterns, and rates across 11 urban centers in Tanzania over a 30-year study period (1990–2020). During the past three decades, urban lands of 11 cities and town in Tanzania have grown by a total of 480 km2. Leapfrog growth was found as the most dominant form of urban expansion in Tanzania while Dodoma, the capital city of Tanzania, had the highest rate of urban expansion when compared to all other individual cities. The most robust and significant interaction of the AWMLEI and MLEI was found in Kigoma, Arusha, Mtwara, Mafinga, and Tunduma cities. In contrast, Mbeya agricultural city, Arusha the tourist city, Tabora, and Geita Lake zone areas did show their own peculiarities revealing an interesting spatial temporal variation in rate and form of expansion. The outcome of this study reveals that the influence and management of economic and socio-cultural opportunities will be an effective tool for the determination of the rapidly expanding cities and towns of Tanzania
Geospatial Distribution and Accessibility of Primary and Secondary Schools: A case of Abbottabad City, Pakistan
No full textQuality education in isolated areas is a major issue in developing countries like Pakistan, as access to formal education is linked to improved life prospects for rural students. Among the factors for education, accessibility is school availability within a minimum spatial distance. The spatial distribution of schools is generally uneven in most of the cities of Northern Pakistan, thus limiting access to formal education at the primary and secondary level. This paper analyzes the spatial distribution of the primary and secondary schools found in the hilly terrain of Abbottabad city. Results show an uneven scattered pattern of schools and decreasing accessibility with longer travel times, at higher costs. Cost-weighted distance showed that this spatial distribution extends the travel distance by more than 5km for secondary school students living in the city. However, spatial restructuring and reorganization of schools in the study area would enhance student access to school facilities
Unsettled urbanization: spatiality of urban growth in Dodoma, Tanzania
No full textRapid urbanization has traditionally stifled socio-economic development and led to limitless urban expansion across African cities. However, limited research has focused on land use simulation and modeling as useful analytical tools to analyze, understand, and respond to urban transformation due to rapid changes. With the ongoing threat of climate change and rapid urbanization across African cities, this paper uses Dodoma, Tanzania, as a case study to (i) explore the spatial distribution of land use and urban extent between 2000 and 2022; (ii) establish the driving variables that frame and dictate patterns of land use changes; and (iii) develop a future simulation of urban land use of the city for 2050 to support sustainable urban development. We utilize the TerrSet and Land Change Modeler (LCM) models to analyze the Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) patterns from 2000 to 2022. The results indicate that the spatial extent of Dodoma urban increased by 154.61 km2 between 2000 and 2022 double the rate of inhabitant growth (5.8% per annum) during the same period. The accuracy of the actual land use was confirmed with a confusion matrix and Kappa statistics of 94.71% and 0.4916, respectively. We argue that knowledge of the current state and simulated outcomes of future urban expansion is critical to Dodoma’s future land use planning and management. Our findings provide guidelines and highlight possible options for sustainable urban land use practices in similar urbanizing African cities. We conclude by advancing a research agenda on African urbanization planning and management, drawing upon a land use modeling approach grounded in responsibility
Characterizing Urban Expansion Combining Concentric-Ring and Grid-Based Analysis for Latin American Cities
No full textSpatio-temporal characterization of urban expansion is the first step towards understanding how cities grow in space. We summarize two approaches used in urban expansion measurement, namely, concentric-ring analysis and grid-based analysis. Concentric-ring analysis divides urban areas into a series of rings, which is used to quantify the distance decay of urban elements from city centers. Grid-based analysis partitions a city into regular grids that are used to interpret local dynamics of urban growth. We combined these two approaches to characterize the urban expansion between 2000–2014 for five large Latin American cities (São Paulo, Brazil; Mexico City, Mexico; Buenos Aires, Argentina; Bogotá, Columbia; Santiago, Chile). Results show that the urban land (built-up area) density in concentric rings decreases from city centers to urban fringe, which can be well fitted by an inverse S curve. Parameters of fitting curves reflect disparities of urban extents and urban form among these five cities over time. Grid-based analysis presents the transformation of population from central to suburban areas, where new urban land mostly expands. In the global context, urban expansion in Latin America is far less rapid than countries or regions that are experiencing fast urbanization, such as Asia and Africa. Urban form of Latin American cities is particularly compact because of their rugged topographies with natural limitations
Characterizing urban expansion combining concentric-ring and grid-based analysis for Latin American Cities
No full textJournal ArticleSpatio-temporal characterization of urban expansion is the first step towards understanding
how cities grow in space. We summarize two approaches used in urban expansion measurement,
namely, concentric-ring analysis and grid-based analysis. Concentric-ring analysis divides urban
areas into a series of rings, which is used to quantify the distance decay of urban elements from
city centers. Grid-based analysis partitions a city into regular grids that are used to interpret local
dynamics of urban growth. We combined these two approaches to characterize the urban expansion
between 2000–2014 for five large Latin American cities (São Paulo, Brazil; Mexico City, Mexico;
Buenos Aires, Argentina; Bogotá, Columbia; Santiago, Chile). Results show that the urban land (built-
up area) density in concentric rings decreases from city centers to urban fringe, which can be well
fitted by an inverse S curve. Parameters of fitting curves reflect disparities of urban extents and urban
form among these five cities over time. Grid-based analysis presents the transformation of population
from central to suburban areas, where new urban land mostly expands. In the global context, urban
expansion in Latin America is far less rapid than countries or regions that are experiencing fast
urbanization, such as Asia and Africa. Urban form of Latin American cities is particularly compact
because of their rugged topographies with natural limitations
Characterizing urban expansion combining concentric-ring and grid-based analysis for Latin American Cities
No full textJournal ArticleSpatio-temporal characterization of urban expansion is the first step towards understanding
how cities grow in space. We summarize two approaches used in urban expansion measurement,
namely, concentric-ring analysis and grid-based analysis. Concentric-ring analysis divides urban
areas into a series of rings, which is used to quantify the distance decay of urban elements from
city centers. Grid-based analysis partitions a city into regular grids that are used to interpret local
dynamics of urban growth. We combined these two approaches to characterize the urban expansion
between 2000–2014 for five large Latin American cities (São Paulo, Brazil; Mexico City, Mexico;
Buenos Aires, Argentina; Bogotá, Columbia; Santiago, Chile). Results show that the urban land (built-
up area) density in concentric rings decreases from city centers to urban fringe, which can be well
fitted by an inverse S curve. Parameters of fitting curves reflect disparities of urban extents and urban
form among these five cities over time. Grid-based analysis presents the transformation of population
from central to suburban areas, where new urban land mostly expands. In the global context, urban
expansion in Latin America is far less rapid than countries or regions that are experiencing fast
urbanization, such as Asia and Africa. Urban form of Latin American cities is particularly compact
because of their rugged topographies with natural limitations
Assessing malaria attributed mortality in west and southern Africa
No full textMalaria has persistently remained a serious health and socio-economic problem in developing nations particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). There are approximately 500 million cases of malaria each year and close to one million deaths occurring mainly among children under five years. Developing countries spend a reasonable proportion of their gross domestic product (GDP) on malaria which in the end hinders their levels of development.
World Health Organizations (WHO) and partners through the Roll Back Malaria initiative (RBM) have targeted vector control, health promotion and case management (using rapid diagnostic tests and treatment with Artemisinin combination therapy) in order reduce malaria morbidity and mortality cases. Since 2002, funds for promoting malaria control activities have increased exponentially in SSA. Major donors include presidential malaria initiative (PMI) and Global fund to fight AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria (GFATM). Countries which have scaled up the recommended malaria control strategies such as insecticides-treat net (ITN) and treatment of confirmed cases have reported a decline in both morbidity and mortality especially among children. However, these statistics are based on health facilities data and yet in most developing countries many deaths occur at home and are never recorded due to inefficient vital registration systems. Monitoring the progress of such interventions requires reliable sources of data on both the transmission and infection outcome.
In malaria endemic areas, people acquire natural immunity during the early years of their life after getting exposed to repeated infections. This is observed from the reductions in the number of severe malaria-related morbidity and mortality cases especially in children >5 years. Due to the current undertakings that are aimed at reducing malaria exposure, there are concerns about shifting the disease burden to older children but the required to data to monitor this are not readily available in SSA. Low income countries have resorted to health and demographic surveillance systems (HDSS) to monitor routinely population changes and health outcomes within a defined geographical area.
In 2000, the INDEPTH, a network of HDSS integrated the Malaria Transmission Intensity and Mortality Burden Across Africa (MTIMBA) project into selected sites’ routine activities in order to assess the transmission-malaria mortality relationship taking into account the current interventions. Mortality data and other demographic characteristics were extracted from routinely collected HDSS databases. The entomological data were collected every fortnight from randomly sampled compounds over the 3 years MTIMBA period.
The MTIMBA project generated large geostatistical data that are correlated in space and time. Furthermore, the project captured longitudinal mosquito data that were characterized by many zeros especially during the dry periods. The zeros are due empty traps from a compound or when all the captured mosquitoes are not infectious. Appropriate data analysis therefore should apply models that account for spatial-temporal correlation and the excess zeros in order to avoid over or underestimation of parameters. Zero-inflated geostatistical models account for spatial-temporal correlation by introducing location-specific and time interval random effects which creates more parameters to estimate. Bayesian models implemented via Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation (MCMC) addresses fit of highly parameterized models.
This work applied zero-inflated Bayesian models to estimate malaria attributable mortality across all age-groups using large, correlated and sparse data collected from Navrongo and Manhiça HDSS between 2001 and 2004. The contributions of this thesis were (i) the description of the HDSS data characteristics and relevant methods for analysis; (ii) the spatially explicit estimates of malaria transmission intensity at monthly intervals; and (iii) the relationship between all-cause mortality and malaria transmission intensity across all age categories.
Chapter 2 described the characteristics of the MTIMBA data. These are large geostatistical, temporal, seasonal and zero-inflated data. The mortality and mosquito data were misaligned because they were captured at different compounds and time periods. Zero-inflated Bayesian spatio-temporal models are the state-of-art in handling such data. The rigorous statistical process was demonstrated by modelling sporozoite rate (SR) data from Manhiça HDSS. The analysis of the MTIMBA data was used as an avenue for building SSA capacity through course work, seminars and mentorship. Site-specific analyses are still on-going. However, the project generated data that is relevant for assessing within and between site malaria transmission heterogeneity.
The Navrongo malaria exposure surfaces described in chapter 3 were obtained from zero-inflated geostatistical models fitting separately the binomial SR data and negative binomial count data by mosquito species. All the models included space and time correlation in addition to the Climate, environmental and seasonality covariates. The entomological inoculation rate (EIR) estimates were derived as a product of predicted man biting rate and SR. Observed EIR in this district was >100 infective bites/person/year. Distance to water to bodies, day temperatures and vegetation were the main predictors of mosquito densities for the two species. The EIR maps clearly indicated that the temporal heterogeneity was stronger than the spatial variation in this area. The same situation was also observed from the analyses of the two MTIMBA sites of Rufiji (Tanzania) and Kisumu (Kenya).
Monthly malaria exposure surfaces (chapter 3) were linked to the nearest compounds where mortality was observed as described in chapter 4. Time to death data were split at monthly intervals in order to generate Bernoulli and binomial data that were modelled via logistic regression formulations. Spatio-temporal models were fitted to obtain age-specific mortality risk estimates. The model considered 2 covariates; natural logarithm transformed EIR estimates with their measurement errors and age. ITN variable was only included in neonates, post-neonates and child models. The analysis showed a positive log-linear relationship between all-cause mortality and malaria exposure in all the age groups but the association was only important among children (1-4 years) and people >= 60 years. ITN use showed a protective effect among all the under five children, confirming what was observed in Rufiji and Kisumu HDSS.
The methods used in estimating malaria exposure surfaces and mortality risks in chapters 3 and 4 were extended to Manhiça HDSS (Mozambique) data to describe the mortality-malaria transmission relationship for this area (chapter 5). The spatio-temporal age-specific models considered EIR estimates with their measurement errors (to account for the predictive uncertainty) and age as model covariates.
The distance to the nearest water bodies was the only important common predictor of An. funestus and An. gambiae mosquito densities. Malaria transmission intensity declined consistently in this area. The Model-based results indicated a positive log-linear relationship between all-cause mortality and malaria exposure across all age groups namely; the neonates (0-28 days), post-neonates (1-11months), children (1-4years), young people (5-14 years), adults (15- 59years) and old age (>=60 years).
This work contributes to further understand of malaria-mortality relationships. A positive association between mortality and malaria exposure among the under fives is consistent with what was reported from the MTIMBA sites of Rufiji and Kisumu. Completion of the remaining site-specific analyses followed by a meta-analysis will make a great contribution to malaria epidemiology. Further work however, should consider cohort analysis in order to ascertain whether malaria control interventions have caused a shift in the age of acquired immunity
