1,484 research outputs found
Predictive accuracy of political stock markets: Empirical evidence from an European perspective
No full textIn a meta study of 25 political stock markets conducted in Germany in the last decade we analyze their predictive success. Although the predictions of political stock markets are highly correlated with the corresponding polls, the markets are able to aggregate additional information. One explanatory variable for variations in predictive success of the German stock markets relative to the polls is market efficiency. Even though the overall predictions of the political stock markets are quite reliable on the aggregate level we find systematic prediction errors on the contract level that can be attributed to the vote share size and to individual trader biases. --political stock markets,forecasting,market efficiency,proportional representation
Zwanzig Jahre duales Rundfunksystem - und was nun?
No full textStock M. Zwanzig Jahre duales Rundfunksystem - und was nun? In: Rundfunkrat des WDR, ed. Reinhard Grätz - 20 Jahre Vorsitzender des WDR Rundfunkrates. Köln: WDR; 2005: 140-142
Quantifying the effect of Warmblood Fragile Foal Syndrome on foaling rates in the German riding horse population
No full textAwareness of breeders of Warmblood Fragile Foal Syndrome (WFFS) increased after a widely discussed case in the USA in 2018. The hereditary connective tissue disorder, first described by a US research group in 2011 and for which a commercial genetic test exists since 2013, is caused by a point mutation in the PLOD1 gene, inherited autosomal recessively. Extension of molecular genetic testing and reporting of test results of organized horse breeders to their studbooks implies new opportunities for analyses. In Germany, data are centrally accessible through the integrated equine data base allowing comprehensive and population-wide investigation of the role of WFFS. The objective of this study was statistical testing for associations between WFFS and reproductive performance of German riding horses and quantifying possible differences between WFFS carriers and non-carriers, also in respect of performance traits. For this purpose, covering data from 2008 to 2020 were provided by ten German studbooks, so almost 400,000 coverings and resulting foaling rates were available for multiple analyses of variance with general and mixed linear models using procedures GLM, MIXED and HPMIXED of SAS software (version 9.2). Published breeding values of stallions were used for respective comparisons of riding horse performance. Assuming a WFFS carrier frequency of 9.5–15.0% in Warmblood horses, Hardy Weinberg principle implied an expected difference of 2.4–3.7% in the foaling rates of carrier and non-carrier stallions. Our results provided statistical evidence of detrimental effects of WFFS on the reproductive performance of Warmblood horses with about 2.7% lower average foaling rate in carriers of the mutant allele than in WFFS free sires, if mated to an average mare population. Indications of favorable dressage performance of WFFS carriers were found. Reported WFFS cases indicate only the tip of the iceberg and assessing the impact of WFFS on reproduction requires consideration of premature foal losses
The Power of Language and Silence: Reinhard Jirgl’s Die Stille
No full textReinhard Jirgl (1953–) is an emphatically German author. He insists that German is “die Sprache in der ich denke, spreche und schreibe,”¹ and the award of several prestigious prizes (including the Büchner Prize in 2010) has confirmed his place in the German literary tradition. Yet Jirgl uses the German language in consistently and characteristically iconoclastic ways to challenge the authority of historical, political, and institutional discourse. Precisely because his work went against the ideological prescriptions of the East German state, it remained unpublished in the GDR, where Jirgl lived and worked. Since unification he has become a prolific author,..
Conditional Correlations in the Returns on Oil Companies Stock Prices and Their Determinants
No full textThe identification of the forces that drive stock returns and the dynamics of their associated volatilities is a major concern in empirical economics and finance. This analysis is particularly relevant for determining optimal hedging strategies based on whether shocks to the volatilities of returns of oil companies stock prices, relevant stock market indexes and oil spot and futures prices are high or low, and positively or negatively correlated. This paper investigates the correlations of volatilities in the stock price returns and their determinants for the most important integrated oil companies, namely Bp (BP), Chevron-Texaco (CVX), Eni (ENI), Exxon-Mobil (XOM), Royal Dutch (RD) and Total-Fina Elf (TFE). We measure the actual co-risk in stock returns and their determinants “within” and “between” the different oil companies, using multivariate cointegration techniques in modelling the conditional mean, as well as multivariate GARCH models for the conditional variances. We focus first on the determinants of the market value of each company using the cointegrated VAR/VECM methodology. Then we specifiy the conditional variances of VECM residuals with the Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) multivariate GARCH model of Bollerslev (1990) and the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) multivariate GARCH model of Engle (2002). The “within” and “between” DCC indicate low to high/extreme interdependence between the volatilities of companies’ stock returns and the relevant stock market indexes or Brent oil prices.Constant conditional correlations, Dynamic conditional correlations, Multivariate GARCH models, Stock price indexes, Brent oil prices, Spot and futures prices, Multivariate cointegration, VECM
Rundfunkfreiheit nach dem Grundgesetz: Verfassungsrechtliche Richtwerte für nichtkommerziellen Lokalrundfunk
No full textStock M. Rundfunkfreiheit nach dem Grundgesetz: Verfassungsrechtliche Richtwerte für nichtkommerziellen Lokalrundfunk. In: Behnisch R, ed. Macht - Markt - Meinungsfreiheit. Bürgerfunk als dritte Säule in der Rundfunklandschaft?. Loccumer Protokolle. Vol 99,12. Rehburg-Loccum: Evang. Akad. Loccum; 1999: 39-50
Quark Matter: The Beginning
No full textSatz H, Stock R. Quark Matter: The Beginning. Nuclear Physics A. 2016;956:898-901.This is an invited contribution of two early organizers' memoirs about the beginnings of the Quark Matter conference series. [Editors
Nominalist Heuristics and Economic Theory
No full textThis paper introduces a new theoretic entity, a nominalist heuristic, defined as a focus on prominent numbers, indices or ratios. Abstractions used in the evaluation stage of decision making typically involve nominalist heuristics that are incompatible with expected utility theory which excludes the evaluation stage, and are also incompatible with prospect theory which assumes that, while the evaluation procedure can involve systematic mistakes, the overall decision situation is nevertheless sufficiently simple: 1) for economists and psychologists to identify what is a mistake, and 2) to be compatible with maximisation. But in the typical complex situation giving rise to nominalist heuristics neither 1) nor 2) hold, and therefore what is required is a fundamentally different class of models that allow for the progressive anticipated changes in knowledge ahead faced under risk and uncertainty, namely models under the umbrella of SKAT, the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory. A sequel paper. Pope et al 2009b, shows field and laboratory evidence of heuristics in the form of prominent numbers entering exchange rate determination.nominalism, money illusion, heuristic, unpredictability, experiment, SKAT the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory, prominent numbers, prominent indices, prominent ratios, equality, historical benchmarks, complexity, decision costs, evaluation
- …
