1,721,186 research outputs found
Perspectives on model forecasts of the 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa: lessons and the way forward
Full text linkThe unprecedented impact and modeling efforts associated with the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa provides a unique opportunity to document the performances and caveats of forecasting approaches used in near-real time for generating evidence and to guide policy. A number of international academic groups have developed and parameterized mathematical models of disease spread to forecast the trajectory of the outbreak. These modeling efforts often relied on limited epidemiological data to derive key transmission and severity parameters, which are needed to calibrate mechanistic models. Here, we provide a perspective on some of the challenges and lessons drawn from these efforts, focusing on (1) data availability and accuracy of early forecasts; (2) the ability of different models to capture the profile of early growth dynamics in local outbreaks and the importance of reactive behavior changes and case clustering; (3) challenges in forecasting the long-term epidemic impact very early in the outbreak; and (4) ways to move forward. We conclude that rapid availability of aggregated population-level data and detailed information on a subset of transmission chains is crucial to characterize transmission patterns, while ensemble-forecasting approaches could limit the uncertainty of any individual model. We believe that coordinated forecasting efforts, combined with rapid dissemination of disease predictions and underlying epidemiological data in shared online platforms, will be critical in optimizing the response to current and future infectious disease emergencies
Influenza-related mortality in the Italian elderly: No decline associated with increasing vaccination coverage
No full textWe investigated trends in influenza-related mortality among the elderly population in Italy associated with increased vaccination coverage. Using Italian vital statistics data, we studied monthly death rates for pneumonia and influenza and all-cause for persons ≥65 years of age by 5-year age groups for 1970–2001. Using a classic seasonal regression modelling approach, we estimated the age-specific seasonal excess mortality rates among Italian elderly as a measure of influenza-related deaths. We studied trends in excess mortality after adjusting for population aging and analyzing separately seasons dominated by the severe A/H3N2 subtype and those dominated by other circulating influenza subtypes. After the late 1980s, no decline in age-adjusted excess mortality was associated with increasing influenza vaccination distribution primarily targeted for the elderly. These findings suggest that either the vaccine failed to protect the elderly against mortality (possibly due to immune senescence), and/or the vaccination efforts did not adequately target the frailest elderly. As in the US, our study challenges current strategies to best protect the elderly against mortality, warranting the need for better controlled trials with alternative vaccination strategies
The associations between tuberculosis incidence & the prevalence of risk factors in 133 countries
No full textTuberculosis (TB) remains a global health problem strongly associated with biological, social and economic risk factors. Addressing the risk factors is central to global TB control, but the associations must be established further. We obtained TB incidence rates in 2014 for 133 countries and used correlation and regression analyses to investigate the associations between incidence and 10 indicators related to the major risk factors for TB and 1 TB control efforts indicator. Associations were analysed globally and for subgroups of countries. Globally, all but one indicator were significantly associated with national TB incidence (p<0.05), while varying by subgroup. 5 of 10 significant correlates were retained as predictors of incidence rates in the multivariable regression model after adjustment (95% CI, p<0.2). The model indicates that incidence was globally lower in countries with higher coverage of TB treatment and essential health services and higher in countries with greater prevalence of undernourishment, smoking and HIV. Globally, both TB control efforts, the major biological risk factors and coverage of essential health services is important predictors of national TB burdens
Tuberculosis - a global epidemic. A qualitative case study of the characteristics of the epidemic
No full textA Retrospective Cohort Study on Infant Respiratory Tract Infection Hospitalizations and Recurrent Wheeze and Asthma Risk: Impact of Respiratory Syncytial Virus
No full textBackground Infant respiratory syncytial virus infection (RSV) has been associated with asthma later in life. We explored the risk of recurrent wheeze or asthma in children with infant RSV-associated hospitalization compared to other respiratory infections. Methods We performed a retrospective cohort study using Danish national hospital discharge registers. Infants younger than 6 months, born between January 1995 and October 2018, and with a RSV hospital admission were compared to infants hospitalized for injuries, non-RSV acute upper respiratory tract infection (AURTI), pneumonia and other respiratory pathogens, nonpathogen-coded lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI), pertussis, or nonspecific respiratory infections. Infants were followed until recurrent wheeze or asthma diagnosis, death, migration, age 10 years, or study end. We estimated cumulative incidence rate ratios (CIRR) and hazard ratios (HR) adjusted for sex, age at inclusion, hospital length of stay (LOS), maternal smoking, 5-minute APGAR score (APGAR5), prematurity, and congenital risk factors (CRF). Results We included 68 130 infants, of whom 20 920 (30.7%) had RSV hospitalization. The cumulative incidence rate of recurrent wheeze or asthma was 16.6 per 1000 person-years after RSV hospitalization, higher than after injury (CIRR, 2.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.48-2.92), AURTI (CIRR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.34-1.58), or pertussis (CIRR, 2.32; 95% CI, 1.85-2.91), similar to pneumonia and other respiratory pathogens (CIRR, 1.15; 95% CI, .99-1.34) and LRTI (CIRR, 0.79; 95% CI, .60-1.04), but lower than nonspecific respiratory infections (CIRR, 0.79; 95% CI, .73-.87). Adjusted HRs for recurrent wheeze or asthma after RSV hospitalization compared to injuries decreased from 2.37 (95% CI, 2.08-2.70) for 0 to <1 year to 1.23 (95% CI, .88-1.73) for 6 to <10 years for term-born children, and from 1.48 (95% CI, 1.09-2.00) to 0.60 (95% CI, .25-1.43) for preterm-born children. Sex, maternal smoking, LOS, CRF, and APGAR5 were independent risk factors. Conclusions Infant RSV hospitalization is associated with recurrent wheeze and asthma hospitalization, predominantly at preschool age. If causal, RSV prophylaxis, including vaccines, may significantly reduce disease burden of wheeze and asthma
- …
