209 research outputs found
Ep2.The changing faces of disasters in Uganda: Daniel Ortega and Simon Okello with Rumana Kabir
No full textThe impact of CAFTA on poverty, distribution, and growth in El Salvador:
No full text"In this paper we develop a dynamic CGE model to examine the impact of CAFTA on production, employment and poverty in El Salvador. We model four aspects of the agreement: tariff reductions, quotas, changes in the rules of origin for maquila and more generous treatment of foreign investment. The model shows that CAFTA has a small positive effect on growth, employment and poverty. Tariff reduction under CAFTA adds about .2% to the growth rate of output up to 2020. Liberalizing the rules of origin for maquila has a bigger positive effect on growth and poverty mainly because it raises the demand for exportables produced by unskilled labor. We model the foreign investment effect by assuming that capital inflows go directly to capital formation. This raises the growth rate of output by over 1% per year and lowers poverty incidence in 2020 by over 25% relative to what it would be in the baseline scenario. These simulations say something important about the growth process in a country like El Salvador in which it seems reasonable to assume that there is idle unskilled labor willing and able to work at a fixed real wage. In such an economy, growth can be increased in one of three ways. First, already employed resources can be moved to sectors where they are more productive. That is what the tariff reductions under CAFTA do, and the result is positive but small. Second, the structure of demand can be changed in such a way as to increase the demand for previously unemployed unskilled labor. That is what the maquila simulation does, because maquila uses a lot of unskilled labor relative to skilled labor and capital. Finally the supply of capital can be increased by increasing the rate of capital formation. That is what happens in the FDI simulation." from Authors' AbstractCAFTA, Trade agreements, Growth, Poverty, CGE model,
Benefit-cost analysis of Uganda's clonal coffee replanting program: An ex-ante analysis
No full text"The Ugandan coffee industry is facing some serious challenges, including low international prices in the international coffee market, aging coffee trees and declining productivity, and, more recently, the appearance of coffee-wilt disease, which have all contributed to the decline in both the quantity and value of coffee exports. The government of Uganda, through the Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA), in 1993/94 started a coffee-replanting program to both replace coffee trees that were old or affected by coffee-wilt and expand coffee production into other suitable areas in northern and eastern Uganda. This program seems to be helping to both combat the industry's problems and reverse the declining trends. However, the UCDA announced in 2004 that it was withdrawing from the replanting program in the 2004/05 season (it had supported nursery operators and purchased and distributed free seedlings to farmers), so the program's achievements may not last. This paper estimates the economic returns (benefit–cost ratio) of the coffee-replanting program, particularly replanting with clonal varieties, and analyzes the welfare implications of the decision to withdraw. We find that the internal rate of return (IRR) and benefit–cost ratio are very high, about 50 percent and 3.7 respectively, suggesting that the replanting program in Uganda is very beneficial to the livelihoods of coffee farmers, the coffee sub-sector, and the economy as a whole. The largest benefits occur in the central region, where the bulk of coffee is grown, followed by the eastern and western regions. The largest return on investment occurs in the eastern region, followed by the central and western regions. Sensitivity analyses show that the results (that is, the net benefits) are robust with respect to the assumptions made, including demand and supply elasticities and level of domestic consumption. Although the results are sensitive to farm production costs and coffee yields, the program still improves welfare. Taken all together, the results suggest that if the government withdraws from the replanting program without putting place adequate alternative measures to ensure the program's sustainability, welfare will be severely reduced in coffee-growing areas." from Authors' AbstractClonal coffee, Benefit-cost analysis, IRR, DREAM, Agricultural research,
Spatial coordination in public good allocation: Nonparametric evidence from decentralized Indonesia
No full text"This paper examines dynamics in public good accessibility and cross-community inequality in Indonesia, using village-level panel data from 2000 to 2006 from their decentralized public-good allocation system. The introduction of decentralization makes public-good investment dependent on initial local income and endowment, and makes it difficult to coordinate investment decisions across communities. Our analysis also shows that possible strategic interactions among communities connected with transportation infrastructure (externalities) implies spatial divergence. Empirical evidence on education and heath facilities, however, demonstrates that during the decentralized period, (1) accessibility to school has improved and school investments were effectively coordinated over space; (2) hospital access has improved only marginally; but (3) per-capita availability of schools and local medical clinics (puskesmas) in the community shows convergence toward low-level equilibria. Despite the coordination in spatial allocation even in the decentralization period (observed in intervillage accessibility), endogenous population mobility and growth partially cancel the benefits of the coordinated efforts in public-good allocation. This point requires further policy attention." from Authors' AbstractPublic goods, Education, health, Spatial coordination, Poverty dynamics,
Impact of contract farming on income: Linking small farmers, packers, and supermarket in China
No full text"Contract farming is seen by proponents as a way to raise small-farm income by delivering technology and market information to small farmers, incorporating them into remunerative new markets. Critics, however, see it as a strategy for agribusiness firms to pass production risk to farmers, taking advantage of an unequal bargaining relationship. There is also concern that contract farming will worsen rural income inequality by favoring larger farmers. This study examines these issues in Shandong Province, China, using survey data collected from 162 apple and green onion farmers and interviews with four contracting firms in 2005. Using a probit model to estimate participation in a contract-farming scheme, we find little evidence that contracting firms prefer to work with larger farmers, though all farms in the area are quite small. Furthermore, using a Heckman selection-correction model to control for possible selection bias, we find that contract farmers earn significantly more than independent farmers after controlling for household labor availability, education, farm size, and other characteristics. Finally, we find that the way contracting contributes to farm income varies between commodities: contract apple growers benefit from higher yields (presumably due to technical assistance), while contract green onion growers receive higher prices (presumably due to better quality). These results suggest that contract farming can help small farmers raise their incomes and gain access to the growing urban and export markets. Questions remain regarding the number of farmers that are, or could be, brought into similar contract arrangements." from Authors' AbstractContract farming, Horticulture, exports, Small farmers, Supermarkets,
Determinants of smallholder commercialization of food crops: Theory and evidence from Ethiopia
No full text"In this paper, we develop a theoretical farm household model of food crop production and marketing decisions, derive testable hypotheses concerning the determinants of these decisions, and test these hypotheses, using data on cereal production and marketing collected from a nationally representative survey of 7,186 farm households in Ethiopia. Focusing on production and marketing decisions for teff and maize, the two most important crops in Ethiopia, we find that most producers of these crops are either autarkic or net buyers (especially for maize) and that net buyers and autarkic households are poorer in many respects than net sellers. This implies that interventions to increase cereal productivity will favorably affect distribution for most producers. The econometric analysis shows that increasing production of teff and maize is the most important factor contributing to increased sales, and that increased smallholder access to roads, land, livestock, farm equipment, and traders is key to enabling increased smallholder production and commercialization of these crops." from Authors' AbstractSmallholder production, Small farmers, household consumption, Market access, Commercial behavior, Market participation, Cereal crops,
The impact of CAFTA on employment, production, and poverty in Honduras:
No full text"In this paper we develop a dynamic CGE model to examine the impact of CAFTA on production, employment and poverty in Honduras. We model four aspects of the agreement: tariff reductions, quotas, changes in the rules of origin for maquila and more generous treatment of foreign investment. We first show that trade liberalization under CAFTA has a positive effect on growth, employment and poverty but the effect is small. What really matters for Honduras is the assembly (maquila) industry. CAFTA liberalized the rules of origin for imports into this industry. That raises the growth rate of output by 1.4% and reduces poverty by 11% in 2020 relative to what it would otherwise have been. Increasing capital formation through an increase in foreign investment in response to CAFTA has an even larger impact on growth, employment and poverty. These simulations say something important about the growth process in a country like Honduras in which it seems reasonable to assume that there is underemployed, unskilled labor willing and able to work more at a fixed real wage. In such an economy changing the structure of demand in favor of sectors that use a lot of unskilled labor will have a big impact on growth. That is what the maquila simulation does, because maquila uses a lot of unskilled labor relative to skilled labor and capital. Alternatively the supply of capital can be increased by increasing the rate of capital formation. Either of these two has a far larger impact on growth and poverty than tariff reductions alone." from Authors' AbstractCAFTA, Growth, Poverty, CGE model,
Improved hydrological understanding of a semi-arid subtropical transboundary basin using multiple techniques – the Incomati River Basin
No full textThis study aims at improving the hydrological process understanding of the semi-arid and transboundary Incomati river basin to enable better water management. Comprehensive statistical and trend analysis of rainfall and streamflow were conducted, and the Indicators of Hydrological Alteration tool was deployed to describe the streamflow regime and trends over time. Land use and land cover change, particularly the conversion of natural vegetation into forest plantation, the expansion of irrigated agriculture and the flow regulation due to dam operation were identified as critical drivers of flow regime alteration. Hydrograph separation using long-term hydrochemical data at seasonal scale, and hydrochemical and isotope data at event scale were performed to quantify runoff components. A novel methodology to calibrate recursive digital filters using routinely collected water quality data was developed and tested in the catchment. This method allows for estimation of daily baseflow from readily available daily streamflow data. Dominant runoff generation zones were mapped using the Height Above Nearest Drainage approach. The hydrological model STREAM was then employed, informed by the runoff generation zones mapping and the process understanding gained in the catchment, as well as remote sensing data. The study provides the basis for better operational water management in the catchment.Dissertation submitted in fulfillment of the requirements of the Board for Doctorates of Delft University of Technology and of the Academic Board of the UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education.Water Resource
Trading millet and sorghum genetic resources women vendors in the village fairs of San and Souentza, Mali:
No full text"In Mali, liberalization of seed markets for sorghum and millet, the staple food crops, has not advanced at the same rate or with the same measurable success as liberalization of grain markets. Most seed of these crops is uncertified and continues to be supplied to farmers by farmers, according to clan and ethno-linguistic group. After poor harvests or when replanting after a dry spell, farmers rely on local markets for grain as sources of seed. This paper summarizes the findings of a vendor survey conducted in two marketsheds during weekly fairs. No certified seed is sold. Almost all vendors are women who are also farmers. Variety integrity is maintained particularly for millet seed in the marketshed of the Sahelian zone, where the range of variety adaptation is very limited. Grain that is suitable for seed is brought to market directly from granaries. Varieties are identified by their provenance. Socially prescribed behavior is apparent in price-fixing, price discounts, procurement practices, and the spatial organization of vendors. Preliminary hypotheses are tested with a simple regression. Marketshed, which is highly correlated with the ethnic composition of the population, agro-ecology, market infrastructure and crop sold, has a dominant impact on quantities sold. Quantities sold do not respond to expected prices. Greater specialization of the vendor in trade as compared to farming, younger age, and additional years in school positively influence amounts sold. A better comprehension of this type of trade could contribute to policies that improve the access of poor farmers to valuable crop genetic resources, enhancing their seed security and productivity." from Author's AbstractAgricultural development, Informal sector, Seed markets, Traders, Landraces, Millet, Sorghum, Women, Biodiversity,
Asian-driven resource booms in Africa: Rethinking the impacts on development
No full text"Today's resource boom in Africa, driven by Asian economic growth, offers new opportunities for resource-rich African countries. Contrary to the experience of previous booms, however, most mining profits now accrue to foreign companies, leaving little room for governments to use revenues for pro-poor investments or to mitigate adverse distributional impacts. Taking Zambia as a case study, this paper shows that despite privatization, Dutch disease remains a valid concern and may hamper economic diversification, worsen income distribution, and undermine poverty reduction strategies. Mining royalties must, therefore, be increased and used to finance growth-inducing investments that encourage pro-poor economic diversification, else many African countries will remain caught in a resource trap." from Author's AbstractDutch disease, Resource booms, Privatization, Income distribution,
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