254 research outputs found
The Impact of Energy Markets on the EU Agricultural Sector
No full textThe objective of this study is to analyze the impact of crude oil prices on the EU-27 agricultural sector in an era when the biofuels sector is expanding because of the policy initiatives taken by the EU Commission and member states. To this end, first a baseline is set up for the EU-27 ethanol, grain, and dried distillers grains markets. In the next step, two different scenarios are run. The first scenario incorporates a $10- per-barrel increase in the EU-27 crude oil price with the ethanol import tariffs in place. The second scenario incorporates the same shock with the ethanol import tariffs removed. In the first scenario, higher crude oil prices increase ethanol consumption, production, and therefore grain prices. In the second scenario, the impact of trade liberalisation is larger than the impact of the higher crude oil price. So, grain prices decline in this scenario despite an expansion in ethanol consumption. If there were a high enough crude oil price shock, which would affect the EU-27 ethanol market more than trade liberalisation, the net impact on grain, feed, and food prices from the crude oil price shock would be mitigated by the increased trade from trade liberalisation. The study shows that the impact of energy prices on the EU-27 agricultural sector is increasing with the emergence of the biofuels sector. It also illustrates the importance of trade policy in responding to higher crude oil and grain prices.Ethanol, energy prices, trade liberalisation, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,
The Ethanol Decade: An Expansion of U.S. Corn Production, 2000-09
No full textThe recent 9-billion-gallon increase in corn-based ethanol production, which resulted from a combination of rising gasoline prices and a suite of Federal bioenergy policies, provides evidence of how farmers altered their land-use decisions in response to increased demand for corn. As some forecasts had suggested, corn acreage increased mostly on farms that previously specialized in soybeans. Other farms, however, offset this shift by expanding soybean production. Farm-level data reveal that the simultaneous net expansion of corn and soybean acreage resulted from a reduction in cotton acreage, a shift from uncultivated hay to cropland, and the expansion of double cropping (consecutively producing two crops of either like or unlike commodities on the same land within the same year).Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS), bioenergy, ethanol, indirect effects, land use, corn production, environmental impacts, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,
China-U.S. Potential Non-food Ethanol Exportation
No full textTo reduce national oil dependency, ethanol has been given a center stage of U.S. energy sources. The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program was launched to increase the volume of renewable gasoline from 9 billion gallons in 2008 to 36 billion gallons by 2012, among which 15 billion are corn-based ethanol, while U.S. corn-based ethanol can hardly achieve this level. There is a trend that indicates U.S. importing ethanol from other countries, so a bilateral trade system has been established between U.S. and Brazil since 2003. The annual import is 211 million gallons in 2008 (USDC, 2009). Nevertheless, this amount is far away from the target, and the worldwide food shortage called us to divert our attention from fuel to food. China, as the third largest ethanol producer, has extreme ethanol growth potential with low production costs and large sources of cassava, which is a non-food feedstock for ethanol. This paper uses Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to measure and compare the efficiency of ethanol production in China and Brazil. To estimate the extent output can be proportionally expanded without altering the input quantities employed in each country. The output orientated method has been developed with annual ethanol production from the inputs-- land for ethanol crops, agricultural labor force and capacity of ethanol production. The DEA results show that China has been more efficient in ethanol production than Brazil since the year 2007. This means China has comparative advantage over Brazil in producing ethanol, hence U.S. can import from China instead of Brazil in the future.Ethanol, Efficiency, Non-food, Productivity, Feedstocks, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Productivity Analysis, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,
Impact of United States Corn-Based Ethanol Production on Land Use
No full textThis study measures the impact of corn-based ethanol production in the United States on land use in other countries, or indirect land use. Indirect land use is a change from non-cropland to cropland (e.g. deforestation) that may occur in response to increasing scarcity of cropland. As farmers worldwide respond to higher crop prices in order to maintain the global food supply and demand balance, pristine lands are cleared and converted to new cropland to replace the crops for feed and food that were diverted elsewhere to biofuel production. The results show that increasing ethanol production in the US has a positive and significant relation to U.S corn price. However, U.S. corn price does not have a significant impact on changes in corn acreage in Brazil and other countries such as Canada, Japan and China. Although many authors have hypothesized that increased ethanol production in the U.S. will increase corn prices, which will result in increased change in land use in other countries, these results suggest that the effect is minimal at best. This is important because although production of ethanol for fuel is often criticized for negatively impacting the environment because of indirect land use, this study was unable to prove the existence of indirect land use.ethanol, indirect land use, Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, Land Economics/Use, Marketing,
Policy-induced market distortions along agricultural value chains: Evidence from Ethiopia and Nigeria
No full textIn developing countries where agriculture comprises a significant part of the GDP, such as Nigeria and Ethiopia, agrifood value chains are very important, and the livelihoods of smallholder farmers depend on their development and performance. Agricultural and trade policies have implications well beyond the farm, including for consumers, producers, traders, and processors. In this context, it is necessary to measure the impact of policies along the entire agrifood value chain of a commodity in order to minimize unintended consequences of policies for all value chain actors
Impact of energy prices and cellulosic biomass supply on agriculture, energy, and the environment: An integrated modeling approach
No full textThe accelerated growth in biofuel markets has both created and reinforced linkages between agriculture and energy. The evolution of biofuel markets over the next 10–20 years and the implications for energy, agriculture, and the environment are uncertain. Building on an integrated agriculture–energy modeling framework, this study analyzes a baseline and three alternative scenarios: two scenarios based on energy prices (crude oil and natural gas) and one based on assumptions regarding cellulosic biomass availability. By examining the impact of scenarios driven by (a) changes in the energy sector and (b) changes in the agricultural sector, we can compare the differential effects on biofuels markets, commodity prices and quantities in each sector, and CO2 emissions. Scenario comparisons show biofuel markets affected more by crude oil prices than natural gas prices. However, higher natural gas prices shift the biofuel production mix away from corn-grain based to more cellulosic ethanol via multiple mechanisms. Alternatively, the scenario with no cellulosic feedstock lowers total ethanol production and raises ethanol and corn prices. In terms of environmental impacts, higher ethanol levels driven by higher oil prices lead to lower CO2 emissions. In comparison, the no cellulosic scenario results in the highest CO2 trajectory relative to the baseline.JEL classification: C61; Q47; Q42; Q54; Q11; Q16
This article is published as Dodder, Rebecca S., P. Ozge Kaplan, Amani Elobeid, Simla Tokgoz, Silvia Secchi, and Lyubov A. Kurkalova. "Impact of energy prices and cellulosic biomass supply on agriculture, energy, and the environment: An integrated modeling approach." Energy Economics 51 (2015): 77-87. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2015.06.008.
Works produced by employees of the U.S. Government as part of their official duties are not copyrighted within the U.S. The content of this document is not copyrighted
Impact of Energy Markets on the EU Agricultural Sector, The
No full textThe objective of this study is to analyze the impact of crude oil prices on the EU agricultural sector in an era when the biofuels sector is expanding because of policy initiatives and the desire to find alternative fuel sources. To this end, first a baseline is set up for the EU ethanol, grain, and dried distillers grains markets. In the next step, two different scenarios are run. The first scenario incorporates a 10-Euros-per-barrel increase in the EU crude oil price with the ethanol import tariffs in place. The second scenario incorporates the same shock with the ethanol import tariffs removed. In the first scenario, higher crude oil prices increase ethanol consumption, production, and therefore grain prices. In the second scenario, the impact of trade liberalisation is larger than the impact of the higher crude oil price. So, grain prices decline in this scenario despite an expansion in ethanol consumption. If there were a high enough crude oil price shock, which would affect the EU ethanol market more than trade liberalisation, the net impact on grain, feed, and food prices from the crude oil price shock would be mitigated by the increased trade from trade liberalisation. The study shows that the impact of energy prices on the EU agricultural sector is increasing with the emergence of the biofuels sector. It also illustrates the importance of trade policy in responding to higher crude oil and grain prices.bioeconomic models, energy, trade analysis and policy.
The Impact of Energy Markets on the EU Agricultural Sector
No full textThe objective of this study is to analyze the impact of crude oil prices on the EU agricultural sector in an era when the biofuels sector is expanding because of policy initiatives and the desire to find alternative fuel sources. To this end, first a baseline is set up for the EU ethanol, grain, and dried distillers grains markets. In the next step, two different scenarios are run. The first scenario incorporates a 10-Euros-per-barrel increase in the EU crude oil price with the ethanol import tariffs in place. The second scenario incorporates the same shock with the ethanol import tariffs removed. In the first scenario, higher crude oil prices increase ethanol consumption, production, and therefore grain prices. In the second scenario, the impact of trade liberalisation is larger than the impact of the higher crude oil price. So, grain prices decline in this scenario despite an expansion in ethanol consumption. If there were a high enough crude oil price shock, which would affect the EU ethanol market more than trade liberalisation, the net impact on grain, feed, and food prices from the crude oil price shock would be mitigated by the increased trade from trade liberalisation. The study shows that the impact of energy prices on the EU agricultural sector is increasing with the emergence of the biofuels sector. It also illustrates the importance of trade policy in responding to higher crude oil and grain prices.</p
Distortions to agricultural incentives along value chains
No full textDevelopment of agricultural value chains is necessary to help smallholder farmers in Africa. Domestic agricultural policies and trade policies impact all economic agents along the value chain, from farmers to traders to consumers. Thus, it is critical to understand the impact of policy distortions to agricultural incentives along the complete value chain. This AGRODEP Technical Note provides a description of the Nominal Rate of Protection methodology that can be utilized to analyze agricultural policies in a value chain context. It also provides a description of the Incentives along Value Chains (IVC) Toolbox in Excel, developed to aid AGRODEP researchers in conducting this type of analysis with a focus on agriculture
EU Enlargement and Technology Transfer to New Member States
No full textThe European Union (EU) accomplished its biggest enlargement process in 2004 in terms of the number of countries, area, and population. This study focuses on the impact of enlargement, the resulting technology transfer on the grain sectors of the New Member States (NMS), and the consequent welfare implications. The study finds that EU enlargement has important implications for the EU and the NMS, but its impact on the world grain markets is minimal. The results show that producers in the NMS gain from accession because of higher prices, whereas consumers in most NMS face a welfare loss. Incorporating technology transfer into the accession increases the welfare gain of producers despite falling prices because of the larger supply shift. The loss of welfare for consumers in most NMS is lower in this case because of the decline in grain prices.</p
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