1,721,016 research outputs found
Re-sampling techniques for estimating the distribution of descriptive statistics of functional data
No full textBayesian bandwidth estimation for a nonparametric functional regression model with unknown error density
No full textGrouped time-series forecasting with an application to regional infant mortality counts
No full textWe describe two methods for forecasting a grouped time series, which provides point forecasts that are aggregated appropriately across different levels of the hierarchy. Using the regional infant mortality counts in Australia, we investigate the one-step-ahead to ten-step-ahead point forecast accuracy, and examine statistical significance of the point forecast accuracy between methods. Furthermore, we introduce a novel bootstrap methodology for constructing point-wise prediction interval in a grouped time series, investigate the interval forecast accuracy, and examine the statistical significance of the interval forecast accurac
Directions of impact of Scottish independence on migration: a survey of experts
No full textThe outcome of the 2014 Scottish referendum on the constitutional future of the United Kingdom (UK) may have noticeable impact on future migration to and from Scotland. This briefing addresses some of the issues that are currently being investigated by the ESRC Centre for Population Change, examining the possible effects of Scottish independence on internal and international migration. In particular, it presents selected results of an expert survey on future migration trends carried out amongst the members of the academic community and civil service in Scotland, which have been used to inform forecasts of migration into and out of Scotland, especially with regard to their uncertainty
A multilevel functional data method for forecasting population, with an application to the United Kingdom
No full textForecasting migration in Scotland: potential impact of independence on the future trends
No full textMigration to and from Scotland could potentially be affected by the outcome of the 2014 Scottish referendum on the constitutional future of the United Kingdom. The likelihood and extent of changes in migration have not been thoroughly analysed to date. This briefing paper presents selected outcomes of the analyses carried out by the ESRC Centre for Population Change on the possible effects of Scottish independence on internal and international migration. In particular, it aims to describe the uncertainty of future migration taking into account most of the available information. This includes the available historical data on migration, as well as opinions from academic and civil service experts in Scotland on future migration trends
Forecasting Scottish migration in the context of the 2014 constitutional change debate
No full textMigration to and from Scotland might be affected by the outcome of the 2014 Scottish referendum on the constitutional future of the United Kingdom. This potential change in migration has not been thoroughly analysed to date. The aim of this paper is thus to present a set of predictions of the possible effects of Scottish independence on internal and international migration. In particular, different sources of uncertainty of future migration flows are examined. The presented forecasts are based on the available historical data on migration flows, as well as on the opinions of a panel of experts on future migration trends. Bayesian statistical inference is used to combine different sources of uncertainty in a coherent manner. The results indicate that there is substantial uncertainty about future migration to and from Scotland, which increases with the forecast horizon. The most uncertain flow is international immigration to Scotland. Emigration from Scotland is more likely than not to increase in the near future, whereas migration between Scotland and the rest of the UK is expected to remain at similar levels to the present, irrespective of the outcome of the 2014 independence referendum
A functional data analysis approach for forecasting population: a case study for the United Kingdom
No full textCohort component models are often used to model the evolution of an age-specific population, and are particularly useful to highlight which demographic component contributes the most to population change. Many methods have been proposed to forecast four demographic components, namely mortality, fertility, emigration and immigration. These existing methods are sometimes considered from a deterministic viewpoint, which in practice can be quite restrictive. The statistical method we propose is a multilevel functional data analytic approach, where the mortality and migration for females and males are modelled and forecasted jointly. The forecast uncertainty associated with each component is incorporated through bootstrapping. Using the historical data for the United Kingdom from 1975 to 2009, we found that the proposed method shows good in-sample forecast accuracy for the holdout data between years 2000 and 2009. Moreover, we produce out-of-sample population forecasts from 2010 to 2030, and compare our forecasts with those produced by the Office for National Statistic
- …
