6 research outputs found
Are Tomato-Spotted Wilt Virus Management Tactics Good Enough?
No full textManagement of tomato-spotted wilt virus is complex and requires more than one treatment for near optimum results. We investigated tomato and pepper growers’ perception on the effectiveness of tactics using Bayesian Logistic regression. The perceived chance that each tactics will control the disease was about a coin toss.Tomato-spotted wilt virus, pest and disease management, Bayesian logistic regression, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Food Security and Poverty, Production Economics, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Risk and Uncertainty,
Increasing Beach Recreation Benefits by Using Wetlands to Reduce Contamination
No full textThe public swimming beach at Maumee Bay State Park (MBSP) on Lake Erie is often posted for occurrences of unsafe levels of bacteria. The main source of bacteria derives from a drainage ditch that discharges near the beach. We have conducted a comprehensive study to determine the feasibility of using a constructed wetland to filter the ditch water, prior to its entry into Maumee Bay. As part of this study, we administered an on-site non-market valuation survey of beach visitors, in which observed and contingent trips to the beach were used to estimate the potential welfare benefits of the restored wetlands. The data were analyzed using three versions of the multivariate Poisson-lognormal (MPLN) model, a random effects count data model. We conclude version one, with flexible covariance structure and vehicle costs of 166 to construct wetlands and improve water quality. The aggregate annual benefit to an estimated 37,300 annual beach visitors is estimated as $6.19 million. The robustness of this estimate to a variety of alternative assumptions is examined.Count data model, Poisson lognormal, on-site sampling, recreation demand, wetland, simulated maximum likelihood, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Environmental Economics and Policy, Public Economics, Q51,
Multi‐Site Bundling of Drought Tolerant Maize Varieties and Index Insurance
No full textDrought Tolerant Maize Varieties (DTMV) and Rainfall Index Insurance (RII) are potential complements, though with limited empirical basis. We employ a multivariate spatial framework to investigate the potential for bundling DTMV with a simulated multi-site and multi-environment RII, designed to insure against mild, moderate and severe drought risk. We use yield data from on-farm trials conducted by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and partners over 49 locations in Eastern and Southern Africa spanning 8 countries and 5 mega-environments (dry lowland, dry mid altitude, wet lower mid altitude, low wetland and wet upper mid altitude) in which 19 different improved maize varieties including DTMV were tested at each location. Spatially correlated daily rainfall data are generated from a first-order two-state Markov chain process and used to calibrate the index and predict yields with a hierarchical Bayes multivariate spatial model. Results show high variation in the performance and benefits of different bundles which depend on the maize variety, the risk layer insured, and the type of environment, with high chances of selecting a sub-optimal and unattractive contract. We find that complementing RII with a specific DTMV produces contracts with lower premiums and higher guaranteed returns especially in dry lowland increasing the chances of scaling up RII within this environment
Incorporating Structure and Stochasticity in Muscadine Grape Enterprise Budget and Investment Analysis
No full textWe developed and investigated a stochastic farm enterprise budget framework that properly accounts for uncertainty in estimates used for investment decisions and structural dependency between yields and prices, which is generally absent in traditional (nonstochastic) budgets. In the first stage, we developed a traditional enterprise budget based on theoretical and accounting methods recommended by the American Agricultural Economics Association (AAEA) Task Force on Commodity Costs and Returns. In the second stage, we developed a probabilistic framework based on estimates derived from the traditional approach, and extended the approach to a stochastic framework through Monte Carlo simulations under specific price elasticity of demand. We applied the framework to estimate the costs, revenues, and conducted investment analysis of producing muscadine grapes (Vitis rotundifolia) in Georgia using a single-trellis system. Finally, we compared results derived from both approaches and revealed muscadine grape production and marketing to be an economically sound investment under multiple scenarios. Overall, the confidence placed on traditional budget estimates and investment outcomes was found to be overestimated at least 3-fold. This suggests that the true uncertainty in the returns and profitability of the business is grossly underestimated, erroneously painting a more promising outlook of investing in muscadine grape production.</jats:p
Self‐protection from weather risk using improved maize varieties or off‐farm income and the propensity for insurance
No full textWe investigate how self-protection from the adoption of Improved Maize Varieties (IMV) and off-farm income affects risk premiums for smallholder maize producers in Uganda. To unbundle these effects, we specify the cost of risk to explicitly capture four risk components - mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis. Using unique plot-level panel data for Uganda, we estimate and test moments of a flexible production function based on an expanded form of the Johnson SU family distribution and proceed to simulate the degree of responsiveness of risk premiums and welfare estimates to marginal changes in the share of land under IMV and off-farm income. Scenarios of joint adoption of IMV accompanied with low and high application of inorganic fertilizer, and the effect of off-farm income when there is high and low supply of farm labor are examined. Results show that the use of IMV and off-farm income substantially reduces risk premiums and the individual effect is much higher under low fertilizer application and high supply of farm labor, respectively. Thus implying that self-protection is likely to reduce the propensity for index insurance especially if its design fails to consider the reduction in downside risk
