1,720,965 research outputs found
Ritual partisans or Rational voters? Voting behaviour in Botswana’s electoral democracy: 2008-2019
Full text linkENGLISH ABSTRACT: Botswana has sustained its multiparty electoral democracy which was established since independence in 1966. However, there are concerns about one party dominance within a multiparty system. The implications are that if voting reflects long-standing social and political identities, then opportunities for minorities to become majorities are slim. Also, democratic consolidation is delayed if voting decisions are based on ascriptive social and long standing entrenched partisan identities.
This study departs from the premise that Botswana has undergone significant socioeconomic transformation over the last thirty years. These events, including increases in the society’s levels of education and access to political information through a wide array of media, hold significant implications for the voting motivations of Botswana’s citizens. Using three cross-sectional Afrobarometer surveys (the 2008, 2014 and 2019 rounds), this study investigates the underlying motivations of Botswana’s voters by analyzing competing theoretical voting models, namely the sociological, partisanship and rational choice theories of voting to assess firstly, which of these theoretical families is the most powerful and persuasive, and secondly, whether Botswana’s socioeconomic developments have changed the explanatory power of voting motivations over time. The study expects to find that Short-term economic and political performance evaluations increase in importance while sociological factors and partisanship decline in their ability to structure vote choice. Moreover, increases in education levels and access to political information should produce skilled voters who rely less on long-standing sociological and partisan cues to guide their voting decisions but more on Short-term rational choice factors. Thus, the study tests whether a process of cognitive mobilization is unfolding in Botswana and is moderating the voting decisions of voters, especially among those who are cognitively mobilized voters. Bivariate and multivariate (logistic regression) techniques are used to analyze the data and address these research objectives.Doctora
Presidential Succession Politics in Botswana: An Appraisal Khama-Masisi Transition
Full text linkPeaceful presidential transitions have been the hallmark of Botswana’s democracy since the country’s independence in 1966. This was in stark contrast to other African countries where leaders overstayed in power and transitions were often conflictual. For most of the postindependence era, Botswana and Mauritius were exceptions to the trend, and Botswana was held in high regard as an exemplar of democracy in Africa. Political power transitions occurred seamlessly between presidents, albeit under one-party dominance. This paper revisits succession politics in Botswana and argues that the long-established practice of smooth presidential succession was interrupted by General Ian Khama’s quest to preserve the Khama dynasty after his mandatory 10-year presidential term ended in April 2018. The paper shows that the preservation of a Khama dynasty was to be founded on Khama’s reign, which was akin to hyper-presidentialism but aided by the country’s Constitution. Khama deviated from the practices of other former presidents by choosing not only to openly and strongly criticize his successor but also to remain actitively engaged in party politics in a bid to dislodge his chosen successor, Mokgweetsi Masisi. 
Management and Mismanagement of Factionalism in Political Parties in Botswana, 1962-2013
Full text linkThis paper is on the management of political parties. It uses Botswana as a case study to demonstrate the utility of formal and informal arrangements. Its argument is that informal mechanisms work well when they supplement rather than replace or compete with formal arrangements. In this regard, the paper’s first argument is that the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) has relied on both formal and informal mechanisms of conflict resolution, and has as a result enjoyed better organizational stability. It also argues that as for the opposition Botswana Peoples Party (BPP) and Botswana National Front (BNF) one has both weak formal and informal mechanisms, and the other has allowed formal and informal mechanisms to work against each other. In both opposition parties, informal mechanisms were not relied upon to resolve internal conflicts, exposing them to political instability
A Coalition for Change? Role Orientations in the 12th Parliament of Botswana
Full text linkBotswana’s parliamentary democracy features a weak parliament that is ineffective in law making and executive oversight. Conventional explanations emphasise a dominant party system that emerged following independence, lack of operational independence from the executive, and the poor capacity of parliament as factors that undermine its effectiveness. Using a novel dataset that is based on interviews with Members of Parliament (MPs) on a wide range of issues, including their role orientations, this article tests several interrelated hypotheses to investigate whether there is an emerging coalition for change. The article finds that there is a group of opposition MPs that constitutes a coalition for change because they are reform oriented, discuss parliamentary affairs and exercise executive oversight. We argue that this coalition for change is marked by a connected communication structure. The study furthers our understanding of the functioning of parliament as a core institution of Botswana’s democracy
The Decline and Aftermath of BDP Partisanship in Botswana
Full text linkThe collapse in the popular vote for the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) in the 2024 elections resulted from short-, medium- and long-term factors. Over the long term, there had been a dramatic decline in the proportion of the electorate who identified with the party. As recently as the early 2000s, Afrobarometer found that about one half of surveyed Batswana said that they felt close to the BDP. This share dropped to about one-fifth by the 2020s. A small part of this was due to generational replacement, as the earlier (and more loyal) generation counted for a smaller and smaller share of the electorate. Most of the decline in BDP partisanship was due to diminishing support within older generations. Some aspects of social and economic change – including urbanisation and the declining significance of agriculture – may have contributed to this. Most of the decline in identification with the BDP was due, however, to worsening assessments of the performance of the party and its leaders. The decline of BDP partisanship means that election outcomes have come to be determined by the votes of non-partisan or independent voters, i.e. voters who do not feel close to the BDP or any of the (then) opposition parties. In the 2020s, few of these non-partisans are swayed by regional, ethnic, or other ‘sociological’ factors. Voting intentions among the rising number of non-partisans correlate with these voters’ assessments of the performance of the president and government and how much they trust the BDP and opposition parties, i.e. with medium-term factors. With reasonable assumptions about short-term effects on turnout and voting preferences, we can simulate the actual 2024 election results
Social Cleavages and Party Alignment in Botswana: Dominant Party System Debate Revisited
Full text linkThis article analyzes the dominant party system in Botswana through a social structural paradigm. Debates surrounding the dominant party system of Botswana typically focus on the relative strength of opposition parties vis-à-vis the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), privileges of incumbency enjoyed by the BDP, the majoritarian electoral system as well as the BDP’s association with the hugely popular first President of the country, Sir Seretse Khama. Based on sociological explanations, this paper investigates whether there is social cleavage structure in Botswana’s party system and whether the same cleavages can explain the distribution of votes and voting patterns. Taking the cleavage thesis as a point of departure, the paper acknowledges the presence of social cleavages but argues that these social divisions have not been effectively mobilised by opposition parties, and through various tactics the ruling BDP has exploited and pacified them in order to mirror the society. The result has been a predominant party system that has characterised party politics for much of the post-independence era despite the declining popular vote of BDP which has been in power since Botswana attained independence in 1966
Rise of Gen Z Voters: Voter Turnout in Botswana’s 2024 General Election
Full text linkBotswana’s 2024 general election resulted in the country’s first-ever change of power from the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) to the opposition coalition Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC). The elections were also significant due to a considerably high voter turnout, despite a slight decline from the 2019 general election. Voter apathy and low voter turnout during elections have been pointed out as some of the weaknesses of Botswana’s electoral democracy. Besides many other causes of voter apathy, a history of one-party dominance has been identified as contributing to voter apathy, as studies found that many people, especially young people, do not participate because of the domination of the BDP. As a result, some scholars concluded that the long-time ruling BDP dominated elections because of the support the party enjoyed from older generations. However, following the historic defeat of the BDP by the UDC, one might wonder if there are significant changes in the demographic composition of voters in the 2024 general election. Based on this premise, this paper analyses voter turnout in the 2024 general election. Using electoral data from the Independent Electoral Commission, the paper compares voter registration and turnout in the different age cohorts. Afrobarometer data and secondary sources are also relied upon to investigate the influence of three theoretical factors: party identification, rational choice, and sociological theories. This paper argues that there was a rise in young and first-time voters in the 2024 general election, and this cohort of voters influenced the election outcomes by voting for the UDC, as its message resonated with this cohort of voters. The findings of the paper hold significant implications for Batswana’s voting behaviour, elections, and the future of Botswana’s democracy
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